Flip a coin

peternap · September 16, 2008, 08:21:42 AM

This is not stock advice. This is gambling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AIG is the key stock for today. If they don't get a 75 billion dollar loan today, they will file bamkrupcy tomorrow. That said, AIG is a good company with no money right now.

I think they will get bailed out by someone. A lot of experts disagree with me. It's at 2.30 something now in pre market. I expect the price to drop. I haven't decided what entry price yet but if it gets there, I'll risk a bet on it. I expect the price to be 30.00 in a year.

This is the state of our economy now!

peternap · September 16, 2008, 08:37:46 AM

Son of a gun....the Russian Ruble just crasheed!

September 16, 2008, 08:38:36 AM

Anyone who buys stock now is crazy. The game is rigged with all the government tampering and after hours secret trading going on.

Squirl · September 16, 2008, 08:48:55 AM

AIG is the largest insurance company in the world with over 1 trillion dollars in assets. All those wall street types that cried "too much government oversight" "let the market work" are now looking for government bailouts. Outrageous. I hate the idea of "too big to fail." The point of them growing so big was because it was supposed to be more profitable and less likely for them to fail. Let the market work.

desdawg · September 16, 2008, 08:51:55 AM

I would just like to see the non-financial sector stocks come back to some semblance of sanity. Everything is being punished right now. Of the ones I hold my retailers held up the best yesterday. Home Depot and Staples. AIG is at $1.29.

September 16, 2008, 08:53:13 AM

I agree....but again, AIG actually is well run and sound except, it's assets are no good now. It's like having 900.00 an ounce gpld when the price is 700.00.

I took the jump for 3000 shares at 1.32.

It's already hit 2.95 a couple of times. This is what makes ulcers Des. Do I gamble and let it ride or take a healthy instant profit and run?

Am I being a fox or a pig. Pihs get slaughtered. Ain't it fun!

peternap · September 16, 2008, 09:10:01 AM

Not the end of the story because what happens with AIG will set the stage for the market for a while......but I blinked and sold at 2.50. I'll take a 3000.00 profit in an hour and eight minutes.

NO PORK TODAY!

glenn kangiser · September 16, 2008, 10:12:52 AM

Too scary for me.

peternap · September 16, 2008, 10:27:54 AM

I went out to do some real work between rain showers....but damned if it doesn't look like the FED bailed them out. I'll see in a minute if it keeps raining.

Now....did I make 3000.00 or lose 30, 000.00. Never look back.

There are the headlines, the FED is thinking about a bailout now. I'll bet they do!

September 16, 2008, 10:40:19 AM

Where does all the fed bail out money come from? Do we pull it from the debt being racked up for Iraq?

I don't see where it comes from --we borrow more from those who can't afford for us to totally fail thereby keeping our bankrupt economy on life support?

I wonder when a hurricane will disrupt the power grid and all life support will end no matter what the doctors try to do? hmm

peternap · September 16, 2008, 11:11:47 AM

They don't have the money Glenn. They can't even cover the FDIC calls right now.
This is part of the very complicated meltdown I keep talking about.

Have you ever watched a pot of lead melt. It looks solid even though you know it;d hot. Then all at once, the surface crumbles and it's all melted.

Squirl · September 16, 2008, 11:16:11 AM

The government gets the money by borrowing it. That is the cycle that no one will get off. Its fun game of mutual destruction. We run huge trade deficits with the Middle East and Asia. They get big stacks of dollars with nothing to trade back for them, except our debt. It is the only way our currency hasn't been devalued with these trade imbalances. That is why our currency started to slip in value, because people wouldn't trade their dollars back to the U.S. for goods or debt. So, the way the government gets out of it is by buying up these banks and guaranteeing to foreign governments and investors that they will get their money back, because they have the power to take it from the American people. This keeps the cycle going. If the foreign governments don't trade the money back and buy up U.S. Treasury bonds with it, the bonds they hold lose value with its value. This would make the foreign governments holdings worthless. It is a scenario of equal destruction.

Squirl · September 16, 2008, 11:47:21 AM

That piece being said. I discussed this with many of my professors over the years. There are split views on whether this is a good or bad thing. It is similar to the view that if you own 90% of your house and the bank owns 10%, in the event of a loss you have got the problem, but if you own 10% of your house and the bank owns 90%, in the event of a loss the bank has the problem. Same concept bigger stage. If we owe the rest of the world we become the central hub for goods and services and our currency becomes what the world is based off of. If you look foreign markets are actually doing much worse than ours at this news. The problem is if they are able to "decouple." It's funny how close this analogy has become. With the major governments being a big holder of mostly mortgage backed securities of subprime borrows who have little or no equity in their house and can't pay for it. They walk away and leave the chinese government holding the bag. It gets more complicated though, when as mentioned in the article on the bail out of freddie and fannie when they won't buy back in. This means they won't trade their dollars back for assets (mortgage backed securties). This devalues the currency and makes it more difficult to float treasury bonds, impossible to do without raising interest rates. It is very difficult to fight two wars on the other side of the planet without raising money.