Lots going on today

[peternap]

I should be out walking but I've been pouring over charts and reports for the last 3 hours....and I think I'll put it off until later.

The jobs report will be out soon and it is going to be worse than expected I think. If it goes over 7%, look for a bad market reaction. I'm not sure what will happen if it's less than that because overseas markets were not good.

That's short term though. I'm sure we are in for at least weakness (That's being kind) for the first half of the year and I strongly suspect, the entire year.

My opinion right now is that anything longer term (Market wise) than a week, is a poor investment.

I went gold and silver shopping yesterday and there's damned little available here. Everybody seems to be buying it. I also wonder where the price is going if I do scrounge some good deals. I did find some coin silver fot 10.25 per 1.00. That's not too bad but he only had 100.00 worth. (1025.00 cost).

Lots to do today!

[harry51]

Peter, what do you think about 1 oz silver rounds at this time? What's a fair premium on those over bullion price, in your opinion?

[peternap]

Years ago, I bought a lot of them. They are really only bullion even though they have pretty pictures. I wouldn't pay any premium at all.

You have to think about what the resale would be and I think you'll find they only count as an ounce of pure silver.

[Jens]

I don't know about anyone else, but we will be investing every "spare" dime in seeds, livestock, and helping those we can.  I feel like we have been living in a recession off and on for the last ten years.  Anybody else feel that way?  I also feel sometimes, like I actually lived through the depression, but maybe that's because of the way my grandparents raised me.

I need to pick up a rifle and ammo too, maybe a shotgun as well.  I don't like the idea of having a gun in the house sometimes (I think that sometimes it invites trouble), but I do need to be able to go hunting.  Some friends of ours have a 500 acre family farm, and we can hunt out there.  Sure would be nice to have a deer in the freezer!

[muldoon]

Harry,

Here is a site that shows spot price and then also scans ebay auctions to show the premium to spot in the real world.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_silver_coins.aspx?co_id=0

On the numismatics, it looks like premiums range from 25% to 100% over spot in general these days. 

[Squirl]

The silver is a good price.  Don't forget it was selling at $20 a few months ago.  (I bought a few)  The nice thing about rounds, at least in my state, is there is no sales tax.  They go for the same price as the bars.

Jens,
Investing in any hard assets is a good investment if you believe inflation is going to rise.  The value of most hard assets tends to rise with inflation.  So if you believe inflation may spike, seeds, livestock, and a firearm will all rise in value as your money becomes worthless.  I don't think you are far off in your observations.  If you are anything but the upper middle class, you have been getting squeezed for the past 8-10 years.  Real median wages has fallen over this time.  So I will make the assumption that you are probably in the same boat as the rest of us.

Now I hate to start off on what can be a heated subject to many here.  I realize your reservation about having firearms in the home, especially with children around.  Although my family had them, my father had great reservations and does not particularly like them to this day.  Many of his friends were killed in hunting and other gun accidents while growing up. I have one now, but if I had children I would be worried.  Kids can do crazy stuff.  One kid my father knew was killed because they were setting off bullets with a hammer.  It is your right to posses one, but not your obligation.  

This is my opinion, but I have come across this advice from many experts more knowledgeable than I. With that disclaimer aside. If you were only going to own one gun, get a shotgun first.  It is the most versatile.  You can legally hunt almost any game any where.  Rifles can have many legal restrictions in hunting.  Second, they are usually the least expensive.  You can pick up a good used one that shoots straight for around $100.  Third, in the EXTREMELY rare event that it will needed to be used for home defense, the shot usually does not penetrate walls like a bullet, and is less likely to hit a family member.  Also a big bang can do more to scare a trespasser, and the shot spread gives you a more likely chance for a hit in a tight quarter.
As far as for hunting get a 12 or a 20, both work.  People swear up and down for a 12 gauge, but trust me a 20 does the job.  I have an old 20 side by side.  It has killed every single type of game in my area from a bear to a squirrel.

Now, you don't need a gun to hunt.  If you are interested in wild game there are many alternatives.  Many of these can be cheaper and you can begin practicing immediately. They are also great past times.  There are traps.  Most survivalists realize that this is usually one of the most productive forms of harvesting game.  Once you get the hang of it you can set the traps and collect the food with a leisurely walk through the woods.  There is also archery.  I have found good bows and arrows on craigslist for $25.  You would be surprised how many people by these, realize they take an investment in time and just dump them later.  Don't forget fish can be a better source of protein.  Lean with Omega 3 fatty acids. The most efficient is a net, but this is not always legal.

Sorry to hijack the thread peter.

[peternap]

Squirl.................That's a hard post to improve on!

[muldoon]

Investing in any hard assets is a good investment if you believe inflation is going to rise.  The value of most hard assets tends to rise with inflation.  So if you believe inflation may spike, seeds, livestock, and a firearm will all rise in value as your money becomes worthless.

Yes, metals would do well in inflation.  inflation can also be described as a declining dollar.  so metals would do well if you expect the us dollar to decline in value. 

metals would be great if you expect the dollar to crash, if you think a new currency is in the future, metals should preserve the underlying wealth through the transition. 

metals are a good hedge against geo-political instability.  Here or abroad.  Another large country such as china, russia, germany or england were to crash their people would wish to hold gold.  Supply and demand says if many people want such an item, the price goes up. 

--
Those are the reasons I see why gold/silver could be a good investment.

I do not believe that inflation is anywhere on the horizon.  I do not believe that even if more money did enter the system that it would reach the people in a meaningful manner.  Even if the funds were dropped from helicopters, who is going to pay americans a hundred dollars an hour for anything when the same could be done in mexico or china or anywhere for pennies. 

While a dollar crash is possible, I struggle to see it as well based on whats going on right now.  Currencies are evaluated against each other or how strong they are relative to others.  Consider england being told yesterday you are unworthy of the euro http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4161945/ECB-deems-Britain-unworthy-of-euro.html
Consider the plight of China, who has announced capital controls to stem capital fleeing its borders, and publically announced the likelyhood of riots this year as people go hungry.  I have never seen such a candid statement from a communist country in my life.  It has reached critical mass.  http://finance.indiainfo.com/2009/01/07/0901071532_chinas_economic_woes_may_trigger_major_unrest.html

We are all crashing together, the dollar is gaining strenght (for now at least) because we are holding stronger than others.  Our exporting of the jobs to other countries over the last 3 decades is exactly what is keeping us above water oddly enough.  We can give up over consuming much easier than they can give up supporting themselves. 

The last item I speculated was geo-political hedge.  sure, it's still on the table.  I could also see it in reverse.  Take saudi arabia, who openly admits that it costs 2 dollars to retrieve and process a barrell of oil.  However, no one in the kingdom works.  It is completely state funded.  To run the country they need oil at 55 a barrel.  It is getting tough over there, and as other countries are forced to feed their citizens - it is possible that liquidating gold is on the table. 

--
I agree with Jens on this.  While metals has potential to hold value and even grow in value, I also see some reasons why it will not happen.  seeds, tools, livestock, arable land, water - I see no reason these will lose value.  They also have the advantage in that you do not need to find a market (a buyer) to get use and value from them.  They represent their value directly as opposed to metals which are only worth what the buyer will pay. 

[MountainDon]

I need to pick up a rifle and ammo too, maybe a shotgun as well.  I don't like the idea of having a gun in the house sometimes (I think that sometimes it invites trouble), but I do need to be able to go hunting. 

Yes, a hot topic. And I disagree that gun ownership or a gun in the house invites trouble.

I believe there's more to be gained from educating kids early on about guns, their safe handling, how to shoot them, how to care for them, and so on than there is to not have guns, to not talk about them or tell them that guns are bad, evil, etc. Guns are tools that can be dangerous just like your planer, circular saws and air nailer can be dangerous. To me it's a perfect opportunity for more family quality time. With small children around I believe the guns and ammunition should be kept locked up, away from the kids and any of their friends. By locked up I mean behind a locked door, in a locked cabinet or gun safe. Some trigger locks are worse than none, IMO.

In a related vein, we believe that if your kids go to play at others homes you should ask the parents there about whether or not they have guns in their home and if they do how they are secured. It could be interesting to learn just how many gun owners there might be in your neighborhood.

[harry51]

Jens, I'm a lifetime shooter and firearms enthusiast. I agree with you 100% that guns and unsupervised, uneducated kids can be a disaster. FWIW, here are a couple ideas:

Buy a gun safe. Some are not real expensive, but will keep the kids out. Or pick a cupboard or closet with a good stout door, and install a good deadbolt lock on it. Keep the key on your keyring. That way if you're not home, the key isn't home either to tempt curious young minds.  Keep the firearms there. build a stout box with a hasp for ammo and use a combination padlock. Put it in the locked closet.  

Train the kids. Stress that they are NEVER to touch ANY firearm ANYPLACE unless with a supervising adult approved of by you. The worst scenario is more than one kid playing with a gun. This can obviously happen pretty much anywhere. Stress that they must leave the area immediately if another kid is playing with a gun, or if they find a gun, and in either case, tell a responsible adult as soon as possible.

Satisfy their curiosity. If they want, and they're big enough, make the firearm safe and let them handle it. This is a good time for them to learn to handle all firearms as if they are loaded, and to always keep the muzzle pointed in a safe direction.

If they want, let them watch you shoot. Be sure they have eye and ear protection. If there's more than one kid, it's good to have another adult on hand.

If they're physically big enough and interested, find a qualified firearms instructor and enroll them in a class.  

I see that Don outtyped me on some of this, but here it is anyway. Bottom line is, beyond filling the freezer, shooting can be a great sport you can pursue all your life, women can compete head to head with men and win, and it can lead to lots of quality family time if there's interest.

[harry51]

Thanks for the input on the silver, guys. It's appreciated!

H.

[Squirl]

I agree with Don that guns are tools to get a job done.  To me they are like a power tool or car.  And just like any tool, if you are uncomfortable using it, there may be other ways to get the job done.  With many of the threads I have seen on here, saying you are uncomfortable with a firearm may sound to some the same as if you said you don't like keeping a circular saw around.  Just like building something, you don't have to use power tools.  And just like certain tools and methods you will find people enthusiastic about their own. 

Don't get me wrong.  I enjoy shooting and hunting with a gun.  But when I have the time, I enjoy the challenge and the skill it takes to get game without one.  And you never know when the skills might come in handy.

Tell you the truth, this is probably because I learned it that way first.  I learned outdoor skills in reverse from what many people I meet did.  Many people I meet learned to shoot, then hunt with a gun, then a bow, then trap, then snares.  I learned in the exact opposite order.

On side safety notes.  Don't forget to lock up your ammo.  These are explosives designed to go off with an impact.  I have known many injuries from children playing with ammunition because their parents stressed "gun" safety and forgot about the other piece.

Also make sure that everyone has access to the firearm has as much knowledge and comfort with it as you.  One of the #1 accidents is a spouse killing the gun owner in the dark.  I know it can seem like a likely excuse, but it happens more often than killing an intruder.

[Jens]

I'm sitting here kinda chuckling to myself about the fact that I wasn't even thinking about the kid factor when making that remark.  I know it is a big issue, and have pretty much come to the conclusion to raise my kids the same way that I was raised, to always have the utmost respect for any weapon.  I was referring to the thought I have, that if it is for defensive purposes, it's kinda opening up opportunities to have to be defensive, IMO.  I look at it kinda like somebody going through life only ever wanting to do good to other people, and having a great portion of good come their way as well.  We didn't even start locking the doors on our house until just a couple of months ago!  And we live in a rough neighborhood!  

To get back on subject though, I think the best investment one can make in their future, is to learn how to take more enjoyment out of life; work to live, don't live to work;  realize that riches of any physical sort are only temporary fixes, floureshes, and parasitic additions to ones life;  and learn to do for yourselves, what you would usually have others do for you, and find enjoyment in the simplicity of the occupation.

My friend Dino, on the other hand, is buying as many guns, and as much ammo as he can, stashing a lot of it, and pretty much waiting for the fight to come to him.  Gold and silver too, although they have dropped in price recently, so he's not so hot on them.  I guess you could say we are pretty polar opposite!  

Plus, I don't have any money to actually invest in the standard form of investments that society deems wise.

It is nice to read other peoples opinions on wise investment though, thank you Peter, and others.

[glenn kangiser]

Since we can't control how the rest of the world raises their families and the values that are or, ARE NOT instilled in them, I think we owe it to our kids to teach them gun safety and to get them familiar with guns in the case that some day they should need the  knowledge and not have it.

 

[peternap]

Since we can't control how the rest of the world raises their families and the values that are or, ARE NOT instilled in them, I think we owe it to our kids to teach them gun safety and to get them familiar with guns in the case that some day they should need the  knowledge and not have it.

 

That's true Glenn. My position on guns is well established  but Squirl laid it out very well. While anyone that says no one should have guns, is on my idiot list....I don't think there is any obligation to own one if they feel it improper. That's a personal decision.

Not teaching your children how to safely use a gun, IMHO, is like not teaching them to swim. I feel it's a bad idea and poor judgment and it may get the child killed.....but they are their children and I dislike interfering in someones family.

My most sincere hope as a pro gun person, father, grandfather and human being....is that everyone buys a gun for protection of himself and family, recreation and food gathering, and teaches each and everyone in his family how to use it safely and efficiently..and lastly to use it for what it is intended rather than an ego booster.