Market Just Closed

[peternap]

It's a wonderful night for eyebrows. It's a wonderful night for teeth! It's a wonderful night for Grinch Night! Their troubles will now commence, oh I wouldn't go out on a night like this for sixty dollars and sixty cents!

[Windpower]

Gold went down too


maybe those rumors of China selling phony gold bars and coins are getting legs

well according to some 'wave and cycle guys' it is either down some more to  4400 or a brief runup to 10,000 before the real crash to 2000

I sure am sleeping better now that I am out of stocks (well ok I still have a small IRA mutal fund )

buy seeds, plant gardens

[peternap]

I'm seeing more evidence that the bucket has a hole in it. One thing that gives a falce of security, is Biffy and Skippy ignoring any problems.

Dish Direct lost 100,000 customers and Clearwire has been running every kind of promotion they can.

Looks like Skippy is tightening his belt.

[StinkerBell]

Yet the Secretary of State just pledged a Billion Dollars to help the Gaza Strip. How can we afford this?

[ScottA]

Looks to me like they are trying to spend as much money as they can before the system implodes and takes them with it.

[bayview]

Gold went down too

Brokers have to "settle up" at the end of the day . . . They have to sell their gold to generate cash.  I have noticed that gold goes down on a bad stock day.

[John Raabe]

How low can it go?

I dug out this very interesting chart from 2002



All those years you've been saving for retirement? Ha!

The only thing that is wrong with this chart at this point is that the red arrow is going down faster than expected. At this rate we'll get to DOW 3000 sooner than 2014!

History isn't repeating itself, but it is rhyming!

[muldoon]

John, I hate to say it but dow3000 may come before December 2009 at this rate. 

Windpower, I cannot see anyway possible to zoom back up to 10,000 from here.  In fact, I see a Wiley Coyote moment from here.   I think I understand the ew wave theory, ... but to get to 10k, you have to have capital.  I dont think were looking at something that is going to fit in the norms of what patterns look like over the last 30 years as they never had to take into account the banking system being broken and countries defaulting in mass. 

Gold is an asset, it had a good run and is giving some of it up.  Nothing ever goes up (or down) in a straight line. 


here is a chart I have been watching too.  It compares our current slippage to some past events in terms of severity and duration.

[peternap]

Interesting Chart John!

What concerns me are the unknowns in this.

We've never had a "World Economy" before.

We always had a large percentage of small business people that served a smaller area.

As far as I know, we've never had negative real estate equity..or at least to this extent.

We have never had the amount of Government regulation choking the life out of private enterprise, before.

We have never had personal debt like we do now.

We've never had a National Debt like this before.

The list goes on.

To me the downward direction of the economy is like coming off a mountain in the dark. When you start your descent, you have no idea if you have enough rope to reach the bottom.....until you reach the bottom or run out of rope.

[StinkerBell]

Anyone else have the song "Free Falling" by Tom Petty playing in their head today?  I did. 

[John Raabe]

Here is the optimistic chart from dshort.com (Thanks for the link Muldoon!)



This chart is so different because it takes out the changes in calculating inflation that have in place the last few years.

Here is another chart and direct link to dshort.com (The chart below is not live.)

[peternap]

But then again John, this is a little different:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Dword-Will-recession-apf-14519637.html
Most postwar U.S. recessions have come after the Fed has increased interest rates to cool down rapid economic growth and inflation. Later, the Fed lowers rates and helps restart the economy, with the housing and auto sectors -- both sensitive to interest rates -- leading the way.

This time is different: As Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., said, "Our housing and auto sectors are leading us not out of recession, but into it."

What's more, the Fed no longer has the ability to kick-start recovery by lowering interest rates. The central bank has already effectively lowered the short-term rates it controls to zero.

[Mike 870]

Want to see something scary, look at the Dow last 30 years in relation to average household debt.  They are inversely proportional (if you have debt be a negative number).

[John Raabe]

Maybe I should change my tagline to "none of us are as dumb as all of us" 

It certainly seems like the "wisdom of crowds" has failed us. Remember when the American consumer could be counted on to go out and spend money?

[considerations]

I don't have debt, but i still have an IRA, sort of.      I couldn't afford (I thought) to cash it out.  Now I wonder if I missed an option.

[glenn kangiser]

I think the wisdom of the crowds is to be cautious now.  I get loan calls every few days to week, but I won't borrow at this time.