My take on the market as of TODAY

peternap · July 02, 2008, 07:14:12 PM

muldoon · July 02, 2008, 07:39:39 PM

oh yeah.

everything is on TILT right now. I think tomorrows gonna be turning point day, we either shoot up or drop big time. Today we got real close to the 11200 number I said last month was the next big support/resistance point, today we went -166 to 11215. If we pierce this were into trouble next week. It's got to find a floor soon to build from.

dollar at 1.59 to the euro, this is record territory. everyone is waiting for Trichet and the ECB meeting in the morning. If they raise rates, the dollar will take another hit. I don't know how much it is priced in already but I think some of this weeks dollar moves are in anticipation of this.

big talk from GM about bankruptcy likely. ouch, that's gonna hurt.

LA reported foreclosures have quadrupled year over year from 1 year ago.

Tomorrow is going to paint the picture, and with the long weekend I think many will want to exit the markets because alot can happen and they dont want to be holding for 4 days. This will take it's toll as well. I hope I eat my words and get to come back tomorrow and admit I was being foolish.

gold/silver/oil all up nicely. Seems things of value staying more or less equal to themselves. Think about it, in 1962 you could get a gallon of gas for 30 cents, or 3 silver dimes. Today's 3 silver dimes (11 dimes being an ounce, an ounce being 17 dollars) roughly 4 and some change, or about a gallon of gas.

With that in mind, I'll leave a single graph I found interesting.

Barrels of oil per dollar in blue, Euro in red and ounce of gold in purple.
Photo: AGI

July 02, 2008, 09:01:14 PM

Tomorrow is going to paint the picture, and with the long weekend I think many will want to exit the markets because alot can happen and they dont want to be holding for 4 days. This will take it's toll as well. I hope I eat my words and get to come back tomorrow and admit I was being foolish.

That's my biggest concern about tomorrow. I've never seen a nervous market jump up the day before a long weekend. There's no predicting though. it will do what it does.

I have a bad long term feeling. Just a gut hunch that our economy is really starting to rip a seam.

sparks · July 02, 2008, 11:55:00 PM

General Motors going bankrupt. OH CRAP!! Where is Lee Iaccoca?

desdawg · July 03, 2008, 06:58:09 AM

I will check it later today and see where it went. I think the key is to remove the emotion and run with basic fundamentals for the longer haul.

July 03, 2008, 07:34:38 AM

someone will step in and save General Motors if it does go bankrupt..

They would not allow Chrysler to go under...too important to the US economy....They will not let GM go under either.

peternap · July 03, 2008, 07:36:27 AM

Jobs report just came out. It's not horrible but it is weak. The unemployment situation is getting steadily worse though. Now, how's that going to push the market?

glenn kangiser · July 03, 2008, 08:38:26 AM

Quote from: benevolance on July 03, 2008, 07:34:38 AM
someone will step in and save General Motors if it does go bankrupt..

They would not allow Chrysler to go under...too important to the US economy....They will not let GM go under either.

Is there still a savior?

peternap · July 03, 2008, 11:28:02 AM

What happened muldoon?

The DOW didn't tank but I watched some stocks that dropped below their liquidation value for no reason whatsoever except tomorrow is the 4th.

July 04, 2008, 01:28:46 AM

The entire market operates on a fear base. If you are good at reading fear and what it means to those it scares you will be good at the stock market. Fear is expensive. I suppose it can be profitable for those who can read it right. I try not to be fear based personally but it is nearly impossible when you live in a socieety of fear based people. Ever go through a day and analyse your decisions to see how many are fear based? I drove all of the way through Phoenix early this morning without turning on the AC because it would cut my mileage and I didn't want to use more gas than necessary on my 250 mile trip. That was a fear based decision. That fear was based on experience. How many fears are based on rumor and innuendo and aren't even reasonable. The insurance companies have been capitalizing on that that bit of psychology every since they have been in existence. The market place is loaded with those type of fears and they cause unbelievable fluctuations. I sit and watch and scratch my head. I will probably never be any better at that than I am at buying insurance.

glenn kangiser · July 04, 2008, 10:16:19 AM

I run around scratching the other end, hmm

with my air conditioner on full blast, desdawg.

I already know that they are shafting the h-e-double hockeystix out of us and am just going to run around being cool as a cucumber until they have all of my money.

Sassy · July 04, 2008, 10:17:00 AM

Peter, that's a nice, cuddly black bear - I have a stuffed animal bear just like that...

The entire market operates on a fear base. If you are good at reading fear and what it means to those it scares you will be good at the stock market. Fear is expensive. I suppose it can be profitable for those who can read it right. I try not to be fear based personally but it is nearly impossible when you live in a socieety of fear based people. Ever go through a day and analyse your decisions to see how many are fear based? I drove all of the way through Phoenix early this morning without turning on the AC because it would cut my mileage and I didn't want to use more gas than necessary on my 250 mile trip. That was a fear based decision. That fear was based on experience. How many fears are based on rumor and innuendo and aren't even reasonable. The insurance companies have been capitalizing on that that bit of psychology every since they have been in existence. The market place is loaded with those type of fears and they cause unbelievable fluctuations. I sit and watch and scratch my head. I will probably never be any better at that than I am at buying insurance.

Watch this documentary "The Century of Self" http://www.freedocumentaries.org/film.php?id=140 The story of Bernaise & the psychological manipulation for markets - it's a 4 part series. Interesting how "marketing" began... the advertisements, news media etc...

muldoon · July 04, 2008, 11:22:14 AM

Quote from: peternap on July 03, 2008, 11:28:02 AM
What happened muldoon?

The DOW didn't tank but I watched some stocks that dropped below their liquidation value for no reason whatsoever except tomorrow is the 4th.

well, it was definitely in oversold territory at the open. The ECB European central bank did raise 1/4 but it was expected. All week the dollar has been falling because they telegraphed that move. What was important was that they signaled not to expect any more cuts. This took some pressure off the dollar and we actually went back up. Perhaps the market was pricing in 1/2 raise and backed off? In any event, the dollar gaining strength lowered oil, metals, and the market got some breathing room.

Nothing ever goes down or up in a straight line. I also think just the psychology of making it past another month helped us, June 30 came and went, debt contracts rolled over for the most part and no one blew up. Nothing is really fixed per say, but I don't see blood in the streets right now either.

glenn kangiser · July 04, 2008, 03:03:16 PM

Article saying the Fortis thing is a hoax.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Fortis-Prediction-of-US-Ba-by-Paul-Haughey-080629-98.html