Investments for 2008

[peternap]

The solar stock I mentioned in John's post on the General forum, made the upward jump I expected. It was a little late but I'm not psychic, just childish. That will keep going up so I'll leave it unless I see a problem.

I just saw a Nazi on CNBC who siad security items like eye scanners will be the hot lick in our cashless society. I don't live in a cashless society so he can Kiss my,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Timber is still down as is land and I suspect it will go down further......But......it will go up in a few years so I want to add more timberland this year. Virginia has some tremendous tax breaks for timber sales and even after logging it, you have the land.

What's everyone else doing this year.

[glenn kangiser]

Gold should be good as the dollar is being made into toilet paper.

Some think it will go way up - depends on what the price control boys do to it I think.

[williet]

Well, as of right now, DE, CSCO, MON and YUM are not looking very good...DRYS is up and down as usual. If I had enough money, I'd put a bunch of it in BIDU.....or maybe GOOG.LOL...but then if I had enough to buy a bunch of BIDU, I'd put it in land and forget the stock market!!!!

I lost a ton this past year playing with JSDA.... but it would be one to watch this year. If they have a good quarter, it could go up several dollars in one pop.

[peternap]

They look like good stocks...BIDU's pretty jumpy right now. It was up over a dollar and then lost half of it in the 20 seconds I was watching. They're a little pricey for me though. ASTI is a dream come true. I've already made enough off of it to but 300 wooded acres and still have my original investment as change.

It's started it's normal pullback now and will sit for a couple weeks before the next leg up. For 07 it was up around 720 percent.

Now if people will start turning loose of timber land cheap....I'll be happy!

[williet]

Thanks, I'll look at ASTI.

The thing with BIDU is it will swing 10 or 15 bucks a day....and it's VERY expensive. I really don't know where to put the money this year. I believe there's not that much of a problem with the economy, well not enough to justify the drop we're seeing in the market. I think it's all about hype and the hype is designed to cause a crisis of confidence.

IF the talking heads on the market would be up-beat...I believe we'd still be doing OK. The fact is the government...THIS administration has it in it's head that if our money is worthless and our economy is in tatters....the rich get richer and places like Saudi Arabia and Dubai can buy even more of our country. I'm not sure why anyone who's American would desire another country's money to be worth more than ours or another country to own our land and economy....but that is what seems to be going on.

[peternap]

Amen!

If you look at ASTI, look at all the research on the company. Most of it's management came from FSLR or one of the more progressive companies.

Right now the z warrants (ASTIZ)are a little better buy IMHO. There's no premium but that may change soon.

They're moving up on news and then pulling back 20% or so of the gain. That's the sweet spot to look for to buy. Next news isn't expected for a few more weeks. That's when they have their newly equipment certified...or it will move on NHI announcing the purchase of another 10%.....or someone says the sky is blue...or Grey, you get the idea

[williet]

Thanks,
I'll watch it and maybe jump in in a couple of weeks....

[Erin]

I created a sim. stock account last Xmas and had a bunch of Google and Apple (i'm a Mac nut and my kid bro. works for Google).  I should have invested real money back then.   

Cabela's is way down this winter.  I've already put a little into them when they were down to $15, but I'm thinking I'm going to put in more as soon as I figure out where they're going to bottom out.   

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAB&t=6m

[peternap]

I should have invested real money back then.

If I had a nickel for every time I said that, I wouldn't need to invest

[benevolance]

I do not believe in the staock market...Because it is not something that you can hold onto really... With land, a house a classic car it may not shoot through the roof with profits but it has a guaranteed minimum value.... I guess that is why gold is through the roof... Glenn says gold is going to go up... but it is already artifically inflated in value due to the american economy and dollar being in the toilet.

It makes me laugh in a sick and twisted way...They said that we had to get away from the gold economy and they forced that worthless paper on us...and took our gold away from us...And now we see as the paper is not even good for wiping our arses anymore that once again gold is establishing itself... Of course now they own almost all the gold so when we buy small amounts and drive the price up they just get richer still....

No matter what we do they get richer and we get "F'ed"

[benevolance]

I would say considering this is a home builders forum... that a good investment is in a small pick up and some tools...If you were handy to advertise to shingle a few extra roofs or maybe build a deck here or there...

A lot of contractors charge upto $100 an hour for small jobs like this... Recruit a helper and plan the work out and you usually can get it organized so that the old shingles or deck can be disposed of and the new one can be applied in a single week-end

I would say this would be a great way to get ahead...

If I was going to invest in anything it would be Flax and Hemp.... They are going to legalize the growing of Hemp...And it will revolutionize the farming industry in America...By far the most profitable crop out there short of Marijuana...

Pulp and paper companies can make 3 times the profit without raping forests or using nasty chemicals to bleach and separate the pulp...

Hemp provides the densest concentation of usable carbon per acre of any crop.. almost twice as much as mature forest...

I know there are soy bean futures you can invest in....I would look into Hemp investments... Hemp Rope and Paper are of better quality than their counterparts... Enviro friendly also...

ThANK GOD Canada let up and has allowed farmers to grow hemp for a while now and it is very successful. You can even eat it.. use part of the stalk as a heating fuel...Make BioDiesel or ethanol from it...Not to mention make clothing (superior to cotton in every regard)..And carbon fiber panels for cars planes...Beams trusses...

Necessity will force Hemp on us.... I see why the big pulp and paper companies and the chemical companies wanted to avoid Hemp to make paper for a long time...The new way cuts out the big chemical companies and they are like mr oil very powerful... But there is less than 4% of ancient forest left in America... Also per ton no other product consumes more energy to make in the world compared to paper...Also it is very toxic and the discharge is horrible for the eco system as the run off goes into our rivers lakes and oceans... Using Hemp for anything means no pollution...Hemp is resistant to pests and bugs so no toxic herbicides or pesticides are needed to grow it...

Invest in Hemp my friends

[Erin]

Because it is not something that you can hold onto really...

Yes it is. You own a share of a company. 
Thirty years ago, my great uncles (being good, support-the-local-economy, Nebraskans) bought pieces of a little company called Berkshire-Hathaway.     My grandfather, on the other hand, always thought the stock market was a risky endeavor and missed numerous chances to build his money, including the one that made his brothers quite wealthy, so far as Nebraska farmers go. 

Owning stock in a company is the same as owning your own business. All of the same rules apply.  You need a manageable debt/profit balance.  You need good management.  You need a good business plan.  etc, etc. 

[benevolance]

No Erin

Every so often the markets crash...And people that have stocks take a hit...Oh there are those that have all kinds of money and can afford to wait for the market to rebound...But take what happened at the turn of the millenium...All the tech stocks died and the market crashed...And all the mutual funds pension plans all went into the toilet.

Yes property fluctuates but it outgains the market.

I think that people mistake the single most powerful tool when it comes to their retirement... Saving money... it is not about getting lucky with the stock market or a piece of land... the single most important principle of amassing wealth has almost always been the ability to save money...

And when you make a investment be it on a car for resale a house or even some stocks...you never, ever spend the principle you always save it again along with a considerable chunk of the profits from the last investment..

Disciplined savings are the most important thing here.... without the savings there is nothing

[MountainDon]

Stock markets go up and they go down. I can recall at least three times the market in general made large dips over the decades I've had money in it. And many more smaller blips. However, in the long run the money invested has earned far more than it would have if otherwise invested. You only stand to lose money if you're in it for the short term. Or if you're unlucky and leave the cash in there too long before you retire and the markets dips just before you realign your investments. But even then, if you were a long haul investor you should be okay, just not as okay as you might have been.

There are many ways to invest in the stock market. Many take the easier route by investing money in mutual funds. Mutual funds with no loads are the best. You have to look. Mutuals are nice because they're usually not as volatile as a single stock. Unless you are a person who loves the thrill of the chase so to speak, I'd stay away from individual stocks. I'm not that type of person. But you still have to pay attention to what the funds are doing each year as some fund managers have a better track record than others.

The tech stock bubble bursting was nasty. Even my mutual tech fund was a bad deal.

Real estate is only as good as the local economy in my book. Stock funds are national, maybe global.

Our very conservative retirement portfolio increased by a little over 7% the past year, a touch better than market average. I'm happy. My son, in his mid 20's with a more aggressive mix of funds saw an increase of 12+%.  Yes, a few months ago we both were worth more than present value, but we still did good on a point to point year. That's all that really matters.

OMMV

[peternap]

+1 for what Don said.

benevolance, if you read what everyone has posted, we are all right. Investments are just that, something we hope will increase in value.
I couldn't agree more with Glenn. Gold may well be the ultimate currency. I sure wouldn't buy it at the current spot price though. Look for scrap gold and old jewelry. Just don't buy Gold futures or other traded paper. Get the real stuff.

Your right...save your money but don't put all your eggs in that basket.

The stock market is only one investment and a dangerous one at that. I can't tell you how many times I've had to remind myself that I did the research and was convinced my position was sound even though it was tanking. I just turn the computer off and do something else. Short term stocks are a hole to put your money down.

Desdog just made a super investment in used materials. It's worth more than he paid many times over.

Unless your going to be a hermit, you have to play with money in some form. Nails cost money, lumber costs money, kids need college and weddings and wives need a night out once in a while and you always need a new gun.

Land and timber at the right price is always good.

Just be intelligent with your investments and get what's right for you...Never base your investments on anothers advice without doing YOUR OWN research..and never, ever...eat the yellow snow

[Erin]

Every so often the markets crash...And people that have stocks take a hit...Oh there are those that have all kinds of money and can afford to wait for the market to rebound...

And all of this can be said for owning your own business.  Stocks in a company don't just mysteriously "tank".   When the entire economy is down, so is the value of stocks in general (though there are still those which are increasing despite the market).  But then, the same is true of a personally owned business.  The general economy usually plays a part in how well your private business is doing, too.  Otherwise stocks tank for the same reason any other business does. 

If you're needing your money relatively soon, the market is a risky endeavor.  In the short term it goes up, it goes down.
If you're hoping to grow it over the long term (ie, for retirement) it's really not.  Long term, the market has done nothing but go up.  Anything that I invest is going to basically sit there for the next 30 years, so long as the companies I'm invested in continue in the vein they're in. 

An investment in the market is disciplined savings.  It just has a better long-term rate of return.

BTW, I also agree with Don wrt mutual funds.  Most of our retirement savings is wrapped up in those. They track whatever aspect of the market you're after and come already diversified (ie, not all the eggs in one basket).  We actually invest very little in individual stocks.

[benevolance]

People need to see the evils of the stock market....there was a 20 year period where there was some growth...and all of america started to rely on the market for their pension funds retirements etc...and then it crashed....We forget that the wealthy had already made their fortune and were pulling their money out long before the crash...

If you are skeptical to this look at Martha Stewart...She got inside information that the market was going to crash and when...So she pulled her stocks and it got noticed and she was made an example of....She did nothing any different than hundreds of the ultra wealthy....

So when the market crashed it was the small time investor the mom and pop middle class americans who took the brunt of the hit.

And now Bush and cronies want to boost the market and the economy with the money from your social security because america has not restored their blind faith in the stock market since the tech stock and Bre X stock catastrophies.

Land is a much better investment...Because over time land will grow timber...you can cut it and replant and the value of the land will increase as the timber matures... The housing market has cooled off...But look at the average price increase for land in the last 20-30 years if you are looking for a goldmine investment opportunity land has been it. And it will be it once again...This housing lull and impending recession are great if you want to buy some land on the cheap...Great time to buy

[Erin]

.and then it crashed.

And rose to pre"crash" levels within a few years.    Which goes back to the basic principle of not putting money you're going to need in the relatively near future into the market... 


And real estate is only as good as the local economy in my book, too. 
Land prices in my part of the world have risen little more than inflation. ie, not much of an investment. 

[MountainDon]

That's a nice little graph covering a lot of years. Pick any 30 year period. The index goes up. That graph's from [urlhttp://www.analyzeindices.com/dow-jones-history.shtml]here[/url].

There's another series of more detailed graphs [urlhttp://www.creatingwealth.co.nz/history_dow_jones_index.htm]here[/url].

Yes, there are declines, some more sharp than others. The important thing to remember with the stock market is to get into it at an early age and stick with it. The tortoise will win every time.

You don't invest money in the market if you might need it within a few years. That's what CD's are for. And you don't put money into CD's unless you won't need it for six months to a year. That's what bank or credit union savings accounts are for.

But I have a feeling that my words are going to fall on closed ears.   

[benevolance]

Don we had 20 very good years before the tech stock crash.... it was planned... after all the money was milked out of the average american ...and the wealthy elite that owned the companies had rode america's coat tails for maximum profit they pulled the plug..

They get us to believe in a system of investment which they greatly influence and control and then when we buy into it they make money like most of us cannot even fathom...

we make dribs and drabs on it they make untold fortunes....And every year there are record profits the markets is up and all of that and the stocks soar...and when profit is maxed out and recession is about to hit they are already out of the stock leaving the average schmoe to take the hit....So after the collapse they can use their untold fortunes to buy more stocks at the reduced price and start the process over again..

inherantly evil..

[MountainDon]

Sorry you feel so negative about the market, Peter. I have trouble reconciling your negatives against the positives I see in my portfolio, my wife's parents portfolio and that of my dear deceased parents. 

[Erin]

I find myself hoping to make the "dribs and drabs" my great uncles have made in that "inherently evil" market

[benevolance]

oh you can make money at it....Getting in after a huge collapse and enjoy the ride as it recovers...Or get on board for something like the tech stock boom...

But it is a really tricky kettle of fish...And many americans lose out... I guess one of the largest problems with the stock market is that America many times resorts to putting money in the market when they have no business doing so...The first rule of the market is to only invest what you can afford to lose... With the economy being so bad and the disappearance of the middle class many in the market with stocks cannot afford to lose their investments and are rolling the dice and hoping for the best.

this system has replaced one where everyone in America that had a job could afford to live and save money...And then branch out with those savings to things like home ownership owning a business or stocks....We now are told to invest in the market whether or not we own our houses free and clear...We are told that it is a good thing to take the social security money to boost the market....all of this violates the most sacred rule of the market...Only invest what you can afford to lose!

And don the market might rebound and gain in 30 years... but not many people can afford to throw their future into something and wait 30 years for it to mature.

What is going to happen to the market when the american dollar collapses and is devalued like the peso? I would rather something like an extra piece of land or an extra house to rent for the future. What really amazes me is when people do not have their cars or houses paid for and they are investing in the market...The thinking is that they have a great rate on the mortgage and that the money they set aside for the stock market will outperform in stocks instead of being used to pay off their houses.  To me debt is evil under any circumstances...And you take unnecessary risks

When I bought my house my bank guy tried to talk me into borrowing against my houses equity to invest...I laughed at the guy..He has a whole speech prepared with graphs and the like to show why it made sense to mortgage my house to invest in stocks...

And I am not dumb I can add there is a way that it can work...But that type of investment strategy leaves little room for economic downturn...If there is a hiccup on the stock market or a bad recession then you are in trouble with that sort of scenario. The more we read about the economy in America we see it is in trouble. The trade deficit is horrendous! The debt level is out of control and it has gotten so bad it is weakening the american dollar which kills the buying power for imported goods...All of this is a chain reaction type of thing that when it gets going will spiral out of control...

I do not plan to owe any money when this happens or to have any money in the markets.... My houses might go up and down in value depending on the market but they will be paid for so it will not matter much to me....And they will always have a certain value for me.

I do not recommend to people to have multiple houses... but I sure do recommend eliminating all debt... pay off the house the car and then if you have extra money and want to put some into the markets fine... good luck... but do not count on the market to assist your retirement if you have any debts....

just calling it like I see it

[Erin]

Debt is evil under any circumstances but you borrowed against your home to buy more rentals... Isn't that taking on debt?     (BTW, we don't owe a dime on any of our vehicles, or our home)

And don the market might rebound and gain in 30 years...

Did you look at Don's graph.  The worst crash in history (one that affected the entire world, not just the US) took 25 years to recover.  Nothing since then, during our lifetimes, has been more than a couple. 

[williet]

I'm in the market because I see no better way to increase the value of my retirement (with what I have to invest)....BUT...IF I were to invest it in land around here, that'd be a better investment. IF I had made the same dollar investments in land here that I made in the market at the same time...20 years ago....there's no comparison as the the amount of money I'd have now.

BUT...who knew the "rim" land would be so valuable now. For generations, my family has lived here and the land that was on the bluffs was worthless...no power...no water...no sewage.....BUT NOW ...all that is there and the land that was worthless even 10 years ago is the most valuable here. A few hundred dollars 10 years ago and millions now.

Who knew??

As to the market, unless there are very stiff controls put on the hedge funds and their managers, it will crash. There's more money to be made by destroying our economy than by building it up. I've lost money several times by shorts destroying a good company.

No one seems to like to build anything anymore...they'd rather tear down.