Gardyloo

[peternap]

That's the warning that was shouted in Scotland when they were about to dump their chamber pots out of the upstairs window.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian-stock-markets-slump-apf-14372785.html

I don't think I'll stand under the stock market today. Certainly not the overseas market.

Asian stock markets slump as financial fears send banks lower; Hong Kong index off 3 pct

Every major market retreated, with the previous day's news that Japan's recession deepened amid the global economic downturn still weighing on investors. Crude oil prices fell below $37 a barrel, though the dollar strengthened against the yen.

Banks and insurers were in the spotlight amid concerns there was more pain ahead for the global financial industry.

In Britain overnight, fears mounted that Lloyds Banking Group might be nationalized after the firm Friday reported larger-than-expected losses at recently acquired Halifax-Bank of Scotland. Meanwhile, the cost of protecting against defaults on bank debt in Japan and elsewhere rose, analysts said.

"The news flow just hasn't stopped being negative about financials," said John Mar, co-head of sales trading at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Hong Kong. "It doesn't seem like we've hit bottom yet."

[NM_Shooter]

How does something like this stop?  What is the power on reset for the economic conditions of the world?

Unfortunately, it seems to me that we almost have to have a complete global collapse, resulting in the ousting of all the politicians that pander to the socialist left across the world.  We (the U.S.) were thriving less than a century ago.  Seems like it was not anyone in Washington that helped this; it was caused by entrepreneurs building a capitalistic engine. 

Right now we have a significant amount of do-nothings who have voted themselves funds from the treasury.  This can't last for long.  When all the phony money dries up the crash is going to be hard. 

Get your houses paid for. 

-f-

[Windpower]

I have been watching the DJ and Nikkei

they are right in sync usually (lately)


How does it stop ?

Well for one thing exchanging one credit bubble (sub-prime)  with a bigger one (stimulus package) won't stop it

The best the 'stimulus' can hope for is to put off the crash

but of course it will be much worse when it does go 'gardyloo'

One news letter I subscribe to says that after all this unpleasntness shakes out the US will look very much like Europe did in 1912 - --

this is to start in 2009 (probably in the summer) with hyperinflation ala Weinmar Republic in the 1920's

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-September-2008-Phase-of-collapse-of-US-real-economy_a1298.html

after that they are predicting the outcome in the US to resemble 1912 Europe

time to order seeds and get that garden going

maybe get a few horses too ....

but I rell don't get along with horses especially after that moose hunt in AK --see 22 thread



BTW this news letter predicted the economic events of last fall to the month --- they predicted it in Feb 2006 too

kinda makes me want to listen to them now

but I REALLY hope they are wrong

[muldoon]

the g7 met over the weekend and no new solutions were brought forth.  The Japanese economic minister resigned today, after reportedly getting drunk during the g7 meeting. 

A simplified description as I see it:
The problem 2 years ago, roughly 1 billion dollars in mortgage payments were not made as subprime went pop. 
Solution - paper over it, full steam ahead give more money to Fanny/Freddy. 

The problem 1 year ago, about 30% of the banks were insolvent.  They were also the largest banks and were terribly negative because they had used insane leverage and fraud to build their business.  Those 1 billion in real losses equated to 2 trillion in devalued assets. 
Solution - governments assume the negative loss.

The problem now, 90% of every nation on the planet is insolvent and functionally bankrupt.  The countries that do have a central bank, Japan, US, England, etc have the option to "print" money.  The rest do not and are on the verge of currency collapse.  ala Iceland. 

If that happens, it's dominoes.  First Hungary, Poland, Ireland, Sweden, ... then the bigger dominoes fall.  Russia, China.  (Perhaps Russia before china).

from 1 billion in missed payments to 100trillion+ lost globally because of fraud and lies.  Fraud and lies is the problem.  You cannot have confidence and fraud in a functioning market at the same time.  Our current plan has failed, it is not debatable. 

If I had to guess were seeing a big vote of no confidence that continuing the plan is going to work anymore and that our treasury, turbo tax timmy geithner has nothing else on the table. 

--
NM, whats the reset?  There have been economic collapses in the past.  The 30s era depression was not resolved by the "new deal" it was drug out a decade long because of it.  It was not solved until WW2. 

The collapse in 1853 was solved by a civil war in the US where 618,000 americans died without understanding the real causes of the war or what they were fighting for. 

1760s european collapse led to very high taxation and some kind of tea party thing over here. 

...
I think simply telling the truth and putting a few thousand people in jail would honestly do much good toward rebuilding.  But since the people who need to go to jail for the fraud are the ones making decisions, I'm guessing (based on historical context) war will be the reset. 

[ScottA]

McCain had a song for it. Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran. WW3 anyone?

[Windpower]

4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation
Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders' incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation... (page 2)

According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes
happening in two parallel sequences:
A. Two major processes:
1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system's big players and blocks
B. Two parallel sequences:
1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.
We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world's leaders the opportunity to draw the
proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it
is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard1. In the United States, as in Europe, China and
Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary
breakdown, merely requiring loads of fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of
toxic assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries,...) to reboot it. In fact (and this is what LEAP/E2020
means ever since February 2006 using the expression « global systemic crisis"), the global system is
simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be
saved.
1


http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-September-2008-Phase-of-collapse-of-US-real-economy_a1298.html



Torches and pitch forks, mes ami

[r8ingbull]

NM, whats the reset?  There have been economic collapses in the past.  The 30s era depression was not resolved by the "new deal" it was drug out a decade long because of it.  It was not solved until WW2.

The collapse in 1853 was solved by a civil war in the US where 618,000 americans died without understanding the real causes of the war or what they were fighting for.

1760s european collapse led to very high taxation and some kind of tea party thing over here.

...
I think simply telling the truth and putting a few thousand people in jail would honestly do much good toward rebuilding.  But since the people who need to go to jail for the fraud are the ones making decisions, I'm guessing (based on historical context) war will be the reset.

The 1760's is also the time of what has been called the 'first world war'.  The seven years war is known in the US as the French and Indian war.  A terribly destructive war in Europe that directly led to the latter French Rebellion and Napoleonic wars.  

I also feel this mess is going to get sorted out by warfare or possibly another American 'Tea Party'.  Part of me hopes it's the latter, as us in the USA have never really been on the receiving end of modern total war.

We could also be looking at an 1837 depression again, as I don't think that was ended by a war...

[muldoon]

The 1830s was a rather messy time period.  There certainly was active war with mexico over texas, new mexico and california.  Also war in Florida against the seminoles was ongoing. 

Aside from that, the time period in the 1830s this nation was led by Andrew Jackson who did advocate the removal of the central banks powers.  He vetod the bill to re-charter Americas first central bank in 1832.  He very openly called them out on fraud and greed.   In 1835 he even paid the federal debt off, the only us president to have accomplished this.   Like I said above, stripping of their power, putting a few thousand in handcuffs (or big oak trees) would go a long way to resolving this.

Encouraging fraud and continuing the charade is not working, nor can it work.

[peternap]

Let's see if the trend continues. We should get a dead cat bounce today or tomorrow. Everyone will start talking about a bottom until next week when it will start all over again.

[peternap]

http://news.oldva.org/blogroll/better-print-some-more-money/

The President, Vice President, Hillary Clinton, staff and a representative of the little man, watch the stock market after his speech yesterday.

His comment:
"Hey gang, better start the printing press again. they didn't fall for it."