Will oil go up or down

[desdawg]

Today the dollar is getting stronger and oil prices are declining.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/08/markets/oil/index.htm

[peternap]

Give it time Des. Oil is going down mostly because investors are changing over for the time being. The dollar isn't going up because of a stronger economy. It;s going up because things are slipping overseas.

I still expect oil to fo back up and settle somewhere in the middle.

[glenn kangiser]

So the way I see it, If we can wipe out the economy of the entire world, then we should be in good shape. 

Wow- these politicians and manipulators are way ahead of me.

[muldoon]

holy crap, once we crossed 74.4 on the DX (yesterdays 200 day moving average) with upward direction we broke out huge.  It has not closed above the 200 day moving average since March 2006, this was a big signal.  Today were up 1.33 to nearly 76 again, huge rally in the dollar.  good morning trichet, you still gonna raise?    I think it's becoming clear that the US is the proverbial eater on the deserted island.  If we go south, everyone else goes down just as hard.  We are also positioned well with the cuts last year while everyone else raised to fight inflation.  Now that Euro and Asia are sitting at high rates and were low we can hold while they must cut to stir their own economy.  Those cuts will slow their own economies, but leaving them high strangles any growth over there.  That combination continues to raise USD as those FRNs get repatriated back here.  Those looking for the US$ to crash should take a good look at the charts. The dollar already has crashed. More could be in store of course, but much of the recent strength in the Euro can be attributed to Bernanke's willingness to cut and Trichet's willingness to hike.  Thats not the case going forward. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=&sid=a71O39Xm_tjw

I still don't really like equities but I damn sure wouldn't be sitting in commodities now. 

.. peter, this is a strong trend break.  Consider the possibilities here. 

[peternap]

holy crap, once we crossed 74.4 on the DX (yesterdays 200 day moving average) with upward direction we broke out huge.  It has not closed above the 200 day moving average since March 2006, this was a big signal.  Today were up 1.33 to nearly 76 again, huge rally in the dollar.  good morning trichet, you still gonna raise?    I think it's becoming clear that the US is the proverbial eater on the deserted island.  If we go south, everyone else goes down just as hard.  We are also positioned well with the cuts last year while everyone else raised to fight inflation.  Now that Euro and Asia are sitting at high rates and were low we can hold while they must cut to stir their own economy.  Those cuts will slow their own economies, but leaving them high strangles any growth over there.  That combination continues to raise USD as those FRNs get repatriated back here.  Those looking for the US$ to crash should take a good look at the charts. The dollar already has crashed. More could be in store of course, but much of the recent strength in the Euro can be attributed to Bernanke's willingness to cut and Trichet's willingness to hike.  Thats not the case going forward. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=&sid=a71O39Xm_tjw

I still don't really like equities but I damn sure wouldn't be sitting in commodities now. 

.. peter, this is a strong trend break.  Consider the possibilities here. 

I know muldoon....boy do I know. There has been a TREMENDOUS amount of data thrown at me this week. (Now you know why I took a nap yesterday morning )
I have formed some definite opinions that change hourly....so I am proceeding with reckless caution

The one thing I am sure of though is that big things are brewing!

[desdawg]

I once again dumped the oil stocks I had been buying back. The message is painfully clear that I can't anticipate and get out in front of something. I just need to wait until the 11th hour and scramble like everyone else or stay out. Staying out is seeming safer at the moment. Maybe I should just invest with Martha Stewart. Her stock is going up. The american dollar will now buy more curtains and doilies.

[glenn kangiser]

I heard Martha Stewart was supposed to go broke.  I was crying for her.   Who mis-informed me?

[peternap]

Des, this market is VERY hard to play and has been for a while now. Anyone that ever said they could predict stocks with certainty, was joking or fibbing. That's especially true now.

Wild swings are just that. Wild swings and don't reflect fundamentals. We can guess at some stocks with some accuracy....but again, it's an educated guess.

I have a couple that are stuck in a rut. Every morning they take a dead cat bounce and then go down during the lunch dump, and keep going till close. I've been daytrading them and making a few hundred a day on them. One morning, they'll fool me.

Study fundamentals and if we ever get a real market back, you'll be ready to invest. Remember, there's a lot of difference between an investor and a trader. Trading is risky and done long enough, you'll get burned.

[desdawg]

Martha Stewart is supposed to have her goods in Wal-Mart soon. There was an attempt at a website for wedding registry that isn't working out. It was called the knot instead of the noose. It might have worked better if had been called what it was.
Peter I am not educated enough to make good educated guesses apparently. I need to develop a mood swing personality so I can run with the herd. I need to ricochet with press releases. You are probably on the right track thinking in real short periods of time, measured in hours. I never tried to work that way. It is just not my nature. 

[gandalfthegrey]

My DW saw them in Wally World the other day. Thought they were only in KMart.

[peternap]

Remember Des, daytrading is dangerous and I never met a fulltime daytrader that made any money.

You can watch trends though. I have a long list of stocks I've researched and watch. Since I'm going to tell you to stay away from it for now, I can tell you that it's one I've been daytrading because of the trend. Every morning, it goes up and I sell what I have (usually 2000 shares). This morning I sold when it was up 0.07.

Every evening before close, I buy back. Now, Monday is earnings for ASTI so don't try it with them now. Since they are still in the early stages of production, earnings themselves are a non-event, however, management is very tight mouthed about what's happening and the key to the PPS will be if the give any good news.

The stock could skyrocket (for a short time), drop although I doubt much lower than it is, or stay the same. A lot of investors will dump long held shares if there is no news.

Freddie Mac is tempting but I think it has more downward room to go.

What I'm saying is just watch what's going on and then try to figure out why. Look at the data muldoon puts on here. It's just research, granted, good research, but still nothing you can't pick up on with a little practice.

[desdawg]

There is a website GasBuddy.com where you can go and find the best prices in your neighborhood for gas. I use it to compare all the time. The prices are posted by site users not the stations themselves. For instance I know by looking that if I drive to the place up north I can save at least 2 cents a gallon by filling up at the Safeway store in Chino Valley, AZ rather than filling here before I leave. I usually top off my tank there anyway so if I am going to take some 5 gallon cans along I will fill them there rather than here. Why it cost less when the fuel has to be transported out of Phoenix I imagine than it cost here closer in I can't imagine. Greed. The safeway store here locally is usually 4 cents a gallon more than it is there. My one ton holds a fair amount of fuel + the cans so it saves a few bucks to that have that information. And I hate supporting greed any more than is necessary. I just wondered if anyone else had found and used the site. It appears to cover every state and province. So you can find the national average price and compare between states if you want. If I fill along I-40 it usually costs 50-60 cents a gallon more as those stations busily rip the tourists and travelers. And yet here locally the best prices are usually found right along I-10. Go figure.

[benevolance]

I find the best prices are when 2 interstates intersect... When I make trips back home to take cars...I find the best gas price is where interstate 81 meets interstate 77 near Wytheville Virginia...best prices for 100 miles in any direction that I have ever seen..... Huge truck stops right there between the two interstates.

[desdawg]

Good point Peter. The are along I-10 where I see the best prices is where it intersects with I-8. All are within a mile or two of that intersection. I never would have made the connection if you hadn't mentioned it.

[benevolance]

you have to be careful on the interstate though... many times within sight of the interstate a gas station will put the price up 10-20 cents a gallon...All the locals in that area drive a mile to the other side of town for the better deal.

I make a note of where I buy gas on my trips to Maine...try to stop where I know the prices are good....and to avoid the stations that gouge

[desdawg]

That  is what is good about the website. You can look at what the different stations are charging before you travel. I think it is a great idea. And you are not supporting the price gougers.

[benevolance]

i agree 100%

we keep a journal of sorts of where we stopped and the mileage marker... and we compare prices and adjust our favorite stopping spots accordingly if we see gouging...I do not always take the cheapest gas... driving one truck loaded with parts and towing another loaded down on a tow bar...Ease on and off the interstate is a big issue for me....I will gladly pay a little more and be thankful to get it if the station is  right beside the interstate at the end of the off ramp and right beside the on ramp to get back on...I will not exit onto an expressway that is 4 lanes with no way to get turned around... take that into a town then have to make 3 or 4 turns in parking lots which is hell with the tow bar if there is not plenty of room.... Just to save 5 dollars on a fill up.

I hunt the best prices more when we are in the car not towing though

[desdawg]

That is what seems so strange to me. The best prices are next to the freeway here. The gougers are at the other end of town. I guess they think they have their neighborhood locked in.

[ScottA]

Gas with 10% ethanol is down to $3.49 here today. For ethanol free gas it's $3.64.

[benevolance]

I filled up my 90 dodge pick up at $3.42... there is a station that usually is a few cents cheaper but it is on the other side of town... so $3.42 it is!

[benevolance]

I have been looking for months now to find a station here that does not blend in Ethanol....I have not found one.

Last week in Maine they are still using MTBE instead of Ethanol in some stations...I thought that stuff was illegal...I was sort of half stunned when I saw it in Portland last week

[Mad Dog]

Seems that the price per barrel has no effect here in Alaska.  $4.41/gallon regular unleaded, down a mere .10 cents a gallon.  Diesel still up and over $5.00/gallon.  BOHICA.

[desdawg]

Gas with 10% ethanol is down to $3.49 here today. For ethanol free gas it's $3.64.

It costs a lot to not blend it in, huh Scott?

[ScottA]

I guess so. This is new. I never saw signs for ethanol free gas before the last few weeks. Lots of beef ranchers around here who hate what ethanol is doing to feed prices. Also people saying that it can hurt your engine.

[apaknad]

hi m.d.,

sorry but what does BOHICA mean? i am sure everyone else knows but...