Investments for 2008

[peternap]

Has it occurred to you that the reason for the huge push to go to a cashless society is to change from one standard to another. Hell, if you don't have any currency, you don't mind the change.

Today was another rough one. Thankfully ASTI and ASTIZ were strong enough to finish the day up.

I found a dirt bike I wanted but promised myself I wouldn't buy it unless I had extra money. This morning when ASTIZ was doen, I bought 2000 shares at 11.80. I set a limit sell at 12.80 and it went to 12.99 before pulling back.

Guess I get a new dirt bike.

[williet]

Great move 

Enjoy the bike......

[glenn kangiser]

Some money info - gold looks good -- especially if you can find it.   ...and it doesn't cost more to find than it's value.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Gold-and-Oil-Hit-All-Time-High-Prices-3

[williet]

Sooooo??

Ya'll think we've found a bottom to this mess?

[glenn kangiser]

I don't think we've hit the bottom yet.  Feds ar printing money faster than toilet paper.  The dollar has to be devalued by the ton to keep up with the national debt. 

Soon we'll all be millionaires, but it will take half a million to buy a loaf of bread.  Welcome to Mexico.  No -- I think it is just starting to get bad.

[Bishopknight]

I'm with Glenn.

The fed lowering the rate another 50 basis points today has shot gold up to $936 at the moment. Most people on wall street dont think the dollar could collapse. Thats what people said about the Titanic, that it was unsinkable. Most of the lifeboats from the Titanic were a little over half full. The boats could have saved 1100, yet only 700 were saved.

People just don't want to believe the warning signs. I believe were not even close to the bottom.

[glenn kangiser]

I have seen gold predicted to go from $2000 to $2975 in a couple of places.

The US economy is the Titanic.  At ths moment, the iceberg is bouncing up against the side and plugging the hole.  The ice is melting.

[ScottA]

Maybe we can sell the melted ice to California. 

[peternap]

I don't think we are at bottom yet. I'm not sure where it's going to go or when. IF the fed rate cuts were to fix the mortgage problem, we could stabilize the market. It won't fix it though.

We have a drunken sailor in this country. There's no foundation or direction. I can predict what a stock will do for the next day or week and in a few cases, year......but the economy as a whole is just waiting to fall apart.

[glenn kangiser]

Maybe we can sell the melted ice to California. 

Then, you are aware of the 2 billion dollar Katrina fiasco, Scott, plus the 12.5 million for storage, which in a round about way benefited former Military and political figures with business including Dan Quayle's company.  Trucks couldn't even get into New Orleans.  Big business still transfered money from the public to their pockets and the Blacks of New Orleans were liquidated as planned.

Maybe we should all invest in FEMA.

Now -- the iceberg ice -- yeah -- sell it to LA.

[Sassy]

Exxon and Chevron both see profits soar

By Elizabeth Douglass, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
February 2, 2008
Exxon Mobil Corp. shattered its own record as the world's most profitable publicly traded corporation, as rising oil prices helped the company bring in better-than-ever income and revenue for the fourth quarter and 2007.

Irving, Texas-based Exxon's net income rose 3% to $40.6 billion in 2007, surpassing its 2006 record of $39.5 billion.

Chevron Corp. also posted strong earnings despite lower production and lagging profit from making and selling gasoline. Full-year profit at the San Ramon, Calif.-based oil company jumped 9% to $18.7 billion.

That was happy news for company shareholders, but bad news on the public relations front. The robust results, booked amid high gasoline prices and a wobbling U.S. economy, irritated consumer groups and politicians, reigniting calls to eliminate oil industry subsidies.

http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-oil2feb02,1,5140747.story

also Shell 4Q Net Profit Rises 60 Percent to $8.47 Billion  http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/earns_netherlands_shell.html?.v=1

[glenn kangiser]

Gold Price Rigging by Central Banks.

http://bb.bbboy.net/alaskagoldforum-viewthread?forum=2&thread=437

[Redoverfarm]

Although the "stocks" side of my 2008 investments are a little light I have went for a more short term investment.  With the price of food on the rise and an effort to boost the economy I purchased something which I hope will turn 40-50% return in 5-6 months. Initial investment of $1.04 # @ avg 355#. Anticipated 200-225# gain with a resale of $1.10-$1.15 per # . Even with a break-even in the price per # the weight gain itself will yield 45-50% return.  Just food for thought with anyone that has 10-20 acs which they could use is the best return on a small investment on the market today that I am aware of without a large capital outlay.

[MountainDon]

I've never owned a live cow, only parts of dead ones. 

Is that price difference simply a projected, hoped for price, or is there a per pound difference between calves and ready for market?

Do you have to supplement their feed or is it strictly free range? Up in the mountains as soon as the snow and the risk for new snow is gone there'll be a lot of cattle turned loose to range. The ranchers pay something for the right, but it's a pretty good deal if most of them live through to fall. There are always some lost to predators or lightning. Of course they have the expense of trucking them in and out, checking on them, etc. during the summer.

[glenn kangiser]

I have the room but not the fences or the time, and then there's the problem of having to get the cows with short legs on one side to walk on these 40% grades.

[Redoverfarm]

Glenn you could order them from West Virginia as they are already designed with that lateral shortage.  Some people here are like that too from hillbilly genetics.

You could always put up a few strands of electric and get a solar fence charger. 

[Redoverfarm]

The price that is projected is the actual selling price of that catagory of livestock now.  I managed to P/U these for less.  I keep checkingthe USDA Livestock reports for the area ( WV & Va) and I can tell what they are going for .  Even if the price is not higher in the fall and they are sold at the purchase price the additional weight gain will bring in a profit.  The smaller the cattle the more weight gain they will have.  The higher weight the less $$.  I have been lucky that even with 500-550# yearlings will put on 150-200#'s in the summer but the cost on fall sells would be less.  They are usually shipped to feed lots.  The biggest weight gain is up to 700#. After that it is slow going. The price of that over 700 was 80-90 cents compared to the smaller stuff. 

Low maintenance for me as they just range graze.  Some initial cost for "sweet feed" to get them used to people and coming into the corral.  Periodicly through the summer as in the fall they have to be rounded up and loaded so it is sort of like the "carrot" thing.  Some initial vacinations before turning them out.

If there is a downside it would be that don't go away from home and leave your wife to herd them back into the fence while you are gone. 

Don we have a little thing here called "grazing allotments" which is land owned by the NF.  They put them out on bids each year or some are 10 years agreements. They are put out with a maximum # of cattle that can run on that size of land.  For an example there is one that joins my property with is 25 acs.  The minimum bid was $4.25 per unit (cow & calf) which runs from May 1 to Oct 1.  This lot is considered to hold 10 units (10 calves and 10 cows).  I bid it out at $8.50.  Grazing is hard to find and the highest bid was $16.50 per unit.  In essence his cost for one season use will be $825.  Too high for my blood.

[peternap]

Redover, you make me jealous every time I see pics of your place.

[sparks]

 Been watching these, LVLT, and GTE.  Small caps. Nuff said.

PS  Nice Spread Redover!!

[peternap]

I wish I was at the farm full time RF. I think you may have the top investment of the year!

If the markets tank, we all have to eat our investments. Yours taste better than mine.

[muldoon]

redover,

I have been considering some cows for the 18 acres I have but I still have some obstacles (mostly learning related) to overcome before I do so.  I do not live out there, so I am not sure what needs to happen to ensure the safety and health of any animals I leave by themselves.  Fencing is good, grass is good, there are two ponds so I assume water is ok.  Can you suggest any books on the subject for a first timer?  I am mostly interested in obtaining agricultural exemption for taxes and keeping the grass down low.  Getting a decent investment return is just a bonus for me. 

Aside from that, puts on homebuilders were great last fall, puts on financial institutions were good this winter.  Both of those are looking pretty lean now as those equities are moving in channel and trading instead of trending now.  For this summer I think puts on the retailers are going to be lucrative as sales are slowing and discretionary spending constricts. 

[Redoverfarm]

muldoon I am sure there are books on the subject but I was self taught and grew up around the farming industry.  A good place to start would be with your local university extension agent.  There is also a Farm Bureau that has a message forrum to which you could visit. 

As far as health & welfare.  If you have good fence, water and enough grass to support ( acs vs. head) then you are good to go.  If you buy locally then chances are that you will not get any head that are shipped in for the livestock sales and they will not be prone to black-leg and other diseases.  They are a grazing animal and should be vaccinated as such being wormed.  Either injection or epideral application such as "Ivomec" that is just poured onto the hide(spinal area). I also vaccinate for pink eye.  These precautions are done before turning them out for the first time.  Then a mineral block or granular for salt intake during the summer.  Then about the last of July or first of August I put a wormer block out as the previous worm application has worn off.  This will ensure that they continue to add weight.

You could just check on them periodically to make sure that the fence has not got broken down, water supply good and the grass is still ample to graze. 

I think I would start with the written information and then visit a couple local farmers. They can give you alot of insight and guidance. They might want to put you to work if you catch them at hay season or something else.  Generally farmers are good people and always willing to lend a hand.  As far as transporting them generally depending on the type of friendship you can develope they would probably be willing to transport to & fro for you at a reasonable rate or lend a trailer for a DIY.  Go to a couple of livestock sales just to get an idea of the breed, size and price.  Just stay away from Dairy cattle as they generally do not put the weight on or the resale value is considerably lower.  Get beef cattle breeds. 

If you have any further q feel free.  I don't have all the answers but I can probably tell you what not to do.   

John

[Sassy]

The End of Democracy
London, England
Friday, May 9, 2008       http://www.dailyreckoning.com/

---------------------

*** The war between the 'flations drags on...nobody is going to cut back on spending unless they are forced to...

*** Inflation has become globalized – and soon it will come in, not as a kitty, but as a mean panther...

*** In the United States, you are on the pot-holed highway to Hell...and more thoughts, insights and advice to take you into the weekend!

The markets didn't reveal anything very telling yesterday. The Dow rose 52 points. The dollar held steady. Oil remained near its all time record of $123. And gold went up $10.

So far, things have worked out more or less as we expected. The "war" between inflation and deflation has produced plenty of noise and casualties...but no decisive victory.

We guessed that the Fed would be far more interested in fighting a deflationary recession than in fighting an inflationary boom. America's central bankers see their mission in three parts – to protect the value of the dollar...to protect the banks...and finally to make sure that all politicians are re-elected and all Fed governors are reappointed. This last part of their mission leads them to ignore the first part. In order to help the career prospects of politicians and their Fed appointees, the latter must try to keep the economy moving forward – even to its own destruction. In the present context, that means holding off badly needed corrections. Consumers, government and business are all deep in debt. But none of them are going to cut back on spending unless they have to. A correction would force the issue; so, it is to be avoided at all costs. And the most direct and immediate cost is what is supposed to be the Fed's number one priority...the U.S. dollar.

We guessed that inflation would push up commodity, oil, gold and consumer prices...more than it would help the real economy and stock prices. That seems to have happened too. Commodities, oil and gold have all soared. The economy, meanwhile, is growing more slowly than the population. And stocks rallied and retreated – and ended up about where they were 10 years ago.

But what about the kind of inflation people worry about? What about consumer price inflation? How come consumer prices have not gone up more? 

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Modern democracy, like modern capitalism, is a self-limiting ailment...and this fact is becoming clearer to the United States with each passing day. Bill Bonner explains...  con't @ http://www.dailyreckoning.com/

THE END OF DEMOCRACY
by Bill Bonner

This week marked a milestone in the Western history. On the 5th of May 1789, the Estates General convened in Versailles.

In the popular mind, if there is one, mankind has been on a steady upward slant. From single-celled amoeba to Homo ergaster to Barack Obama...from the chubby carved madonnas found in caves to Caravaggio's Madonna found in Sant'Agostino to Madonna herself, whereabouts unknown...from crossing the Red Sea out of bondage in Egypt to crossing the Rubicon to crossing the Delaware, it has been a march from the dark depths of history into the sunlight of modern democratic capitalism and consumer credit.

'It's all good,' as they say in America.

Yes, of course, there are occasional instances of backsliding...even a Roosevelt or a Robespierre could be born with a prehensile tail. But the progress of the race continued. Tribal chiefs in skins gave way to emperors with purple on their backs. Wars, revolutions...one regime was replaced by a better one; tyranny butted heads with freedom until, finally, in the Year of Our Lord, 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed...leaving only one system resplendent, triumphant... modern capitalist democracy.  con't @ http://www.dailyreckoning.com/