Here comes the dead cat bounce

[peternap]

Let's see how long it holds

[considerations]

Eh?

[peternap]

Eh?

Sorry! The stock market, but it ain't much of a bounce.

[muldoon]

bond pit looks unhappy.
the ten year is up at 2.86, from yesterdays close at 2.70, a vote of no confidence on this housing plan from the debt market. 

I thought he was funny this morning from the merc
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853&play=1
if he has a tea party, I'll fly my whole family there. 

the dollar surge is unwinding a bit, which is good overall. 
gold and silver are off the recent highs, fear decreasing.

markets hovering .. cant decide what to do. 

- the dead cat bounce reference comes from an observation that when you throw a dead cat off the roof it will bounce.  The corollary being when the market tanks big it usual will surge back up immediately due to bottom feeders and channel buying.  It doesn't mean the direction has changed, it just means that people are betting that when we reach extremes, the trend usually reverts. 

[peternap]

Looking at the volume, there isn't even much bottom feeding going on. I've been hearing about a bottom all morning. Looks like a thin Ice in April bottom to me.

[Windpower]

The last 90 minutes will tell the tail

There are those that call 7600 a resistance point

a close below 7600 would indicate a further fall to 6800

"My latest polling of ex contributors/participants in the old University of Colorado Longwave Econ group from the mid through late 1990's) is that we drop from here down to around 5,800 on the Dow (maybe as low as 4,400, or only 6,800 and then we get a real strong pop up to the  Dow 10,000 region, but then by 2010 the Dow could be down testing under the 1,000 level. "

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[muldoon]

windpower, aside from resistance/support levels, what other TA are you watching?  Do you use Elliot wave?  Fibonacci? 

peter, Doesnt look like much of anything anywhere to be honest.  no volume in equities, no interest in metals, oil, or bonds.  dollar is selling, and it looks to be rolling into yen,pound a bit.  Not major, just correcting from oversold I think.  but for the most part alot of nothing anywhere.  the financials are getting movement, getting hammered actually.  makes sens tho, they just got told they get to share the losses on principle write downs.  if they are insolvent now, how does taking away revenue stream help them? 

[Windpower]

"windpower, aside from resistance/support levels, what other TA are you watching?  Do you use Elliot wave?  Fibonacci? "

I am no expert on either but George Ure the guy at urbansurvival uses both to too look at things
as well as his other contacts in the financial world
he seems to be on target lately

And his daily blog is a pretty entertaining start to the morning

The other source I have been reading lately is the Global European Anticipation Bulletin GEAB  (200 Euro's per year --that was painful)

they have been spot on since 2006

Not pleasant but spot on


http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-September-2008-Phase-of-collapse-of-US-real-economy_a1298.html

[Windpower]

eta

I am trying to learn this stuff in a crash course sort of way as retirement looms and the 401K tanks

not a good combo

[peternap]

eta

I am trying to learn this stuff in a crash course sort of way as retirement looms and the 401K tanks

not a good combo

Good luck learning it. No fundamentals, no reason and no real guidance. The experts are lost so I just have to guess.

I don't think today's close will mean much. I expect we'll have a feel good rally next week but it won't hold. I've tried to read the bailout and stimulus bills...which aren't light reading, but they just can't work from what I see. 

Aside from where Obama thinks this money is coming from, the stimulus is way too dependant on the cooperation of lenders. That's not going to happen.

In order to turn the economy, the housing market has to turn. If you look at the last 6 or 7 years, individual income has actually gone down. What was making the economy golden was the housing market and that was a pipe dream that had to crash. I don't expect it to come back to anything close to where it was. 

[Windpower]

Good points Peter

Now I realize that I put way too much faith in the 401K plan 'experts'

Some would say I have been fortunate to have 'only' lost 30% since Dec 2007

still painful tho

I now have it 100% in capital preservation (I lost the 30% while it was in what T Rowe Price described as their retired portfolio -- the one they recomended for someone already retired ---nice, NOT)

at this point I am not sure that even the capital preservation fund is 'safe'

but we soldier on --- hopefully we'll be in our 'apartment' as we are calling it by year end

the apartment is to be a finished 40' X 40' half of the pole barn at the farm

going to be a busy year

[ScottA]

I cashed out my 401k in the spring of 2007. I was having a flashback to 2001 and I'm glad i bailed out. I lost 1/2 my money in 2001. I got out clean this last time. Avoid banks like the plague. This thing's far from over and as soon as they have your money they act like it is their money.