local economy

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

Oklahoma has been billed as one of the more 'recession-proof' states in the nation, and our housing market is still fairly strong, though you can feel the squeeze recently in the retail market the most.  It's like the stores are begging people to come in and buy.  However, it hadn't seemed like it was THAT bad until last night.  After DD's fiddle lesson, I had a real hankering for Korean food, so when we got back home, DH and I decided we'd go out for Korean food. Since we moved back to OK, we've become friends with the new owners of a little Korean restaurant in Del City.  We used to eat there a long time ago when the previous family owned it.  Anyway, they have a nice, clean little restaurant with good prices.  We got there last night and I thought it was unusual that the owner didn't come out to talk to us as she always has when we've eaten there.  Instead, her young son, (who incidentally looks like a mini-me of Obama) was waiting on us and bemoaning the fact that he didn't want Obama to win the election but thought it was inevitable.  (To clarify, the owner is a Korean lady married to a white guy, and their adopted son is black, so they're pretty colorful.)  It looked like we'd be the last customers of the night, as we came in around 7 o'clock, and they close at 8.  When the news went to a commercial break, the son, Thomas, came over to chat with us, and mentioned that it was a good thing that we'd come in tonight, because it was their last night.  A little later, his mom came out of the kitchen and gave us their home phone number, and told us that they were filing bankruptcy because the construction in front of their restaurant had closed the road down for so many months that they couldn't stay in business. (There was another way in, but it greatly limited the accessibility and visibility of the restaurant, which sits back off the main road at the back of a little strip mall; it also negated any traffic going in or out of the college, which used to be the main source of customers.)  Anyway, it was kind of sad... we were their last customers on their last night in business.   Just goes to show that no place is really recession proof.... maybe recession resistant, but not proof.  Or, Oklahoma could just be as my Grandpa said when I asked him about the great depression one time; he told me, "We didn't even know that there was a Depression because we'd always been poor."

[ScottA]

Localy here in mayes county. Gatoraid just closed the new plant they built a little over a year ago laying off 260 people. Georgia Pacific closed it's plant as well I belive 90 or so lost thier jobs. Google has pushed back it's project till later next year delaying several hundered new jobs that where due to open this year. Construction has died completly here but Tulsa (50 mile commute) still has work to offer. It's really not all that bad here yet but it doesn't look good for the comming months.

[glenn kangiser]

Small repair jobs are picking up for me but mostly because I havce been trying to generate more local work.  Big steel jobs are being done in the valley mostly by one larger company who underbids everything.  We don't know how long he can remain in business as even the steel companies can't do their own work - he does it cheaper than wholesale for them.  Some day he will make a big booboo.

I do have one job for them as I carry different insurance that will let me do apartments so they have to hire me-- It is much more expensive though.

In general it looks skinny around here and I am continuing to try to cut expenses.

[desdawg]

I think it looks pretty grim no matter where you go.

[glenn kangiser]

It seems to be all over..... 

I guess you could take that two ways...

[John Raabe]

Back to the future all over again.

There will be likely be more folks resorting to local and smaller scale economic activity as some of the bigger players are forced to cut back or close down.

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

John, I hope you're right.  I'd like to see little Mom 'n' Pop places flourish. When I was a kid, our tiny little town had two grocery stores.  One was a bigger supermarket kind, and then there was Bird's General store.  Bird's sold groceries as well as tractor parts and fabric and even some clthes (mostly bib overalls and chambray shirts.)  When I was a kid, my cousin and I would go down there and buy candy on our own "credit" accounts, then bicycle back home and sell the candy to some our neighbors who weren't allowed that far from their house and make a profit and then we'd ride our bikes back to Bird's and pay off our accounts, and sometimes buy more candy  for ourselves.  Mr. Bird was the local butcher, and I remember him butchering the meat right there in the back of the store so that everyone could see what he was doing and how it was done, one cow, pig, or chicken at a time.  I remember a lot of people who would get the majority of their groceries from Seikle's (the other store) and still go buy their meat from Mr. Bird.  Mr. Bird was also the local poet, and to this day when I hear the word "celestial" I think of him; I don't think he ever wrote a poem without throwing it in once or twice for good measure.   As people began driving to the bigger stores in Shawnee and the city, Seikle's eventually went out of business.  Next was the local little drugstore, Lyle's.  There was also a little furniture store, and out it went too.  Bird's held on the longest.... that and the Bank of Commerce, which was eventually bought out by Bancfirst (but our elderly neighbor, Mr. Ellsworth, who'd started the bank a long time ago, still went into his office nearly every day until he died about a year ago.)  Now that town doesn't have much of anything.  There is some cheap Dollar Store place, a couple of gas stations, and a bank, but that's about it. The local cafe' was bought out by an Iranian guy who doesn't talk to anyone and keeps bellyaching about his "rights"; my aunt is convinced that he is an Al Queda operative and will no longer eat at the cafe', which make for some entertaining conversation. ) No grocery store.  It's sad.  When I go back there, I feel like I don't know anyone.  It's grown, but the local economy has died, and with it the sense of community. 

[glenn kangiser]

I am now working (contracted the steel for) with a major homebuilder who has switched to building apartments at the present time. 

Most of our cities around here have lots and lots of empty overpriced unsold new houses and stopped housing projects - many are former high dollar ones.

[peternap]

We're seeing lots of big layoffs. Several large companies just announced they were moving out of the state. One going to NC (I guess for tax reasons).

My son in law works for one of the biggest tree companies and everyone in the company is having their hours cut.

There are some commercial buildings going up, but not many. Residental construction has pretty much stopped.

OTOH, Walmart is doing a bumper business. Bass Pro is swamped all the time (That gives you an idea of what Virginians hold dear ).

Now to the underground, more contractors with county licenses only are popping up. I'm not sure what the limit is now but it used to be 1500.00 and they would split bigger jobs into separate contracts. No insurance and in a lot of cases, no skill.

More under the radar construction for sheds, etc.

More backyard automotive repair people.

More flea market type retail places. I went to a flea market last week and bought a new in the box, Dewalt 4" angle grinder for $25.00. He had 20 or so of them plus saws and sanders.

Lots of local craigslist retailers.

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

That's how it was in Wisconsin, too.  Even a year ago, a banker told DH that the foreclosure rate was 41% on the homes in our area, and yet there were new homes being built all the time... anyone with an ounce of common sense had to see that it would crash eventually.

Glenn, I hope you can find plenty of work in spite of the economy.  My dad is in steel construction and I know that the economy is really hurting their business even though Oklahoma is not nearly as bad off as the rest of the country.  

[MountainDon]

NM:   

The housing market is not nearly as bad as in the rest of the country, especially next door AZ. However a large local home grown home furnishing store (American Home) has entered Chapter 11 and will be closing many of its stores.

OTOH, the local gun stores have reported up to a 20% upswing in firearm sales in the past couple months, particularly handguns and "assault" style rifles. Some expect sales to increase with the election of Obama.

My last two visits to Home Depot, after 6 PM on weekdays, were amazing in the lack of numbers of customers. Ditto Sam's Club on same nights.

[NM_Shooter]

NM economy is tightly tied to Military / Aerospace.  We live or die together.

I support this industry in regards to electronic components, and I see that due to existing tight budgets, that many of these folks are already turning to gray market parts for their end assemblies.  When I learn of these sorts of things, I go in and talk to their quality folks.  Usually, they turn white, then red, and run off to yell at someone...usually the purchasing department. 

Many times, especially in the less than mission critical, or perhaps the consumer environment, these companies just don't care whether or not their components have a quality pedigree.  They want the cheapest parts they can get. 

Usually the gray market parts are OK.  They come from companies that had excess stock, or went belly up, or whatever.  Sometimes the parts are reclaimed electronics from recyclers, which is a bad thing to use.  In some instances, the parts are counterfeit, which is of course the worst scenario.

Even in low tech stuff we are feeling the pinch.  Down in Socorro, NM we had the Presto Pressure cooker factory about 10 years ago.  They were a perfect community member.  A good employer, provided funds to all sorts of local activities (firefighters, boyscouts, softball teams, local schools, etc). 

They ended up relocating overseas... China I think.  It became a matter of corporate survival.  They anticipated having to go out of business if they didn't leave.  The newspaper said that they could build and ship their product from China for less than the cost of raw materials here. 

Our next president had better understand how to compete in a global economy.  A socialist view is not a good indication that he knows how to foster a winning economic team.  We are going to get our lunches eaten.

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

Shooter, bet you're glad you got your chickens when you did!

[muldoon]

I had a longer response to this thread typed out but dont really want to submit it because I dont really want to continue talking about it.  oil touched 57 today (brent crude on ice exchange), down from 140 some 3 months ago.  Many, indeed most, of the country may be celebrating this little victory however it has done terrible things to the company I work for.   It's full scale panic cost cutting and layoff mode at my job.   

It is *NOT* fun to have to tell people they are out of a job right now, and then to tell others on the same team they will be expected to pick up the slack and put in 60-70 a week at a minimum. 

[ScottA]

Oil was brought down to keep the Arabs in line and to a lesser degree to hurt Iran and Russia. They'll buy the debt or they'll go bankrupt like everyone else. No one belives it but the USA doesn't NEED middle east oil. The USA has all the oil it will ever need. They force us (consumers) to buy from them so they can turn around and buy our debt. It's a secret tax. If they break the deal like they've tried to do recently they simply lower the spot price to a point where they can no longer make a profit. I think you'll see US bonds getting purchaced real soon.

[muldoon]

Oil was brought down to keep the Arabs in line and to a lesser degree to hurt Iran and Russia. They'll buy the debt or they'll go bankrupt like everyone else. No one belives it but the USA doesn't NEED middle east oil. The USA has all the oil it will ever need. They force us (consumers) to buy from them so they can turn around and buy our debt. It's a secret tax. If they break the deal like they've tried to do recently they simply lower the spot price to a point where they can no longer make a profit. I think you'll see US bonds getting purchaced real soon.

There is alot of truth in that post Scott.  To see it coming from someone else is a little unnerving.  There are some other factors, monetary deflation being a big one.  Deleveraging and Forced liquidation  being another big one.  Currency manipulation has some effect on it as USD continues to rally against others.  To some extent reduced global demand plays a part; However that doesn't discredit your speculation, it's very relevant but not discussed much.    There are alot of moving parts in the equation. 

And speaking of bonds, were floating some huge auctions coming up in the next month, literally 400% above anything we have previously attempted, and that is just the tip of the iceburg.  The treasury has committed some 2.7 trillion in bailouts in the last 60 days.  Were still printing T's, but they go to auction.  I wonder what tail we see on that issue next... 

[NM_Shooter]

Shooter, bet you're glad you got your chickens when you did!

We're getting 9 eggs a day out of 11 hens, and I am already sick of them.  Fried, poached, boiled, egg salad, you name it.  I'm starting to feel like the chicken rancher on Napoleon Dynamite.

I told my kids to make a sales flyer.  $2.50 a dozen.

-f-

[MountainDon]

How do I get some?

(use the email you have if you wish)

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

   Teach your kids to make flan out of them... good stuff!  Or plain ol' egg custard is pretty good for dessert, too.  And maybe you can sell a few for some goofing off money.  At least y'all won't starve.  That is one thing I think about comparing what we earn now as opposed to when DH was in graduate school.... back then we were dead broke, money-wise, but we never lacked any good thing to eat with the chickens laying more eggs than we could eat and the garden busting at the seams.  I remember on our first anniversary, we went to Oklahoma City.  We couldn't afford to do much, so we decided to go to the zoo.  After paying our admission, all we had left was an assortment of change.  We were standing next to a Coke machine trying to come up with enough change between us to buy a pop to share, and this older couple felt sorry for us and bought us one when we asked if we could trade them fifteen pennies for a dime and a nickel.  

by the way, who is the chicken rancher on Napolean Dynamite?

[MountainDon]

Napoleon had a job for about a day on a chicken ranch.  IIRC there was a lunch scene.

[peternap]

Shooter, bet you're glad you got your chickens when you did!

We're getting 9 eggs a day out of 11 hens, and I am already sick of them.  Fried, poached, boiled, egg salad, you name it.  I'm starting to feel like the chicken rancher on Napoleon Dynamite.

I told my kids to make a sales flyer.  $2.50 a dozen.

-f-

As much as I love eggs, they do get old by themselves. Now you need to let some of those eggs become chickens so you can have chicken and dumplings, fried chicken, stewed chicken, chicken pot pie....you get the idea....but, you need hogs. Ham, bacon, porkchops sausage, seasoning for the green beans you need to grow. It never ends. Oh, did I mention corn

[NM_Shooter]

You know what I really need?  A tractor.  How the heck can people expect me to farm chickens without a tractor?

[Whitlock]

You know what I really need?  A tractor.  How the heck can people expect me to farm chickens without a tractor?

Or better yet build a chicken tracor Them darned ole chickens will tear the ground up for you.
It also sounds like you need a pig. Allways have to have a pig around to eat everything the family can't

[Homegrown Tomatoes]

And while you're at it, why don't you get you a little dairy goat that's bred, and then you can have fresh milk, and you can butcher the kid for meat? (Goat makes pretty decent sausage, meatloaf, spaghetti, burgers, etc., etc., )  Whatever milk that y'all can't drink, I'm sure the hogs would be happy to clean up for you!

[Pox Eclipse]

We're getting 9 eggs a day out of 11 hens, and I am already sick of them. 

Don't forget, you can make homemade mayonnaise!