Building a country home in 2009?

[John Raabe]

I have just posted a short article about the current economic climate and why it might be a good time to get that cabin or country home project going...

http://www.countryplans.com/build2009.html

What are your thoughts about the best moves in these uncertain times? Are you having issues due to the economy (good or bad)?

[MountainDon]

Are you having issues due to the economy (good or bad)?

So far, we have not been impacted too badly. The Albuquerque area real estate market has performed better than many and that's where we have investments.

Also on a personal level, from a materials price point of view, it would have been better to be starting our cabin this coming summer rather than last summer. However, then I'd be a year behind and would not have had the enjoyment of the past year. I believe we did benefit from being able to hire a couple of hungry roofers though, as well as negotiating an excellent deal on the tile and installation labor for the living room floor at home.

At a business level we have noticed more "churn" in our preschool enrollment this school year. We have managed to maintain a 98%+ enrollment average since August '08, however we've had more withdrawals that have required filling with new enrollments than we've experienced in the past. In the past decade our norm was to run 100% full throughout the year.

[tesa]

interesting information

so far, husbands job remains fairly secure, in that the business is still doing ok, he has noticed a reduction in orders, and inquiries,
in general, but steady none the less

i, as the CFO of our little family, keep tight reins on the outgoing funds, and we have all but cut out going out for dinners, and such
but we usually go for pizza once a month, as the kids enjoy it, and i feel getting out once a month is not too bad compared to
some of our friends that go out at least once a week

i've managed to sit on over 1/4 of our tax refund from 2007, even with paying cash for the land, and paying cash for the survey

i'm proud of that

and since we don't own any credit cards, we payed cash for christmas, so i feel good about that too

tesa

[ScottA]

We've seen a large drop of in work since November. While it's normal to be slow this time of year it seems to be worse than recent years. I've had some jobs postponed and cancelled in the past few weeks. My friends are seeing the same thing with their work. We are all in the building trades. My wifes work is still going good and has even picked up recently. She is in the computer video game business and works from home.

We've had some issues finacialy lately due the wild fluctuations in the dollar. Our saving is in euros and canadian dollars mostly so since the dollar rebounded we don't want to convert money to dollars to pay for building our new cabin. As a result things have slowed down. I'll watch it and see how it goes. I still need to finnish it by this time next year so we may have to bite the bullet if work doesn't pick up.

If you can, I'd say now is a good time to build.

[phalynx]

My field, high end computer support, has not felt a drop as of yet.  I am actually more interested in leaving the high pay, long hours job class and move down to a self employed nature of help when I want, work with who I want.

I will say this about the current times.  I think we will not go in to GD2.  Mostly because back in GD1, communication to everyone was slow.  Think about it as trying to recover a car from a skid.  Back then, something bad would happen and by the time the everyday people heard about it, the correction was coming full force and being over corrected because the correction wouldn't happen quickly.

Today, in a double edged sword problem, issues are immediately communicated to all classes of people in all areas.  This causes very quick reactions.  In the same respect, corrections,happening 100X+ faster than the past, allow corrections to be felt much quicker than before.  Although we will go up and down frequently, we won't travel as far up or down as far as in the past.

My humble opinion.

[Bishopknight]

Nice synopsis John,

I think people should have started in 2008 personally, but if someone hasn't yet, what are they waiting for?

[Mike 870]

Around here we have had a GM, Delphi, and International plant all close, however we have been getting defense jobs (my field).  We have not had the severe real estate drops that other places have had, because our market was never that inflated in the first place.  Values have gone down though, simply because there are no buyers.

I find myself still looking for land, and wondering if it is a good place to shelter my savings if we have massive inflation and a collapse of the dollar.  It seems there are more productive farms coming on the market that could be had for not much out of pocket if you factor in the crop lease.

I keep telling myself the time to move on an investment is when everyone else is afraid, but I just can't make myself.

[JRR]

One of the local Home Depots is a gathering area for day laborers ... available for yard work or construction work.  A year, or so, ago you could see perhaps a dozen gathered in the mornings hoping for work ... now there may be hundreds.

[Freeholdfarm]

We haven't been personally affected yet.  I'm hoping to see land prices fall quite a bit so I can buy a few acres to build on, someplace.  In the meantime, my project this year is to build a moveable barn for my dairy goats, chickens, and meat rabbits.  I think I'm going to get an old travel trailer, gut it, and rebuild the interior.  Maybe a small mobile home, if I can find one structurally sound that's small enough to pull with a 3/4 ton pickup.  (How big a mobile home could a pickup that size pull?  The truck has a tow package and 4-w-d.)  Then when I find land, I'll just have to move the barn to it.

Not sure how long it's been since I've posted here -- I couldn't sign in for a long time!  Finally figured out what the problem was and fixed it!

Kathleen

[glenn kangiser]

Great to see you back, Kathleen. 

I think you could pull a pretty decent sized MH with that truck  We pulled a 27 foot horse trailer with ours.

[Sassy]

I still think we may be in for some big surprises with the economy & our current style of gov't... 

Saying that, I agree with what you wrote, John.  I feel much more comfortable having our place in the mountains, being self sufficient...  we're prepared as much as possible unless someone drops a "nukular" bomb on us - then I won't even have to worry, I'll be in eternity which is much longer than this short life...   

[John Raabe]

Good point DW - huge deficits must someday be reckoned with. How much of our load can we expect our grandchildren to carry?

[phalynx]

As someone else had stated, if your problem is everyone borrowing too much money, the answer ISN'T borrowing your way out of it.

[Okie_Bob]

It would sure be nice if everyone would put their city, state or location somehow in their profile. We have asked this be done many times but, guess some don't want to divulge that info? It would just be nice to see where everyone that is posting is living as a reference to where we are living.
I believe this group is probably more self sufficient than most any other group might be. Being debt free is certainly high on everyones list and that is a very good thing. Would love to get totally self sufficient but, guess that is almost impossible today with all the rules and regulations most of us put up with.
Let capitolism alone and most of our problems would solve themselves. Let the government fix it and we are doomed to failure, SOON.
Okie Bob

[MountainDon]

It would sure be nice if everyone would put their city, state or location somehow in their profile. We have asked this be done many times but, guess some don't want to divulge that info?

It's simple to do, but one must look for the place to do it. For those with privacy concerns as simple note like "NE OK", "southern CO", etc would do and not give away much.

Here's a simple tutorial on how to do it.

[CREATIVE1]

We were going to start building in 2008, but the permits came in too late.

Can't sell our house in Florida, but construction materials are cheaper than last year in Washington (at least for framing and other lumber) and the building boom of last year is over, so we might actually be able to hire some local help if needed.  In 2008 you had to take a number.  And the value of our property out there is holding steady.  The community is going upscale, which I only like because of property values.

My accounting business is down because I mostly deal with businesses, and they're going "out of."  First downturn for me in over 20 years of business.  I'm trying to fill in by setting companies up for government contracting and doing more mentoring, consulting, and technical writing. So far, it's helping. 

My husband works in public health and is trying to decide when to retire.  They will be cutting back health services (read jobs) in Florida anyway with our budget shortfall, so this might be a good time to get out.  But with everything so iffy, there is certainly more stress than we would've wanted in making these decisions.

Honestly, we don't know what to do.  But, bottom line, we really want to move from Florida, so we're focusing on that.   

[muldoon]

John,

Thats a great article, and very well balanced.  You bring some good points on why now is a good time to build without resorting to playing on fears. 

Good moves for 2009 in my opinion are to continue efforts made in 2008 around taking a defensive position.
1) reduce or eliminate any debt you can.  focusing on anything with the potential for variable rates or balloon payments.
2) reduce or eliminate unnecessary expenses - this means different things for different people, for some its cable tv, for others its the 5 dollar starbucks every day, whatever works for you, scale back whatever you can deem unnecessary.
3) build stronger relationships with your families and neighbors, no matter how bad it gets these are the people who will help you get through it. 
4) gardens and woodpiles are great, but so are insulated windows, weather sealed doors, efficient water heaters are important too.  you can put your money to work for you by investing in yourself and your house as well - in fact there is a good chance you can get a better return right now by investing in your family than any stock market.
5) be able to sustain yourself for a few weeks of interruption; maybe having some canned goods, blankets, and the like can sure help alot.  When I was laid off in 2001 we had something to fall back on.  Be good to have something to fall back on again if needed.  (this is not saying go buy thousands in freeze dry doomsday food).  Just give yourself some buffer, every family should decide what that buffer should be for themselves.  Hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, floods are all recent memories of bad things happening -- we all should be able to weather these little storms.  It can make a huge difference. 

All of those can be summarized quite simply.  We dont know what the future will hold.  It makes sense to be smart with any money we have now and make some steps to put ourselves in the best possible position we can for the unknown.  You shouldn't necessarily be afraid to spend money, but you should be getting something for it and hopefully always be improving the situation your in. 

Yes, the economy is hugely affecting my work - I have laid off 2 people and the team I used to work for no longer exists.  My project budgets have been slashed and I am required to pick up the slack on more projects that are not properly staffed.  Some projects that were slated for 2009 have been scrapped.  I had to re "interview" for my own job in November.  I guess I passed since I'm still here - they never told me either way though. 

[Terry]

Yes, the economy is hugely affecting our business. Since October we had to lay off
3 drivers and shut down our small trucking business because of the hike in diesel fuel.
Not only did our customers not want us to add a fuel charge, but they would take their sweet time (sometimes 3 months) to pay for those deliveries. However, we had to pay the fuel bills and our employees every month whether we got paid or not. We used a lot of our savings (saving to build a cabin) to get us through those months. So, sadly we decided it was not worth the hassle and closed the trucking business.

My husband's asphalt paving company is still doing ok even with that last rise in oil prices. I guess people still need roads, and parking lots.

I'm in the nursing profession, so no problems there. There will always be jobs for nurses....not enough of us to go around. I really hope to retire in about 3 years; however, we'll see........don't know what the future will hold. 

[John Raabe]

Thank you everyone who has shared their stories. I think the old virtues of hard work and self-determination are likely to see us through this period of "adjustment".

I am proud to say this forum group seems to be quite "old fashioned" in that way.

Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning is one of my favorite "doom & gloom" writers... Here is another engaging piece on the mechanics of the world economy and why we should hire Bernie Madhoff to run it for us...

(Note: this will NOT be a balanced view.)

Put Bernie Madoff on the public payroll!

Today, we're going to give the feds some advice. Many will find our advice repulsive. Others will find it shocking. Still others will think we are joking.

True, the feds haven't asked our advice. And true, people will ice skate in Hell before they take it. But at least we will feel that we have done our duty. Besides, to them that give much is given. Something like that. It's in the Bible.

Follow the trail of our advice to others...and we will get something for ourselves. What we will find is a fuller understanding of the economic big picture...and perhaps a better sense of how to protect ourselves.

We begin, however, with the latest reports from Wall Street.

The Dow fell again yesterday. It's down to 8,474. Oil and gold are still going down too. Yesterday, oil slid to $37 and gold lost $34.

Meanwhile, unemployment in the highest it's been in 16 years – and rising. At 7.2% in December, it is probably already 8% now. USA Today reports that men are losing jobs more than women. This is probably because the damage in autos, finance and construction, industries dominated by men, has been so great.

But you think you've got trouble? What unemployed Americans don't buy unemployed Chinese don't make. A report at Bloomberg tells us that 10 million migrant workers in China lost their jobs in the first 11 months of 2008. By now, the figure is surely much higher.

"Poverty does cause violence," says a professor at Columbia who studied the issue. The Chinese government has warned that it may be faced with "mass incidents" in which it has to use force to keep the mob under control. Next door, Russia has already called out troops to put down a tax revolt in Siberia.

"I'm getting a license to carry a handgun," said an American friend, surprising us over dinner last week. "I don't know...but I see people getting desperate."

Elsewhere in the news is a report that shoplifting in the United States is rising. More than 80% of stores surveyed said it was becoming a bigger problem.

And in Spain, people are so desperate for work they're joining the army. When the market declines, politics – especially armed politics – increases. Like Ireland, Spain profited in a big way from the boom in credit. But now that the boom is over, it is suffering in a big way too. House prices are slumping and jobs are disappearing. Our team in Buenos Aires – which keeps an eye on the Spanish-speaking world – tells us that only 47,000 young men signed up for military service in 2007. In 2008, the total rose to 80,000. According to some experts, by 2010, one out of every five Spaniards in the work force will be out of a job.

The IMF says it may need another $150 billion to fight the worldwide slowdown. Chickenfeed, really. This thing has gotten so big, $150 billion won't even be noticed.

The World Bank says global trade is shrinking – for the first time in 25 years. And here, is where we pick up the trail. With so many clues...so much data – so much noise! – it's easy to get lost. But here we have a lead we can work with. Let us begin here.

World trade is shrinking. Across borders, at least, people are buying and selling less. Why would they do that?

We were afraid you would ask that. Because the answer requires more time than we have this morning. So we will simplify. Economies naturally expand and naturally contract. In an expansion, world trade increases. In a contraction, it diminishes. Typically, the big increases in global trade correspond with the rise of imperial powers – armed forces large enough to protect trade routes...guarantee the safety of merchants...and enforce a uniform, reliable commercial code. Trade expanded greatly during the Roman Empire...then contracted sharply when it fell. The Mongol Empire too created a huge free trade area in Eurasia. Then, the British and other European powers expanded their sphere trade along the shipping lanes...throughout most of the world...until they were rolled back from much of Eurasia by the advance of other hostile empires – the Soviet Union and China.

The last major boom in world trade came with the Reagan Administration. The free-marketers in the '80s – both in England and America – lowered taxes and reduced barriers to commerce. Then, a remarkable thing happened – the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving its member states and client countries free to enter into trade with the West. China also realized that its rice bowl would be fuller if it too began selling to the West, rather than threatening it.

That Golden Age of ebullient world trade is now over. It could, of course, be nothing more than a temporary setback to system of imperial finance that is otherwise in good shape – a mere runny nose and sore throat...nothing to worry about. But the noise we hear sounds more like a death rattle than a head cold.

But the quacks are at work, busily making the situation worse.

Looking at the essentials of the economic situation, we see it in 3D:

A natural Deflation of asset prices in the financial world...

...leading to a natural Depression in the economic world....

...with an army of public officials Determined to turn things around.

Their approach is the old 'hair of the dog that bit him' technique. The world has had too much credit; they propose to give it even more. With $10 trillion in "stimulus" efforts all over the planet, they're not giving only a hair of the dog; they're throwing in the whole damned kennel.

These efforts are not going to work. Why not? Because you can't help an obese man by giving him another helping of dessert. And you can't cure an alcoholic by offering him free drinks.

If the feds were paying attention, they should listen up here:

The cure for a slump is a slump.

A real correction corrects. Cold turkey. Rehab. Debts are paid off, worked off, or written off. Prices fall to the point where they make sense again. Consumer items become affordable; an ordinary person can buy a house. An ordinary investor can buy a stock...or an apartment building...and get a decent return on his money. An ordinary businessman can make a profit from operations; he doesn't have to count on stock options and rising share prices in order to make a living.

The way to cure a correction, we repeat, is to let it do its work. But that's not going to happen. We'll explain why it won't happen tomorrow. Today, let's continue to look at what will happen – more quack cures!

Our colleagues in London tell us that the English are proposing to "tax savings to force people to spend or invest, rather than just sit on their money." That's right, they want to stimulate world trade by forcing consumers to buy more tennis shoes from India. If they don't, they'll have to pay a tax!

Another wonder drug was proposed by two former Bank of England economists. They want the government to buy houses that go into foreclosure and then rent them back to the people who couldn't pay their mortgages.

One thing you can count on, dear reader: you'll hear about plenty more schemes to correct the correction. Many of them will get the backing of the government.

And all of them will cost money – big money.

Once a bubble in one sector has burst, you can't re-inflate it. All you can do is to inflate other bubbles. After the bubble in the tech sector popped in 2000, for example, the feds manned the pumps. But they couldn't get the tech stocks re-inflated. The NASDAQ never recovered. Instead, they pumped up a huge bubble in private debt – with gassy bulges in housing, finance, commodities, emerging markets and many other sectors. Now, that bubble has burst and the feds are, once again, pumping harder than ever. This time, they're blowing up the biggest bubble in PUBLIC debt the world has ever seen.

Even Le Monde has noticed:

"The governments of the entire world are beginning to create mountains of debts in order to finance their bailout plans, their stimulus programs and their budget deficits caused by the recession. Even so, the rate at which the US and European countries borrow on the financial markets is near the lowest in history. It is only barely above 2% for 10-year loans to America and slipped under 3% for the German equivalent at the end of 2008... Some economists ask themselves if a bubble in government debt isn't in the process of forming...and they ask themselves what will happen when it eventually explodes..."

We think we know what happens. The whole system of imperial finance gets flattened.

But at least if they're going to do the wrong thing, you might as well do it well. It is a documented fact that neither the present U.S. Secretary of the Treasury – Hank Paulson – nor the incoming man – Tim Geithner – had a clue about what was happening last year. They didn't seem to understand how America's system of imperial finance – the system that undergirded expanding world trade – actually worked. They seemed completely surprised when it began to crash. Clearly, neither is competent to manage such a system.

So we have a suggestion. Why not turn to a man who does know? In all the world, there is one man who has proven that he knows better than anyone, not only how it works...but how to work.

That man is Bernie Madoff. Instead of putting him in jail, put him at the Treasury.

That is our advice for today. For it, we expect neither compensation nor thanks. But in the spirit of public service, we will explain – tomorrow – why Mr. Madoff is the man for the job.

Until then,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning

[considerations]

So far I'm good, the house is about half done.  I'm self-employed and do research/writing/mentoring for a senator. 

The economic difficulties have made my part of the work much more time-consuming, as it is the government budget I spend most of my time on.  However, those same economic difficulties could create a need to cut personnel i.e.; me.  Ironic that sound budgetary practices on my part could get me to write myself out of a job.

Anyway, to that end, I've added to my task lists; saving cash every month, and examining every monthly expense for ways to lower them. 

I created several 6 month goals.  Stop paying for a portable john, get out of the storage unit, consolidate communications costs, and finish the cabin.  So far, I've checked only one off the list - 5.5 months to go.

Saving money and finishing the house sound like they should cancel each other out, but I found they do not. 

I'm human, imperfect, and don't always follow my own advice, but by at least setting the goals, the rate of progress has been much improved.

[Bishopknight]

Good article John, I enjoyed it.

[fritz]

John and others,

Talk about asking the tough questions!  If I may, let me add my thoughts from my (narrow) point of view.  As a compliment to all before I begin, I know we all come from various backgrounds politically and socially and culturally, yet I continue to be proud of how even our potential hot bed discussions don't break down to the Internet mud slinging that goes on so many other places.

Politics and economy == wow what a potential mine field.

I think to answer the first question, is this a good time to build? -- absolutely -- IF -- you have done your homework.  I don't think the decision to build (or be the general contractor) of a home/shed/garage/dog house should be entered into lightly and without some thinking...or soul searching...  The second part of the question, building a country home add more complications.  To chose live in a rural area whether it's 5 miles, 50 miles or 500 miles from your supplies means you have to think differently.  Not easier, not harder, but differently.

Another consideration is the idea of country living as a "simpler life"...."simple" is not complication free.  By living in a rural area, I traded one set of complications for another set of complications. 

So yes, if you have spent some time on this forum (or read a lot of books, or talk to a lot of people who have done this) and you understand what you are getting into, this is an ideal time to build.  Even if you can't do it all in one burst, being able to build in steps an stages will get you farther than waiting until the "perfect" moment in the economy, weather, and work-life balance to start.

As for the Iowa economy, I work in the capital city, surrounded by banking, financial and agribusiness, so we don't see the huge spins of the economy like manufacturing or tourism dependent cities do.  My cabin is in the poorest county or 2nd poorest in the state.  That said, I'm not seeing my neighbors adversely affected either --- they don't rely on credit, have just what they need, and are still able to put gas in the truck and the Wal Mart shelves are full.

The folks in between are the ones I see having trouble.  On the local Craig's list, I see weekly ads for "free horses" and just last week someone offered all his cattle free, writing he was "out of hay, out of money, and out of time".  I suspect we'll see more of this before we're done.

So if I were starting out in 2009 - I would borrow as little as possible to buy the land and build. 

Buy local - as much as possible.  It will cost more $$ than the Lowes/Home Depot big box stores, but it will pay you back over time in both community trust and helping your neighbors. 

Decide your priorities:  your first year you may concentrate your energy and dollars into building the finished shelter, leaving the landscaping and the sustainable food gardens to a second or third year.  Starting a new garden to support your family takes time and energy the first and second years.  Unless you are blessed with pristine soils, you can't just drop seeds in the ground and enjoy the bounty of the grocery.  Likewise with small animals or poultry for eggs, there is a learning curve and even the most experienced growers have problems

Spend less discretionary money: Last fall I started trying to spend $5 less each week and putting that money away.  (Week 1 $5, Week 2 $10, Week 3 $15)  (Yeah it gets real hard by week 20 or so...but it adds up.)  Now, true, you maybe cut your other spending back, and then drop $5000  on building materials but I hope my logic make sense.

Buy in bulk when you can, (within reason if you're living in a small space) so you have foodstuffs to get you through emergency bills or unexpected breaks in your income or cash flow.

Offer to help others  If you neighbor has a big job, offer to help, show up, and pull your share.  It, too, will pay you back, probably when you least expect it and most need it. 

Don't expect to be perfect  You will make mistakes.  Reading this forum and talking with others will keep you in perspective. The TV build-it-yourself shows don't.  Everyone makes mistakes, some small, some huge.  Real life and real building doesn't go through the tv-edit booth to remove the goofs.  They happen, you learn from them, and go forward.  Some will keep you up at night, some will be expensive, but while others may laugh with you, no one who has done this will laugh at you. 

Finally, building a country home is a little like the old saying about the best time to plant a tree:

The best time to plant a tree was 10 years ago, the second best time is now.

[Bill Houghton]

+ 1

Bill in the U.P.

[Terry]

Ditto, what Fritz said!! 

[John Raabe]

Don't know if this is on topic or not... I also posted this in the humor section - a good place to visit when things get too serious!