one more bubble...

[muldoon]

I'm still in the market but trading carefully. It's still working and to get the things I feel important, I need money. Today I'm hoping that the stocks I'm watching, will drop hard because of the jobs report and shorting, so I'll have an entry point. I'm using very little money so I'm only investing in the big ripples.

One thing I am buying is more land. I found another 100 acres near me that is going at a good discount. I can pay cash for it. Because of this approach, I feel I need every bit of information I can get about current and future events. At some point, I'll have to sit back and change my life.

That's gambling, not investing.  At least your being honest about it.  I am doing it as well, only on a small scale.  I know quite a few others are in as well. 

Here are some ideas
-- take them at your own risk -- there is no such thing as get rich quick! -- do your own research!!!

1) every quarter huge amounts of short and long term debt have due dates.  These must be payed or rolled over, we have had big liquidations all year in the month before the end of a quarter.  The big crash in October was directly related to Q3 debt5 rollovers failing and forced liquidation to cover debt.  If we look at last January, specifically the fed balance sheet H3 http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/ and go back to the last thursday of december 2007 - then look at january 2008 you'll see this in action.  banks non-borrowed reserves went from 36bill to 8 billion.  It had been hovering around 40b for years.   Fast forward Last week of March/first week of April from negative 50 to negative 90b.  End of September was -187b, one week later was -332billion.  These are huge CP rollover failures.  This year was not the year of the muni defaults, not the state defaults, not corporate bond defaults (not much anyway), this is all mostly commercial paper.  It will continue to get much much worse around these times.  This forces further "delevering" and forced liquidations or outright bankruptcys and defaults.   -- I think buying SRS in later part of December with a target to hold through second week of January is a decent lottery ticket.

2) bond market dislocation.  were seeing this in corporate bonds.  GM and F bonds have gone to 40% yield this year as fear of default increases.  At one point there was a print from GM for a 95% year over year return.  Currently our treasury notes are at all time lows.  As the fear of default increases these yields should rocket up as well, with a rising yield should come a lowering price.  shorting long bonds or TLT could be a big hit.  However, there is no telling how long the current trend runs, could be years, could be a decade.  might be a month, who knows?.  It's also a lottery ticket, but Jan 2011 puts sound plausible to me.

3) the political climate brings green energy back to the table as something "O" has talked about heavily.  I dont know whats coming on this, but if one had bought oil companies the week dubya took office they did ok after a few years.  He he intends to spend billions on solar and wind putting people back to work developing infrastructure and technology -- those ticks could be goldmines.  Again lottery tickets because they may find out that investments just cannot get off the ground afterall in this environment.  you cant push a string. 

4) recession safe -- jack daniels, bud, and any drug/alcohol related stuff.  security related seem like they could be posed for steady stream of interest. 

. o O ( I wouldn't mind hear what others are thinking about )

[ScottA]

I'm expecting the dollar to take a big hit next year. You guys know way more about this market stuff than I do but now seems like the time to be buying foreign currency.

[harry51]

Muldoon's right, at this point it's all pure speculation. The idea of shorting some of these markets is tempting, but it takes a lot of homework to do it even semi-intelligently.

One question is how successful will the Fed be with its interventions, between the direct ones mentioned a couple of days ago by muldoon, and the sneaky ones through the caribbean proxies?

On the currencies, that's an idea that certainly has potential, but there again some serious homework is in order, at least in my case. Regardless of the vehicle, with the volatility there is now, anything can happen at any time and things can go south at warp speed. What's the old adage? Don't risk money you can't afford to lose?

[peternap]

Muldoon's right, at this point it's all pure speculation. The idea of shorting some of these markets is tempting, but it takes a lot of homework to do it even semi-intelligently.

One question is how successful will the Fed be with its interventions, between the direct ones mentioned a couple of days ago by muldoon, and the sneaky ones through the caribbean proxies?

On the currencies, that's an idea that certainly has potential, but there again some serious homework is in order, at least in my case. Regardless of the vehicle, with the volatility there is now, anything can happen at any time and things can go south at warp speed. What's the old adage? Don't risk money you can't afford to lose?

Yep, Muldoon hit it. It's gambling and just like milking Rattlesnakes for a living. You have to be very careful or you get bit.

I'm sure everyone has noticed that there has been mostly bad news and reports this week and the market continues to go up. There is no reason for it other than hot air. So it's a hot air rally that will come down soon. I do think we're near the bottom but the bottom of the market doesn't mean an end to the trouble.

Harry, I have avoided shorting because shorting undervalued stocks can kill you in a few minutes.
For the long term, the only thing I would be comfortable with would be budget death services like cremation.

My big problem with anything long ter,m other than land or timber, is that the Government is still kiting checks. Sooner or later, the checks will beat them to the bank.

[harry51]

I agree on both counts, Peter. When I say "shorting", I mean buying puts. At least the potential loss is a known, even though it's admittedly risky at best. Thanks, and best wishes!

[glenn kangiser]

From one of the sites I frequent....



Wisconsin community to print their own money?


http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-talk_moneydec03,0,2902061.story