Building a country home in 2009?

John Raabe

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2009, 12:25:13 PM »

Thank you everyone who has shared their stories. I think the old virtues of hard work and self-determination are likely to see us through this period of "adjustment".

I am proud to say this forum group seems to be quite "old fashioned" in that way. Cheesy

Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning is one of my favorite "doom & gloom" writers... Here is another engaging piece on the mechanics of the world economy and why we should hire Bernie Madhoff to run it for us...

(Note: this will NOT be a balanced view.)

Put Bernie Madoff on the public payroll!

Today, we’re going to give the feds some advice. Many will find our advice repulsive. Others will find it shocking. Still others will think we are joking.

True, the feds haven’t asked our advice. And true, people will ice skate in Hell before they take it. But at least we will feel that we have done our duty. Besides, to them that give much is given. Something like that. It’s in the Bible.

Follow the trail of our advice to others...and we will get something for ourselves. What we will find is a fuller understanding of the economic big picture...and perhaps a better sense of how to protect ourselves.

We begin, however, with the latest reports from Wall Street.

The Dow fell again yesterday. It’s down to 8,474. Oil and gold are still going down too. Yesterday, oil slid to $37 and gold lost $34.

Meanwhile, unemployment in the highest it’s been in 16 years – and rising. At 7.2% in December, it is probably already 8% now. USA Today reports that men are losing jobs more than women. This is probably because the damage in autos, finance and construction, industries dominated by men, has been so great.

But you think you’ve got trouble? What unemployed Americans don’t buy unemployed Chinese don’t make. A report at Bloomberg tells us that 10 million migrant workers in China lost their jobs in the first 11 months of 2008. By now, the figure is surely much higher.

“Poverty does cause violence,” says a professor at Columbia who studied the issue. The Chinese government has warned that it may be faced with “mass incidents” in which it has to use force to keep the mob under control. Next door, Russia has already called out troops to put down a tax revolt in Siberia.

“I’m getting a license to carry a handgun,” said an American friend, surprising us over dinner last week. “I don’t know...but I see people getting desperate.”

Elsewhere in the news is a report that shoplifting in the United States is rising. More than 80% of stores surveyed said it was becoming a bigger problem.

And in Spain, people are so desperate for work they’re joining the army. When the market declines, politics – especially armed politics – increases. Like Ireland, Spain profited in a big way from the boom in credit. But now that the boom is over, it is suffering in a big way too. House prices are slumping and jobs are disappearing. Our team in Buenos Aires – which keeps an eye on the Spanish-speaking world – tells us that only 47,000 young men signed up for military service in 2007. In 2008, the total rose to 80,000. According to some experts, by 2010, one out of every five Spaniards in the work force will be out of a job.

The IMF says it may need another $150 billion to fight the worldwide slowdown. Chickenfeed, really. This thing has gotten so big, $150 billion won’t even be noticed.

The World Bank says global trade is shrinking – for the first time in 25 years. And here, is where we pick up the trail. With so many clues...so much data – so much noise! – it’s easy to get lost. But here we have a lead we can work with. Let us begin here.

World trade is shrinking. Across borders, at least, people are buying and selling less. Why would they do that?

We were afraid you would ask that. Because the answer requires more time than we have this morning. So we will simplify. Economies naturally expand and naturally contract. In an expansion, world trade increases. In a contraction, it diminishes. Typically, the big increases in global trade correspond with the rise of imperial powers – armed forces large enough to protect trade routes...guarantee the safety of merchants...and enforce a uniform, reliable commercial code. Trade expanded greatly during the Roman Empire...then contracted sharply when it fell. The Mongol Empire too created a huge free trade area in Eurasia. Then, the British and other European powers expanded their sphere trade along the shipping lanes...throughout most of the world...until they were rolled back from much of Eurasia by the advance of other hostile empires – the Soviet Union and China.

The last major boom in world trade came with the Reagan Administration. The free-marketers in the ’80s – both in England and America – lowered taxes and reduced barriers to commerce. Then, a remarkable thing happened – the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving its member states and client countries free to enter into trade with the West. China also realized that its rice bowl would be fuller if it too began selling to the West, rather than threatening it.

That Golden Age of ebullient world trade is now over. It could, of course, be nothing more than a temporary setback to system of imperial finance that is otherwise in good shape – a mere runny nose and sore throat...nothing to worry about. But the noise we hear sounds more like a death rattle than a head cold.

But the quacks are at work, busily making the situation worse.

Looking at the essentials of the economic situation, we see it in 3D:

A natural Deflation of asset prices in the financial world...

...leading to a natural Depression in the economic world....

...with an army of public officials Determined to turn things around.

Their approach is the old ‘hair of the dog that bit him’ technique. The world has had too much credit; they propose to give it even more. With $10 trillion in “stimulus” efforts all over the planet, they’re not giving only a hair of the dog; they’re throwing in the whole damned kennel.

These efforts are not going to work. Why not? Because you can’t help an obese man by giving him another helping of dessert. And you can’t cure an alcoholic by offering him free drinks.

If the feds were paying attention, they should listen up here:

The cure for a slump is a slump.

A real correction corrects. Cold turkey. Rehab. Debts are paid off, worked off, or written off. Prices fall to the point where they make sense again. Consumer items become affordable; an ordinary person can buy a house. An ordinary investor can buy a stock...or an apartment building...and get a decent return on his money. An ordinary businessman can make a profit from operations; he doesn’t have to count on stock options and rising share prices in order to make a living.

The way to cure a correction, we repeat, is to let it do its work. But that’s not going to happen. We’ll explain why it won’t happen tomorrow. Today, let’s continue to look at what will happen – more quack cures!

Our colleagues in London tell us that the English are proposing to “tax savings to force people to spend or invest, rather than just sit on their money.” That’s right, they want to stimulate world trade by forcing consumers to buy more tennis shoes from India. If they don’t, they’ll have to pay a tax!

Another wonder drug was proposed by two former Bank of England economists. They want the government to buy houses that go into foreclosure and then rent them back to the people who couldn’t pay their mortgages.

One thing you can count on, dear reader: you’ll hear about plenty more schemes to correct the correction. Many of them will get the backing of the government.

And all of them will cost money – big money.

Once a bubble in one sector has burst, you can’t re-inflate it. All you can do is to inflate other bubbles. After the bubble in the tech sector popped in 2000, for example, the feds manned the pumps. But they couldn’t get the tech stocks re-inflated. The NASDAQ never recovered. Instead, they pumped up a huge bubble in private debt – with gassy bulges in housing, finance, commodities, emerging markets and many other sectors. Now, that bubble has burst and the feds are, once again, pumping harder than ever. This time, they’re blowing up the biggest bubble in PUBLIC debt the world has ever seen.

Even Le Monde has noticed:

“The governments of the entire world are beginning to create mountains of debts in order to finance their bailout plans, their stimulus programs and their budget deficits caused by the recession. Even so, the rate at which the US and European countries borrow on the financial markets is near the lowest in history. It is only barely above 2% for 10-year loans to America and slipped under 3% for the German equivalent at the end of 2008... Some economists ask themselves if a bubble in government debt isn’t in the process of forming...and they ask themselves what will happen when it eventually explodes...”

We think we know what happens. The whole system of imperial finance gets flattened.

But at least if they’re going to do the wrong thing, you might as well do it well. It is a documented fact that neither the present U.S. Secretary of the Treasury – Hank Paulson – nor the incoming man – Tim Geithner – had a clue about what was happening last year. They didn’t seem to understand how America’s system of imperial finance – the system that undergirded expanding world trade – actually worked. They seemed completely surprised when it began to crash. Clearly, neither is competent to manage such a system.

So we have a suggestion. Why not turn to a man who does know? In all the world, there is one man who has proven that he knows better than anyone, not only how it works...but how to work.

That man is Bernie Madoff. Instead of putting him in jail, put him at the Treasury.

That is our advice for today. For it, we expect neither compensation nor thanks. But in the spirit of public service, we will explain – tomorrow – why Mr. Madoff is the man for the job.

Until then,

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning


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considerations

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2009, 11:31:33 AM »

So far I'm good, the house is about half done. I'm self-employed and do research/writing/mentoring for a senator.

The economic difficulties have made my part of the work much more time-consuming, as it is the government budget I spend most of my time on. However, those same economic difficulties could create a need to cut personnel i.e.; me. Ironic that sound budgetary practices on my part could get me to write myself out of a job.

Anyway, to that end, I've added to my task lists; saving cash every month, and examining every monthly expense for ways to lower them.

I created several 6 month goals. Stop paying for a portable john, get out of the storage unit, consolidate communications costs, and finish the cabin. So far, I've checked only one off the list - 5.5 months to go.

Saving money and finishing the house sound like they should cancel each other out, but I found they do not.

I'm human, imperfect, and don't always follow my own advice, but by at least setting the goals, the rate of progress has been much improved.


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Bishopknight

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2009, 12:24:03 PM »

Good article John, I enjoyed it.


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fritz

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2009, 09:29:14 AM »

John and others,

Talk about asking the tough questions! If I may, let me add my thoughts from my (narrow) point of view. As a compliment to all before I begin, I know we all come from various backgrounds politically and socially and culturally, yet I continue to be proud of how even our potential hot bed discussions don't break down to the Internet mud slinging that goes on so many other places.

Politics and economy == wow what a potential mine field.

I think to answer the first question, is this a good time to build? -- absolutely -- IF -- you have done your homework. I don't think the decision to build (or be the general contractor) of a home/shed/garage/dog house should be entered into lightly and without some thinking...or soul searching... The second part of the question, building a country home add more complications. To chose live in a rural area whether it's 5 miles, 50 miles or 500 miles from your supplies means you have to think differently. Not easier, not harder, but differently.

Another consideration is the idea of country living as a "simpler life"...."simple" is not complication free. By living in a rural area, I traded one set of complications for another set of complications.

So yes, if you have spent some time on this forum (or read a lot of books, or talk to a lot of people who have done this) and you understand what you are getting into, this is an ideal time to build. Even if you can't do it all in one burst, being able to build in steps an stages will get you farther than waiting until the "perfect" moment in the economy, weather, and work-life balance to start.

As for the Iowa economy, I work in the capital city, surrounded by banking, financial and agribusiness, so we don't see the huge spins of the economy like manufacturing or tourism dependent cities do. My cabin is in the poorest county or 2nd poorest in the state. That said, I'm not seeing my neighbors adversely affected either --- they don't rely on credit, have just what they need, and are still able to put gas in the truck and the Wal Mart shelves are full.

The folks in between are the ones I see having trouble. On the local Craig's list, I see weekly ads for "free horses" and just last week someone offered all his cattle free, writing he was "out of hay, out of money, and out of time". I suspect we'll see more of this before we're done.

So if I were starting out in 2009 - I would borrow as little as possible to buy the land and build.

Buy local - as much as possible. It will cost more $$ than the Lowes/Home Depot big box stores, but it will pay you back over time in both community trust and helping your neighbors.

Decide your priorities: your first year you may concentrate your energy and dollars into building the finished shelter, leaving the landscaping and the sustainable food gardens to a second or third year. Starting a new garden to support your family takes time and energy the first and second years. Unless you are blessed with pristine soils, you can't just drop seeds in the ground and enjoy the bounty of the grocery. Likewise with small animals or poultry for eggs, there is a learning curve and even the most experienced growers have problems

Spend less discretionary money: Last fall I started trying to spend $5 less each week and putting that money away. (Week 1 $5, Week 2 $10, Week 3 $15) (Yeah it gets real hard by week 20 or so...but it adds up.) Now, true, you maybe cut your other spending back, and then drop $5000 Huh?

on building materials but I hope my logic make sense.

Buy in bulk when you can, (within reason if you're living in a small space) so you have foodstuffs to get you through emergency bills or unexpected breaks in your income or cash flow.

Offer to help others If you neighbor has a big job, offer to help, show up, and pull your share. It, too, will pay you back, probably when you least expect it and most need it.

Don't expect to be perfect You will make mistakes. Reading this forum and talking with others will keep you in perspective. The TV build-it-yourself shows don't. Everyone makes mistakes, some small, some huge. Real life and real building doesn't go through the tv-edit booth to remove the goofs. They happen, you learn from them, and go forward. Some will keep you up at night, some will be expensive, but while others may laugh with you, no one who has done this will laugh at you.

Finally, building a country home is a little like the old saying about the best time to plant a tree:

The best time to plant a tree was 10 years ago, the second best time is now.


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Bill Houghton

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2009, 10:16:18 AM »

+ 1

Bill in the U.P.


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Terry

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2009, 10:51:48 AM »

Ditto, what Fritz said!! Smiley


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Terry

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John Raabe

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2009, 12:39:10 PM »

Don't know if this is on topic or not... I also posted this in the humor section - a good place to visit when things get too serious!


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glenn kangiser

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2009, 01:21:32 PM »

We're not real sticklers on thread drift here, John. Carry on.... rofl

.

Fritz - wonderful points and comments... thanks Smiley


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Okie_Bob

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #28 on: January 17, 2009, 06:50:03 AM »

Super tread John and excellent responses too. I too am amazed that everyone seems to be thinking along the same lines or at least
searching for solutions that are logical and productive. It has been pointed out, not only here but, in the news, that debt is bad and one of the first things we need to fix in our own lives. I have been working towards that for some time and it is happening. We have no credit other than our mortgages and car loans, one if which is paid by my company. But, still, with the hit taken recently in my savings, I am forced to continue working for the foreseeable future. Not a problem, I had just hoped to retire before now as I was about to do about now.
Anyway, I wanted to share this website with everyone www.daveramsey.com as Dave Ramsey has developed a system that helps anyone get out of debt and prepare for the future. I suspect eveyone on here had lived like Dave teaches but, maybe didn't think about it like he has. Anyway, if you want a plan that will get you out of debt, follow Dave's plan, it costs you nothing and is the fastest way to become debt free that I know of.
Okie Bob


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countryborn

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2009, 09:48:17 PM »

One more point to consider when preparing for the future -take care of your health & stay strong. We cannot know for sure everything that is coming, but strong physical health will be every bit as important as financial health. Especially when building your own home, or retrieving a hammer that somebody threw somewhere.


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hnash53

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2009, 01:56:55 PM »

OK, here's my two cents... and it's probably just two cents worth...but it's worked for me:

Our/My/Your standard of living is too high.

By too high, I mean this: A standard of living as high as it is here requires that Americans make oodles of money to pay for that standard of living. That's why jobs are going overseas AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO until our standard of living is lowered. I'm not talking quality of life but 2500-10000 square foot homes, new cars, etc. How can we really blame businesses for sending jobs overseas where people will work for pennies on the dollar compared to what we required to be paid here to maintain our lifestyle.

If mortgage payments were $600 a month instead of $1500 a month, and a used car payment was $200 a month instead of $550 a month for 6 years (yikes!!), we could work for less, still have a quality life and more jobs would stay here.

The only debt I have is a mortgage payment and I hope to end that this year.

We can lower our standard of living/lifestyle and probably end up living longer if we were to do it the right way.

Our lifestyle/standard of living now is actually working against us and likely decreasing average lifespan and/or quality of life. At some point, and we are probably there already, an increasing standard of living suffers from diminishing returns.

I don't know if you know this or not, but providing clean water and proper treatment of human waste AND KEEPING THOSE SEPARATE has increased human longevity more than any other single technology...even antibiotics. Higher and higher and more and more technology is not the answer. The greatest leaps and gains in human longevity AND quality of that longevity have been pretty low tech.

Blah blah blah rant rant rant....


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glenn kangiser

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2009, 06:25:34 PM »

Good one, Hal.

My standard of living is below ground level... waiting


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"Always work from the general to the specific." J. Raabe

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considerations

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #32 on: January 22, 2009, 04:53:44 AM »

Yeah and below the radar Glenn....good move. Now, if it just was invisible.


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glenn kangiser

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2009, 04:57:29 AM »

I'm going to work more on that, but I brought Whitlock's well driller and son here the other day and they couldn't see it though they were within 50 feet of it. The out buildings -garage - greenhouse and shop are quite visible though. duhh


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"Always work from the general to the specific." J. Raabe

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Bill Houghton

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Re: Building a country home in 2009?

« Reply #34 on: January 22, 2009, 02:44:57 PM »

We are waiting for a call from our bank to come sign the paper work to refinance our house. The day I called, the rate was 4.375, the bank lady said that would be our rate. We are actually raising our payment ($88 per month) but we are going from a 15 year (which we just did in April 08) to a 10 year. I told the wife after the first payment we would be down to 9 years and 11 months. The first single digit mortgage I have ever had. Smiley

I hate to admit that I am not very motivated when goals are long term (read lack discipline), but once a goal gets to where I can be excited about them (read impulsive), I usually keep putting effort into them regularly. So, we are thinking we could shorten that 9 years and 11 months quite a bit now with some focus and just the emotional excitement of what it will feel like to be without a mortgage for the first time. It is a terrible time to try and sell property, but we have a couple of rental houses we bought a few years ago (the down payment was borrowed on our house mortgage) so if those sell, we will be putting those proceeds on our mortgage too.

Whew, this is a long post. duhh

Must be cabin fever. Anyway, in the meantime, I am going to try and piece together our cottage. I still have not settled on what type of structure though. Could be pole building with cement floor or stem wall with a crawl space. I suppose the pole design would be the least expensive, but the least expensive isn't always the best way to go.

Bill in the U.P.


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