Hello Gustav

muldoon · August 26, 2008, 09:47:37 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ National Hurricane Center

A new storm out there, this one looks like it's gonna be nasty. Made it's way to hurricane this morning, expected landfall next week so it should have plenty of time to get ugly. These storms change quickly and predictions this early are usually useless, but it does look like continental US bound, and it looks like it will suck for someone.

Also, keep this one in mind - these are the oil rigs and production platforms. Traders are buzzin today, brent crude at ICE has shot up from 112 to 116 at the same time the US dollar went up big on bad news from Germany on their gdp. For the last 5 weeks oil has traded the other direction from us dollar so this is a notable change in pattern.

Sassy · August 26, 2008, 11:45:21 AM

Didn't know there were so many oil rigs down there - the storm could be pretty nasty... It was so nice

to fill up my car's tank for $3.89/gal the other day

August 26, 2008, 12:31:56 PM

That is a lot of little yellow dots. I had no idea there were so many. One of my neighbors is a helicopter pilot and he works in that area. Fly's to Louisiana and works for two weeks then he has two weeks to come home and relax. I guess it gets pretty hairy flying around those rigs when the weather gets bad.

desdawg · August 28, 2008, 06:30:27 AM

Apparently that area accounts for 25% of US oil production. The storm hasn't arrived yet but the oil price is getting adjusted for it in advance.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/28/markets/oil/index.htm

desdawg · September 01, 2008, 10:13:24 AM

Three years ago New Orleans had Katrina. Homes were destroyed. Insurance companies paid off and a lot of those homes were basically sold to the insurers. People went right back knowing the potential for this to occur again. I have to wonder why these folks deliberately put themselves in harms way once again. The rebuilding isn't complete from Katrina and I suppose the expectation is that the US taxpayer will foot the bill once again. I am a US taxpayer and I don't want to do it. I want people to be responsible for their own decisions the same way I have to be. I reckon this will be an unpopular post but I am making it anyway.

September 01, 2008, 10:19:46 AM

You have a point, des.

Maybe the government dispersing the blacks so far they could never make it back , in order for big money , the mob and developers to steal their land was to their advantage.

Maybe in having to start out in a new land from scratch was better than coming back to NOLA and loosing whatever money or aid they may have gained in 3 years.

ScottA · September 01, 2008, 12:02:34 PM

Cheney and Haliburton must be drooling right now.

glenn kangiser · September 01, 2008, 12:14:15 PM

Don't forget Blackwater - Mercenaries are always needed in the US after a disaster. Just ask our person sitting in the office of President.

MountainDon · September 01, 2008, 07:27:29 PM

Quote from: desdawg on September 01, 2008, 10:13:24 AM
se the expectation is that the US taxpayer will foot the bill once again. I am a US taxpayer and I don't want to do it. I want people to be responsible for their own decisions the same way I have to be. I reckon this will be an unpopular post but I am making it anyway.

I'll join you desdawg so you don't have to feel alone in your unpopularity.

I don't think people should be encouraged to move back into areas that are below sea level. Same goes for costs that slide into the sea when it rains too much.

We're not in the same boat as The Netherlands where they don't have enough land above sea level. I've been of that mind for years, Katrina simply validated it for me. The costs for building and maintaining levees are out of this world. If anyone want to live there they should have to buy their own insurance that would fully cover rebuilding. Building in a flood zone anywhere is foolhardy and the government (with dollars taxed from you and I) should not be expected to "bail out" anyone, doubly so after the first time.

September 01, 2008, 08:34:54 PM

Quote from: desdawg on September 01, 2008, 10:13:24 AM
Three years ago New Orleans had Katrina. Homes were destroyed. Insurance companies paid off and a lot of those homes were basically sold to the insurers. People went right back knowing the potential for this to occur again. I have to wonder why these folks deliberately put themselves in harms way once again. The rebuilding isn't complete from Katrina and I suppose the expectation is that the US taxpayer will foot the bill once again. I am a US taxpayer and I don't want to do it. I want people to be responsible for their own decisions the same way I have to be. I reckon this will be an unpopular post but I am making it anyway.

I've lived on the MS coast and in New Orleans for a long time, and worked in New Orleans to deconstruct and reconstruct in sensible, sensitive, ways after Katrina. My own home was 21 feet above sea level and built in 1888; my neighbor's in 1836. Others were even older. Harm's way you say? The water never got even close before, in anyone's memory for many generations.
If more than 1/50th of the bizillions in government money went to anything of lasting value - knowledge, building techniques, etc., I'd be surprised.

And, while we're at it, the insurance companies did not pay off. And they are not going back now. Bay Saint Louis MS and nearby towns look like France in 1947. We're building here and there, higher, stronger, and much much smaller.
There's plenty of reason to live in low country, and ways to do so sensibly and economically. See, for example, the practical work of Dennis Livingston et.al ( www.afhh.org/res/res_pubs/shrfdh.pdf ) We who live here are about as interested as you seem to be over getting help from US taxpayers via government. Americans, and plenty of people form other places: non-profits, church groups, fire and police, etc. helped us personally and practically, and we are perpetually grateful.

ScottA · September 01, 2008, 10:11:54 PM

I belive people should be allowed to build and live where they want. But at the same time taxpayers should not have to pay when those homes are washed away. The sad part is it looks like most of the federal aid after Katrina went to developers and federal contractors so they could make profits not to help people.

StinkerBell · September 01, 2008, 10:39:42 PM

I agree with ScottA.
It not just NOLA I have issue with. It is also California's fires/land slides in the same Malibu areas. I recall a man saying in will be his 3rd time rebuilding and I am sure it will be with tax payer subsidized money.

desdawg · September 01, 2008, 10:50:18 PM

I can appreciate the "This is my home sentiment." but I have to say I don't understand wanting to live under the constant threat of a natural disaster. Get me once shame on you, get me twice shame on me. Our politico's can find enough ways to squander our tax dollars without FEMA. I also know that government agencies are not at all efficient or business like. This is a big country and there is lots of real estate out there in much safer places. I guess I am fortunate. I have spent my entire life in the western states where I haven't had to deal with natural catastrophies. 19 years in Montana, 14 years in Colorado and now the last 24 in AZ. I did get awakened one night when I was pretty young by tremors from an earthquake in Yellowstone National Park over 300 miles away. Here no tornadoes, no cyclones, no tsunamis, just 104-108 degrees for about half the summer. And the winters are great. I can't think of any reason why I would want to live below sea level.
But my point was I don't want to pay for those who insist on it. Even if FEMA didn't do much it still cost plenty. The evacuation of the last couple of days had to cost plenty.

glenn kangiser · September 01, 2008, 11:11:17 PM

miss_coast_cabin, I agree with you. We take care of our own here and I don't want the government handouts either.

They can do their share to fight our fires - I do at least mine. Usually it is someone else who started them.

If government gives you something it is only because they have or will take at least twice as much from you.

September 02, 2008, 06:29:46 AM

After all the anticipation oil prices actually dropped $7.00/barrel or so when the storm didn't shut down production. Now it looks like other non oil stocks will go up today.

ScottA · September 02, 2008, 04:17:01 PM

So we basicly paid an extra $.20 per gallon this past week for nothing? Figures

desdawg · September 02, 2008, 09:01:42 PM

I don't think it catches up to the pump price that fast Scott. but I am telling you whoever controls the press can control the money if they just issue the right series of press releases. The investors in the different markets are all ruled by rumor and inuendo. And if it is in print somewhere it is gospel that is until the next contradictory release comes around.

ScottA · September 03, 2008, 11:41:15 AM

What's left of Gustav has parked itself on top of us today. Lots of rain around here.

muldoon · September 03, 2008, 12:36:13 PM

oil never trended up before or during gustav, what we saw at the pumps (still seeing for me) is not tracking with rboc futures. Oil is now trading around 105-107 a barrel, down again.

Some reasons why .. strong dollar. seriously, the dollar has been gaining strenght for the past month and a half. Were now back where we were around January in the 78ish on the DX chart. As for why, I would say that the US is indeed screwed still - not much has changed there - however, the rest of the world is even more screwed without the ever consuming american buying up their crap. Other currencies are indeed doing what we did the last 9 months - I don't see this being an overnight trend, I think it has legs. As the dollar gets valued higher, the assets that are priced in it go down in price. Darling in the UK making comments about worst in 60 years doesn't help their currency at all. Brown bailing out 1bill in mortgages doesnt either. In fact, it pulls the rug out from under the pound. I wouldn't be too happy about the dollar surging - it has some negative effects as well such as making our exports more expensive overseas. Could be bad for multinationals.

Demand. yes, demand is down across the board. Not just in the US, but in China which is the real story. For the second month in a row, manufacturing production is down again. China is using less because people everywhere are buying less. This can lead to a spiral situation. When demand falls, so does price.

Finally, gustav was weaker than expected - no severe damage done so price runup was absent. Also today http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080903/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_080903120958&printer=1;_ylt=Ah1ggnd16k5sbO__F4owSqCoOrgF the strategic taps were opened just in case of any shortages. Its keeping prices down as well.

There is a reason why prices dont show up at the pump immediatly. The refinery must purchase crude at one price, then make it into fuel, then sell it. The difference between the cost of crude and the cost of fuel is called the crack spread. If oil drops in price before it is resold after refining the cost will still be somewhat higher to meet margins of the materials. As crude prices fall, gas prices fall in time. It takes a week or two to get that product into the retails outlets. As for the other way around, they may anticipate a rise and move faster -- but it tends to level out fairly quickly.