The way we are going we won't be around long enough to use up all the oil.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0907-07.htm

QuotePhlanx,

Well the change in the climate is causing more Hurricanes and Tornados...It is melting the ice caps...Causing coral reef to die...All because of us!

We are the greatest threat to the planet....Nothing else is even a distant second.

We can hope that there is viable Solar or  Fission Technology to produce massive amounts of power pollution free in 100 years....But we are dragging our heels...We know oil and coal are the devil...Yet we use them..Our consumption of the dirtiest of fossil fuels is increasing not decreasing...

One of the things we should be worried about when talking to peak oil and the eventual decline of oil flowing out of the ground each year is that globally we are using more and more each year....It is not growing at a rate comparable with the economy or population either.... Oil consumption/Production capability is one area that may truly be malthusian.

It has started to get expensive...This is just the tip of the iceberg once some of the largest oil fields in the world start to decline in Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia...

Remember what happens when there is a war in the middle east or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico...We see oil spike to $80 a barrel and Gasoline goes to $3.50  on average a gallon in America... If one of the top three oil producers in the world starts to see any kind of decline in their oil production we are going to see those kinds of prices at the best of times not the worst...This is in my opinion about 5 years away...And anytime there is a disaster or conflict near a pipeline we will be paying $5.00 a gallon for fuel....Europe will be paying $10-12 a gallon

With much respect, because I wish to have a nice conversation with everyone, you are way off.  I will take them point by point.

"Well the change in the climate is causing more Hurricanes and Tornados...It is melting the ice caps...Causing coral reef to die...All because of us!"

This is extremely false.  The melting of the ice caps causes a cooling of the tropical waters.  Cooler waters causes LESS hurricanes not more.  The coral reefs dying are not due to man.  They have a an enemy in the water that is destroying them and WE don't know how to stop it.  Why?  Because we didn't cause it.  Think about this for a second.  Man cannot stop rain, tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, the sun, the clouds.  None of it.  We can cause an increase of pollution which will cause problems for humans but to say that the world is hurt?  We are a speck of dust on the timeline of the Earth.  We couldn't put a scratch on the surface.  The Earth is self healing as it has for 4.5 BILLION years.


"We are the greatest threat to the planet....Nothing else is even a distant second."

We used to not be here.  There were millions of other species on this planet long before us.  They are not here.....  To make a statement that we are the worst is very shortsighted.  Something killed off everything before us and it wasn't us..  The very fact that we are alive tells you that we cannot be the worst.

"We can hope that there is viable Solar or  Fission Technology to produce massive amounts of power pollution free in 100 years....But we are dragging our heels...We know oil and coal are the devil...Yet we use them..Our consumption of the dirtiest of fossil fuels is increasing not decreasing...

One of the things we should be worried about when talking to peak oil and the eventual decline of oil flowing out of the ground each year is that globally we are using more and more each year....It is not growing at a rate comparable with the economy or population either.... Oil consumption/Production capability is one area that may truly be malthusian."

Almost all correct.  Oil and coal are not the devil, they are a resource.  When they deplete, we will go elsewhere.  Neccessity is the mother of all invention.  Countries are growing and it is helping to deplete.  But, you can't say that we are running out now when there is so much oil that we don't even know about.

"It has started to get expensive...This is just the tip of the iceberg once some of the largest oil fields in the world start to decline in Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia..."

Correction:  Some of the largest "known" oil fields start to decline.  We find oil daily.  Canada, has one of the largest as well.  Wyoming?  yep.  Alaska?  Yep.  Gulf of Mexico?  Yep.  We just pull from the foreign countries because they are cheaper.  When they go up, we go local.  Which is why there is so much drilling today in the US.

"Remember what happens when there is a war in the middle east or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico...We see oil spike to $80 a barrel and Gasoline goes to $3.50  on average a gallon in America... If one of the top three oil producers in the world starts to see any kind of decline in their oil production we are going to see those kinds of prices at the best of times not the worst...This is in my opinion about 5 years away...And anytime there is a disaster or conflict near a pipeline we will be paying $5.00 a gallon for fuel....Europe will be paying $10-12 a gallon"

So the price goes up.  Is this really a problem?  When it is a problem, you will stop buying oil and find another method.

Neccessity is the mother of all invention.  We need to not panic at the little things in life.  WE are a little thing.  

"So the price goes up. Is this really a problem?"

I think this is going to depend on your financial reserves.

Here in Michigan last winter people were having to choose between their $500/mo heat bills and buying food. This can be a problem for those whose income is limited.

According to some projections, oil peaking will affect every aspect of our lives. As it becomes more expensive to produce, the cost is passed to us.

That alone is enough to make me study the link Glen posted in the step by step solar thread. My income in the future will be limited and I want to prepare now.

This is extreme over-simplification.  Let's see, we are going to chose between food and a 500 oil bill to heat our home.  Gosh, maybe we could cancel the cell phone bill, the cable, the internet, the newspaper, the phone service, sell the brand new car, etc... This is just like a typical city gov't.  We just added a new program to pay for school lunches but tax revenues aren't coming in so we are going to have to fire police officers.  This is called a SCARE TACTIC.  Same thing with the reporting of oil prices affecting consumers.

Let's look at a simple example.
typical family has a nice newer truck with a payment of 500.00 per month plus insurance at 90.00 per month.

Annual expense is 7080.00 for just that.

Add in the 15k miles the avg. vehicle drives and let's use 15 mpg (the worst case scenerio)
That's 1000 gallons of gas per year.  At 1.93 per gallon, it's 1930.00 +7080.00 for an annual total of 9010.00 or 750.83 per month.

Now, same scenerio.  the mean old oil companies are selling the oil to the highest bidder and the price goes to 3.12 per gallon!!!!  That's 3120.00 +7080.00 for an annual total of 10200.00 or 850.00 per month.

It's a 13% increase total.    It's not an increase of 1.93 to 3.12..  So these families can't afford a 13% increase?  What about their insurance?  It goes up every year too.  What about the price of electricity, it goes up.  taxes? they go up.  

Bottom line, we put ourselves it debt up to our eyeballs trying to keep up with the Jones's.  We buy new cars that are way over our real budgets, buy houses we can't afford, have 2 cars, new computers, fastest internet, all the cable channels, the biggest cellphone plans, text messaging, buy large steaks, go out to eat, buy new furniture, etc.......  And yet, they will complain when a small % of their bills goes up because of supply and demand.  These are the same people that complain when the ATM fees go from 1.50 to 2.25 because they can't afford it.

Let's just be realistic.  If you are spending every single dollar of your paycheck each month, you have done LOUSY planning.  Sure accidents happen, people get laid off, etc..  But you get back up and get after it.  IF you have no reserve, you have no plan, prices go up, you have no way to pay for it.  This is NO ONE's FAULT but your own.  

I hate paying high gas prices, but I want to get to work.  Until I lose money from driving in compared to having a closer lower paying job, I am not going to worry about it and i am going to continue to plan ahead.

(my rant, sorry to all)

There will always be a debate about the causes of global CHANGES, not warming.  Scientific concensus is that it exists, it's getting worse, and we're at least partially to blame.  So many people have the attitude that science will find a way to fix it.  But why bring ourselves to the brink of disaster?  We do have choices as socially responsible human beings.  

"We do have choices as socially responsible human beings. "

100% agreed.  We CAN make positive changes in our lives.

Drilling for oil or gas doesn't always go smoothly.  I've been in a mud filled cellar a few times - glad it wasn't this one.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-javamud9sep09,0,5424952.story?coll=la-home-headlines



Image from above article - Salvaging from the mud.

A modest proposal?

All the gem-quality diamonds should be ground up to make knife sharpeners.

Now.

No one in the future will care.

We're just using a resource that's there to be used.

Here's a link to an article about Chevron's discovery of oil in the Gulf of Mexico...  http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/2006/20060912.html

Chevron Conquers the Rock

ON SEPTEMBER 5, 2006, Chevron Corp. announced:

"That it successfully completed a record-setting production test on the Jack #2 well at Walker Ridge Block 758 in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Jack well was completed and tested in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the seafloor."

It is the deepest successful well test drilled to date in the Gulf, at a total depth of 28,175 feet. The Chevron announcement went on to state:

"During the test, the well sustained a flow rate of more than 6,000 barrels of crude oil per day with the test representing approximately 40% of the total net pay measured in the Jack #2 well...

"More than half a dozen world records for test equipment pressure, depth, and duration in deep water were set during the Jack well test. For example, the perforating guns were fired at world record depths and pressures. Additionally, the test tree and other drill stem test tools set world records, helping Chevron and co-owners conduct the deepest extended drill stem test in deep-water Gulf of Mexico history."

Wonder if this will keep us in "Peak Oil"?  

Sassy

6,000 barrels a day is a small amount of oil... The USA imports 12 million a day to function.....So it is 1/20th of 1 % of the oil america needs to function each day.

There are all kinds of these pockets of oil to be found...None of them are signifigantenough to offset the problem

This was just a test well - they haven't really developed it yet - so they are thinking that it should produce significantly more than the 6000 barrels  a day.  Usually they don't get near that much when initially drilling the wells - this is an extremely deep one, I guess.  It's still not the answer - alternative energy like using the sun will go a long way in supplying our energy needs - it's just so expensive still & you gotta know what you or doing or pay through the nose... I'm seeing a lot more solar on homes now.  Industry is dabbling into it more - especially when there are promises of huge tax write-offs.  But, human nature being what it is, won't do much more than it has to until it is absolutely necessary.   :-/

Sassy,

Say the well produces 10-20 times the initial 6,000 barrels a day...Say 50 times....That is still 300,000 barrels a day and they need to come up with 12 million...

So best case scenario it might produce 1-2% of the countries daily need. They need to drill one of these a month forever if they hope to keep feeding this country oil.

QuoteSassy,

Say the well produces 10-20 times the initial 6,000 barrels a day...Say 50 times....That is still 300,000 barrels a day and they need to come up with 12 million...

So best case scenario it might produce 1-2% of the countries daily need. They need to drill one of these a month forever if they hope to keep feeding this country oil.

You are looking at this find in the wrong way.  You need to look at the big picture.  Yes, this is a "small find" in relation to what the US needs each day.  But don't forget, we already bring in what we need.  This = more available supply which decreases price.  

There is more than enough oil in the US if we wanted to be independent.  But why should we be?  The price was high for a while, but we survived..

And here I thought we imported oil.

QuoteAnd here I thought we imported oil.

If we used only our oil, when it's gone, we would be at the mercy of others.  If we use theirs, ours is a reserve.  If some country tries to kill off our oil, we jsut ramp up our own.  It's actually pretty smart.  We control the buffer.  

Phalnyx

Dude....This is a drop in the bucket...And what is worse is that the Oil Fields in Texas and Oklahoma are drying up....They have been in Decline for 30 years!

So not only does this not alleviate the problem of importing 12 million barrels a day....It will at best  not quite or just barely allow America to keep pumping at their current level of production.

Your idea that we keep our oil and use the reserves of other countries is From another dimension

America is going Bankrupt....Their Debt is out of Control...The yearly deficit is out of control....Forget the war in Iraq....Calculate the cost of buying 12 million barrels a day for a year at $70 a barrel

America would still have to pay the oil companies here for domestic oil....But this is killing our economy because of insumountable trade deficits...The numbers are staggering.

The alaska field they want to drill and pump is a lot of oil total...But in terms of barrels per day it is another drop in the hat...

If America drills like crazy in alaska and in the gulf in federally protected waters off louisianna and Out west in protected waters off California...They might find a dozen pockets of oil....This is a very optimistic outlook....If they were all huge field and all very productive all of them combined would produce 3.5 million barrels a day...Which is a lot of oil...But in the next 10 years current fields will decrease quite a bit and there is the problem of America's ever increasing consumption of oil...

So if you think that demand will fall off and prices drop way off you are alone in this thought...The rest of the world does not think so.

When it comes to oil america is already at the mercy of others...The whole industrialized world is at the mercy of the price of oil.

I don't believe you have all of the facts.  Oilfields decline, yes.  But, we haven't tapped all of the oil in the fields.  You drill a well, it flows to the well and inventually, it can't get there.  They drill a new well in a new section and continue to retrieve the oil.  I worked for an oil company for many years.  This company owns one of the largest oil fields in TX.  This field has been active for 100 years.  The first many years, the wells just gushed oil and then they declined.  They kept tapping and more oil comes out.  Eventually, they sold it.  The company that owns it now, has fought the decline and won for many many years.  In fact, it is producing much more than when they purchased it.  It is one of the largest producers in TX, period.  They keep finding more of the field.  Just because a well depleats, doesn't mean the field is empty.  

In TX alone there are 10's of thousands of oil wells that are capped not because they are dry, but because they are more expensive to run than others.  But, at 50-70 a bbl, it becomes very profitable.   They are starting to get upcapped now.  More oil flows, more oil is found, supply goes up, price goes down.

I am not a person who says let's just leave it alone, oil is great.  I think we need to move away from it, but this is a GLOBAL issue and will take GLOBAL change in technology.  You can't force it on the people, it has to be a natural progression.

They have been predicting the depleation of our oil fields for 40 years and you know what?  We aren't even close.

AK,WY, etc..  other states have oil and yes, individually, they are small.  Together, they become massive.

"America is going Bankrupt....Their Debt is out of Control...The yearly deficit is out of control....Forget the war in Iraq....Calculate the cost of buying 12 million barrels a day for a year at $70 a barrel "

This is a true statement.  Americans suck as savers.  They suck at debt.  But, they will learn.  I am not worried about the "national debt", it will be fine.  The cost of 12 millions barrels a day for a year at 70?  Well, I see NO change in society.  Sure, some people say they won't go on vacation because it will cost an extra $42 in gas.  Well, if they are worried about $42 on a vacation then they don't need to be taking a vacation...  

America works, and works well.  Sure we do dumb things, but we learn, and move on.

Phlanyx, I think the core of Peak Oil is being misconstrued.  The proponents of this theory recognize that aging wells can have their life prolonged by advanced techniques such as horizontal drilling, water pumping, fracture extraction, and deepwater drilling.  Everyone with a head on their shoulders recognizes that we are not "running out" of oil, but the cost of producing oil is increasing and will continue to increase.
One helpful analogy I heard is a container of yogurt: when you first start dipping your spoon into the container, every spoonful is full (read: oil gushing from the ground).  After you've extracted about half of the yogurt, however, you start having to work a little harder to get the same amount (production decline).  By the time you're done, you're scraping your spoon against the sides of the container trying to get the yogurt stuck in the corners (oil field depletion).  If you're really hungry, you might switch to a smaller spoon or just start licking! (advanced drilling technologies)  In the end, no matter what you do, you can't avoid the fact that you only had a finite amount of yogurt to begin with.
The fact is that despite our advanced technologies, United States oil production has been in decline since 1970.  Global oil discoveries peaked in 1956, and the new Gulf discovery doesn't even make a dent in the total figures.  At current rate of U.S. consumption, that oil would be completely consumed in 2.5 years -- with continued growth, the calculations push closer to a year's worth.

Peak,  did you work for the same company I did?  They used a peanut butter jar analogy all the time.  It's true.  Like I have said, yes we will run out of oil, but it's a long long way away and lets face it, 50 years down the road, we wil not be using oil as a primary means of fuel.  It's not effecient.

Phalnyx

You need to remember that as wells decline there is an adverse effect on the cost to pump oil...

I do not have the table or figures in front of me...But it is something like after the peak of the well...It declines 10% every three years and the cost to pump the oil at the decreased rate is raised by 10%....The figures might be as high as 15%....But it is signifigant...The rate of oil recovery is reduced and the cost to recover smaller amounts of oil is increased.

Yes there are a lot of wells drilled and capped all over the world...However the mega large signifigant wells for the most part are being pumped....There are very few untapped super rich high yielding low cost wells left on the planet...

Instead we have small pockets under the sea floor or buried in the arctic...Perhaps small pockets under mountains etc...

Yes there are lots of them but the tota amount of oil they contain is small.

As for the debt...How do you think America is going to just be okay if they do not immediately start balancing the books and paying off this debt...

America is a world power with a strong economy...But the debt is out of control and currently they could not pay it off if the world banks called the note.

With the baby boom retiring this society will be one that is not working but staying at home to collect pension checks...productivity and GNP and GDP will reced and trade deficits will increase even more....These are all catastrophic factors for the economy

Ya soon we'll be back here,



The good life can't be far off .


Hey somebody stole my horse and wagon   Oh well imagine that photo jessh it was a neat one too Did you steal it Glenn ? With your forum , [size=22] POWERS [/size]

Must be some Russian trick the photo was from the Horse and wagon, Ukraine, : http://travel.webshots.com/photo/124846078/1046409700036581470tzEhIo


Jeesh now it's back  :-/ :-?   Glenn must be messin with me  

I have a buddy up here who's already there and he makes harness for horses in case anybody else figures this may be the way to go.  Oh..... not ready yet? :-/  (He does keep a few fossil fuel burners going too though.)

Looks quite peaceful, PEG!  

Sometimes the server the picture is on may be busy or down.   :-/  ... but Yahoo blocks pictures from going out to other sites after a couple requests from that other site so things look OK at first then --no pix.

Nah, I've always been in cushy government jobs  I think we're on different ends of the same argument -- oil won't run out for at least 50 years.  However, the evidence I've seen strongly suggests that our global production will peak relatively soon.  After that, we face a reality of steadily decreasing amounts of oil per capita.  We may be able to offset some of our energy debt with alternatives, but no combination of such can come close to equating the energy we get from oil (whether the peak comes soon or in 20 years).  We will be forced to conserve one way or another.