Investments for 2008

[Sassy]

As to the market, unless there are very stiff controls put on the hedge funds and their managers, it will crash. There's more money to be made by destroying our economy than by building it up. I've lost money several times by shorts destroying a good company.

No one seems to like to build anything anymore...they'd rather tear down.

You are so right, Williet...  if anyone followed what happened to Enron & some of the other huge corporations at the turn of the century (hey, that sounds like a long time...  ) The same thing is happening with the stock market as then... the hedge funds are one of the problems. 

You take a company - something solid - then you break it off into derivatives, hedge funds, etc etc - pretty soon what is traded is really nothing but it is still looking good in the market until the house of cards falls. 

This is even happening in gold - the central banks lease gold to each other to keep th prices down.  They both keep the gold on their books as assets - so it looks like there is double the amount of gold.  They also buy futures to hedge against the future increases in gold for when they "have to pay it back" - these leases are for months to years.  They are selling paper shares in gold now - and a lot of people are going to be severely disappointed when they find out they're not really worth anything after awhile.

The bottom line with a corporation...  make money for the shareholders - if it takes "creative" financing, cooking the books, whatever, there's lots of people highly skilled in the art of "bookkeeping" now-a-days 

There's the chance in making a lot of money but there's the chance, when the company or real estate market, etc goes down, you lose everything.  I have my 'Thrift Plan" or what you would call 401K retirement in the market - most now in "safer" places like gov't bonds but since the gov't is more than likely technically bankrupt

http://www.minyanville.com/assets/File/Kotlikoff_USBankruptcy_paper%5B1%5D.pdf

http://www.augustreview.com/news_commentary/economy/u.s._accounting_data_may_obscure_impending_collapse_2006091817/

I question whether I'll ever see the money by the time I'm able to withdraw the funds without penalty in 2 years... I often thought about taking it all out, paying the penalties, paying off all debts & investing it in more land...  I don't have a real positive outlook on gov't or the economy...  but I'm not fearful of the future as this isn't my final home...

[williet]

Peter,
I looked at several solar stocks and wondered about AKNS. I have watched First Solar climb up, but it's way to expensive now.....Have you checked out AKNS?

[peternap]

I don't know anything about it other than looking over the profile fro 30 seconds. It appears to be a solar service stock and I couldn't believe it finished up 1.40.

It's pretty new to have climbed that far...but so are a lot of the solars. I have it on my watch list and will look at it hard over the weekend.

I sold my solarfun yesterday while it was riding up on their contract news and made enough to buy a few ounces of gold.

I hate days like this. Even though the jobs report didn't have any ties to my stocks, they still pulled back with the market. That triggers stop losses and they drop like a rock. It'll take two weeks for them to pass this weeks high again.

[benevolance]

Erin

I did not mortgage my house for a rental property at all....

I am not renting out anything at the moment...

I am in the process of buying 50 acres I will be paying with cash...Cash I have here at the house...And then once I build a house on a piece of land I will rent out the house I live in now... there is a 3 bedroom upstairs and a 3 bedroom downstairs if I want to rent it out that way Should be able to pull 1200 a month out of renting the place.

I got a deal on this house because I saved up my money and when the bank just wanted their investment back on it I was able to jump on it....that is why I bought a house for 58,000 that was worth double that the day I took the keys. and after spending 25,000 on it and some elbow grease it will be worth approximately 180,000 We are going to hold onto it for a few years to let the housing market rebound and then it should bring even more...The house beside us sold last week for $140 and it was on a smaller lot(half the land) with a smaller house...it was not brick...

It does not have to be houses... it can be antique furniture, cars, building supplies, office equipment... whatever... if you save your money and are ready to buy you can find amazing deals and easily double your money on the investment... It does not sound smart or sexy like some wal street investment...But the math does not lie.

I am not a rocket scientist...just a guy who saved up a little money so when my ship came in I could pay for it. The possibilities are endless for people that want to buy sell and trade with real world goods that have a stable value...Learn about a certian type of good... save up some dough and start buying to resell...

We furnished our home by going to antique auctions and buying hardwood furniture that needed a little TLC.. refinishing sanding... glue the drawers or whatever... If you wanted to make a good living you could just buy furniture like that and to the minor repairs and refinish it yourself and then put it for sale all fixed up...When it would be worth a substantial amount of money...

I would rather take a hardwood chest of drawers built in Vermont 80 years ago over a stock any day... I can buy those and double my money on them over and over and over with little to no risk at all.... Stocks have risks and every generation there is a hiccup

the hardwood chest of drawers is just an example... but you hopefully should be getting the point. Erin I have turned my buy and sell classic auto part business into a 5 figure monthly income...And if I was a great businessman or super motivated I could make twice what I am earning now...

There is no way ever you will convince me that I can safely make that kind of return on my money with the stock market...not without insider trading information that is.

America by and large work 40 hour work weeks and then they go home and watch tv or whatever the rest of the time...When anyone with a little thought can double or triple their income buying selling fixing things that would be otherwise thrown away... be it home appliances, electronics, furniture, cars, antiques...Heck I even know a guy who makes a couple hundred grand profit a year getting stuff out of the dump... it is insane! Myself I never started to really make any money until I started buying cars from the scrap metal yard...the almost perfect cars people throw away..I pay twice their value in scrap and they are worth 5-6 times what I pay for them....

We live in a wasteful society... learn to turn something that is mostly thrown out into something you can get money for and you will be rich without risk...

Look at all the veggie diesel guys out there making a fortune converting cars.... collecting fuel... processing free cooking oil into pure biodiesel that they can sell.

I was never impressed with the stock market... and the older I get the more I see it as an evil system created by the rich to make money off the middle class.

[Sassy]

Just watched a 5 part video on YouTube titled "National Debt:  To whom do we owe it?"  @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30-WtZTH06o&feature=related 

Excellent review of the Federal Reserve, debt, central banks, wars, etc - watch out, it's a preacher - Rod Parsley, he was encouraging his congregation to stay out of debt, quit paying the bankers... "owe no man anything" but there is very little Bible thumping - in fact, really none - just history & info that should be common knowledge.

You're doing the right thing, Benevolance 

[Erin]

benevolance, I get the distinct impression you live in a much wealthier part of the world than I. 

PS:  I'm not sure about anyone else, but I'm not looking at the market as an income.  It's an investment just like my "high interest" savings account, except that it yields better.

[peternap]

I look it that way too Erin. And Benovelance is right too. It is risky. Stocks like the solar are speculative and I don't invest money I can't afford to lose.

The largest percentage of investment is in land. second in timber and a close 3rd is in municipal bonds that pay a guaranteed 5% tax exempt interest.

Then come the spec stocks that I have. I have done well so far with them but they do swing. I lost about 30 grand during yesterdays fiasco. OTOH, I made 155 thousand up until yesterday so I won't complain.

Other things go into the retirement pot also. Gold which is not a high gainer but is safe. I also buy gemstones that are rare. In some respects they are better than gold because they appreciate much more. Forging and gunmaking all go into the matress also.

I'm thinking about buying a saw mill now

Oh....I don't have any mortgages or car loans either. I do not like being in debt although it has been a necessary evil in days gone bye.

[glenn kangiser]

I invest in equipment and my business, Peter. 

I already invested in a sawmill and think it is a good investment.  Invested 3500 -- cut 15000 worth of lumber over 4 years.  Can also cut for others in trade.  Seems OK to me.

[peternap]

What kind of mill do you have Glenn?

[glenn kangiser]

I have a Wood Wizard.  It is a band saw.  Push through by hand - 10 hp saw motor.

It will take about a 30" x 20' log. 

Here's a link to info on it

http://countryplans.com/smf/index.php?topic=1166.msg10305#msg10305

[benevolance]

Glenn

I agree that when you spend money on the business it is a good investment because you usually always make the money back in increased profits and you usually increase the net worth of the business as well... Plus it is a tax write off buying equipment for the business..

And Erin the low state in South Carolina is hardly a economic hotbed in America... My point was applicable to any part of america..There is money out there just floating around if you want to make it...Anywhere there are people there are used goods to buy fix and re-sell....Anywhere there are people there is good viable products being thrown away...

Look at half the people here that have built their own house...Having the basic building skills to build a house would allow these same people to have a night and week-end small job business where they could make as much or more money on the side with their second job as they do at the office or wherever they work in the daytime.

And yes some people look at stocks like a high interest bank account but this is folly...The money in the bank is guaranteed it cannot decrease in Value... no risk.... so the stock market should not be thought of as a bank at all....It is not the same thing at all. The bank pays less because they guarantee security...

If you want to invest money you can do some research and invest in a local business...There are web sites where people with great ideas and products are looking for help getting their businesses going... If you do your homework and avoid hasty decisions you can make a killing in profit and minimize your risk at the same time... I would invest in America and my fellow man in the local community before I put a dime in the stock market

As far as I  am concerned that is what United we Stand is supposed to mean....

[peternap]

Glenn, is that the one Northern sells?

[williet]

Anybody else in DRYS and wish they were not!

Coulda ... woulda ... shoulda ... got out a few weeks ago.

[Erin]

If you want to invest money you can do some research and invest in a local business...

  I did.  Cabela's is local. 

the low state in South Carolina is hardly a economic hotbed

I didn't think you'd understand... Let me try to explain:

It doesn't have to be an "economic hotbed".  But it is wealthier than my part of the world.  Our median household income is $27K.  Where I live, people drive their junky cars (no emissions laws).  There isn't much that goes to the junkyard because anything that's still good enough to use is re-sold.  (Many of us have nothing but used furniture, for example) And so on.  Your community might be poor, but I'll bet the entire region in a 100 mile radius, is not...

We simply do not have the population you do, which translates to fewer jobs, and a lot less money (particularly the disposable kind).  I have to drive 90 miles to find a town with more than a couple thousand people.  My entire county is about 1000 square miles and only has 2200 people (and falling).
It's the same reason real estate is probably the dumbest investment you can make around here.  Seriously.  Like Don said, real estate is only as good as the local economy.  (Do a little Googling on "rural flight." Over half of the counties in my state have been losing population for decades... My kids are only 12 miles from their grade school, but when they start 7th grade, they'll be 35 miles)

Granted, I've never been east of Iowa, but I can see that there are a lot of towns packed into your state.  And towns mean people.  Like you said, anywhere there're people, there are used goods. We don't have much of the people commodity, either. 

To put it another way:
The western half of my state (where I live) is roughly the same size as your entire state.  In the space that your state puts 4 million people, my half has about 400,000.  Ie, we have about 10% of the population you do.  Now, even given that your state is like most in that most of the population is gathered in the urban centers, you don't have to go near as far to find an urban center. 
Pictures!  Pop. density map for SC compared to Pop. density map for NE  I guarantee that what you think of as "rural" is nothing like what I think of as "rural." 

Anyway, hopefully you understand that what works in the well-populated East coast might not necessarily work elsewhere.  (For an even sharper point, I could've written this as though I still lived on the Standing Rock reservation in South Dakota.  lol)
And if you think the market is too risky, that's fine.  But that's just your opinion and a lot of people disagree with you.  Myself included.  For long term investments in my area, it's one of the better choices.

[Erin]

PS:  You think this--

There are web sites where people with great ideas and products are looking for help getting their businesses going... If you do your homework and avoid hasty decisions you can make a killing in profit and minimize your risk at the same time...

is a safer investment than a well-established company like CocaCola or McDonalds?  Or even than a diversified indexing fund? 

I guess I'm still not seeing your logic...   

[glenn kangiser]

I worry a bit about helping small guys that just need money to make an idea work.  Most of them still end up needing more money. 

A old friend years ago got a great wood stove business going but got to paying his not too bright kids way too much money and in a few years went broke.  Hard to watch an investment like that.  I'll stick with my own ventures.

[MountainDon]

I think you could get yourself into more trouble, more quickly, with backing local attempts at starting businesses, than any other investment opportunity. YMMV

[peternap]

Anybody else in DRYS and wish they were not!

Not DRYS but it's been a tough market. I did sell 2/3 of FSLR on Friday and ASTI this morning while it was up a dollar. Bought back in on both at near the days low today

We'll see how the rest of the week goes.

[peternap]

I just looked at DRYS. Not a good day and taking a quick look at the charts, it doesn't look like it's found it's bottom yet. IT'S doing Ok in after hours and that always makes me nervous. I expect it'll be good when it splits AND bounces off the bottom but it may take some time.

[williet]

Yep, Isn't it strange how the markets can fall so low during the day and then seem to jump after hours (when the hedge fund managers play) and then crash again the next morning? I've seen more than one solid good company driven down by shorts and hedge funds.

I wonder how that seems to happen? I mean IF the market is REALLY in trouble and business is REALLY that bad in this country ..... Why is it only in trouble during regular office hours when most middle class Americans can trade?

My money is with Fidelity and when I make a trade, it can take up to 5 days before they allow me to trade again on the same stock. I miss out on tons of jumps because I can't catch the up swing and I loose a bunch on the stops (that I'm affraid not to have in place due to shorts driving everything down as low as they can). It looks to me like these massive swings are by design so little folks like me will stop out as much as possible.....miss the swing up and loose our money. It's not just a game to many people....Don't play with money you can't loose, OK ..... the economy of the country isn't supposed to be a game.

Maybe if there were some MATURITY in these traders on the street and just a small amount of PATIENCE....we could see the market line out some. As long as there are screwed up, scared children playing like floor traders ....buying and selling as fast as they can because they are afraid they might loose their half million bonus, I don't see much change. I'd fire the lot and rehire some 50 to 70 year olds who understand business and the economy....who understand their decisions effect the NATION and the WORLD.

I read the headlines every day while listening to the opening bell and it goes something like this....

OPEN...GREEN and GOOD...things are looking up..on track to be a good day.

HEADLINE...somebody somewhere said this or that company is only going to make 75% profit instead of the 80% profit the Street had hoped for......within the first 30 min of business.

MARKET goes RED...RED within minutes...the market drops like a brick....

Later...usually around 2 hours after the open....somebody somewhere says...maybe it's not too bad in China...or Mexico is sunny today... or a leader in some little country bought a new car.....

MARKET turns GREEN within seconds of that headline.....

And so on.....I really believe these children on the floor are listening to what media talking heads say BEFORE they make their trades. There's NO WAY a ship stuck in the mud in Africa can cause the economy of the world to drop within minutes of the news breaking.....or a bird crapping on Bush in France can cause the price of oil to go up.....

The whole things a JOKE! BUT it's OUR economy...not just a few folks hoping to win big like their in Vegas. It's very sad to watch this nation being destroyed by the lack of responsible mature adults in almost EVERY facet of our lives.....But that's what this country has raised for 30 years.......It's come home to us and there may be nothing left when the kids get tired of playing......

The tail (media/government) is wagging the dog (the market and our economy)...AND killing the middle class and eventually the whole country in the process....

another rant.....I need to get off the computer today.

[peternap]

I understand exactly what your saying. Th hedge funds drive me nuts too. It's hard for a small investor to get around them. You can play them to your advantage but it means watching every tick and that will make you want to scream in short order.

One reason I get nervous over large after hours sales is that usually means they are getting ready for a run. They buy it and then sell on the bid the next day, as the pice drops they cover their shorts, let the price drift back while they buy back and run it down again.

It's impossible to out bid the computerized trading.

I swear that thee economy might actually heal itself if they got rid of all the funds. Almost 40% of ASTI's float was short today.

[williet]

YEP, That's the way I see it. There is NO real problem with the economy. It IS a little slower than it was, but who could expect anything else...loss of REAL jobs and gas prices up so high...ect. BUT...if the hedge funds were to be made illegal, just stop ALL of them...or at the very least limit their ability to have such HUGE sway in the market.....our economy would be just fine.

The funds do exactly what you're saying and many folks in them are making money both ways.....it's not that I'm jealous or would want to be in the funds...I believe they're un patriotic.They are destroying the American economy. SURE, a few folks will get wealthy, buy as they swing these stocks for their gain, people are being let go at their work, good companies become worthless in a few days, products are being shipped to other countries where there are no hedge funds to manipulate .....it's the worst thing that's ever happened to our overall economy.

They shout FREE MARKET and at the same time use bad regulations to allow these funds to bleed our GOOD economy dry.......

Look at DRYS for example (even though it's not an American company, the example holds true)....DRYS is one of the two largest dry bulk shippers in the world....the shorts and hedge funds have found it now. It's up and then down ... to extremes.....In the time it takes a single ship to deliver a single load, the VALUE of the company can double or be cut by half....for NO reason. NOTHING changes, just the manipulation of the hedge funds and the greed of the shorts.

No one can tell me that a business that's based on ocean going freight ships that can take weeks to make a single trip should swing in value as much as DRYS can in ONE day. It takes weeks to make a single run. It takes months to get a single contract. The contracts are signed and the ships start their trip. On the day the 5 year contract is signed (and it's in the news), the stock jumps up. The next day it falls to the bottom because there's no contract that day. WHAT ABOUT THE CONTRACT FROM YESTERDAY??

It's still a good business! It's still doing it's business. The market traders just haven't seen it on the news this morning, so they jump out of the stock .... it drops and feeds the shorts (those folks who profit from a companys failure). Eventually, the owners will have to sell because the value of the company has been drained by hedge funds with all their extreme manipulations. It isn't looked at as a "good" investment anymore because the shorts have bled the liquidity from it, so it's busted into tiny bits that truely are worthless and we all loose a good company that's providing good service.

These funds should be illegal or at the very least regulated into practices that are good for a stable market and solid economy. I think they're the single worst influence on our economy.

[glenn kangiser]

Seems the unlimited money printing is a problem to me.  It is robbing everyone of the value of money they make for retirement by whatever means.  Soon it will take a fist full of dollars to buy a roll of TP.

The new argument is that the landslide in the value of the dollar is good for America as it will encourage outsiders to invest in (read buy up) America.  As other currencies gain in value and the dollar plummets, look for more of our country to be sold off. 

[williet]

Well, IF the plan is to replace the dollar with a North American "Euro" type currency...what better way than to make the dollar worth nothing. IF one plans to replace a system, the best way is to destroy the current system so folks will have no faith in it.

I agree with the printing of money thing. Instead of holding these banks responsible for making bad business deals...just print more money and loan it to them. Our money has been worthless for many years...the pipe dream is just bursting. I've always heard it would do this, I was just wishing it would be in 50 or so years. The Bush/Cheney team just went full force and the process got ahead of its self......

[glenn kangiser]

It was probably well planned. 

Don't assume for one minute that the big boys have the interests of the little boys at heart.

Follow the money -- in this case the big money.