Global crisis - whats your solution- NOT political !

[UK4X4]

Being a brit and living as an expat- I look at the global issues - they always effect me in some way , exchange rates - tax here -tax there

I grew up in during the soviet wall era - with my father in berlin while they installed it !, me being but just a twinkle in his eye

Looking at the world today - have we improved anything ?

Comunism failed due to greed- think along the lines of animal farm ( a book by george orwel)

capatilism now looks shot as well with the rich few - and their companys take so much from the pot that average joe is on the bread line

I luckily enough, live a cash existance- so the recent global loan and credit farce made and makes no diference to me

my property values may change year to year- but at least I can live in them !

There is global unrest - too many people out of work- the future seems bad for so many young people

Historicaly the young have faught the "world wars" and started many a countries uprisings

How much is too much ? should their be a cap on capital wealth - is X company director really worth 1.8 million a year while his secretary earns 100K

I have no answer - plan B is always in my mind with a young family and working for one of those global comapanies where I am but a number on the HR roll

I think within 5 years something has to change- not sure what - not sure when- I just feel the most recent "financial crash" is not over

we are in a transient period - with the existing banking structure at risk and via that, standard comerce which will effect us all.

In history there have been many global police forces from atilla the Hun - through the romans - the brits  and now the US (missing out a whole bunch of others)

many an empire has risen and fallen due to the common people

Along side my family history, was grand- once a past kin was the last pagen king of ireland

our castles and infrastructure is now in ruins due to common man not accepting the oppresion.( this dates back a few years ! (my clan these days is certainly not royalty !)

We are a wide and varied group here -where do you see us going in the near future ?

[Gary O]

Well crap. I was hopin' to read some profound, in depth replies this mornin'......

Geez UK, those are some loaded sentences.
OK, I'll be the first to share my thoughts and obligingly castigate myself.

Economy
Such a simple/complex thing.
Got interested in the basic monetary systems.
Read, in depth (for me).
Turns out, it's all confidence.

Economists stretch their brains around the trends, even figuring in the weather and epidemics.
But when things don't go the way they predicted, they say things like 'it was an aberration, shouldn't have happened', then hind sight occurs, pin pointing blame on somebody/something.
If their predictions come to pass they write a book.
If they don't, they write a book anyway.
In a nutshell, it's too varied to predict.
But like water, really has nowhere to go but back and forth.

US economy
All processes have fulcrum points.
We've all seen it coming for quite awhile now.
We have been way past fulcrum for many years.
Nigh impossible to stop, or fix.

Retard the trend? Yeah.
Stimulus (as exercised recently) = stupid.
The word 'retard' is quite fitting really.

If the trend is allowed to run it's course, the US economy will eventually come back, but not in our life time, and certainly not as we've known it.
Pretty simple really.....devalue the dollar until it's again attractive for the world to buy US goods.

However, if we were to really get serious, it would take the entire country to knuckle under.
This takes confidence.
Starting with a good leader.
We don't have that.
The Romneys of the candidate world tend to make me throw up in my mouth, with their obvious orations.
I pretty much would like to start slapping him until I get tired, then slap him some more.
If we had a candidate that was not owned, and said something like, 'I really don't have any answers, but here's what I intend to do', I'd at least listen.
It would be a start.

Local economy
That's my wheel house.
Community effort. It spreads.
No real need to expound here.
I'm hopin' it's too obvious.

People in the US
We've had everything, in multiple choice, for so long we are lethargic, fat, and self satisfied.
But, take away a few things...LIKE FOOD, and see how things can get. This I hate to dwell on too much.
Back in the early '70s when we had the gas shortage, things got a bit violent in spots, and grocery shelves got a bit barren. And this was from a false shortage, from tankers holding in the bays waiting for the price to jump, to the hordes rushing the pumps....incredible.

My self questions;
If my local grocery shelves were bare, would I share what I had with my neighbor? Would he with me?
Confidence......in my fellow man.

World Economy?
Gonna get interesting

UK, these are my random thoughts this morn, before my mind gets weighted down with something urgent and pressing, like when will the doughnuts arrive....and will I be able to get the apple fritter before the others get their mitts on it.....ugh, Mitt, wretch.

BTW, UK
My origins also are from the Emerald Isle
Éirinn go brách

[RIjake]

I was going to reply earlier when I first read this but due to OPSEC I decided against it.

[Native_NM]

"A hard working laborer, I was told, fancied working by candlelight. He had calculated that, during his vigil, he burned a 4-penny candle, earning 8 pennies by his work. A tax on tallows and another on the manufacture of the candles increased by 5 pennies the cost of his luminary, which became thus more expensive than the value of the product that it could shed light upon. From then on, as soon as night fell, the workman remained idle; he lost the 4 pennies which his work could obtain him, and without the tax service perceiving anything out of this production. Such a loss must be multiplied by the number of the workmen in a city and by the number of the days of the year."  -   Jean-Baptiste Say

It is worthwhile to remark that a product is no sooner created than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value. When the producer has put the finishing hand to his product, he is most anxious to sell it immediately, lest its value should diminish in his hands. Nor is he less anxious to dispose of the money he may get for it; for the value of money is also perishable. But the only way of getting rid of money is in the purchase of some product or other. Thus the mere circumstance of creation of one product immediately opens a vent for other products.  -   Jean-Baptiste Say



The global economy of today was a foreign concept to the economists of the 1800's and early 20th century.  Some of their theories are relevant, and some are outdated.  Keynes, for example, focused on government intervention as a method to return an economy to equilibrium.  He advocated a short-term approach.  I doubt the Keynesians today are performing the calculus to factor out the permanent affect of Social Security, a permanent welfare class, the military industrial complex, and the multitude of other factors that are inherent to the global economy today.  When I studied economics 30 years ago, they were teaching the same basic material they taught my father in the 50's.  I've picked up a book or two over the years, and they still teach the same basic theory today.   Keynesian theory is the basis for the actions of the last two years.

The economic models used today can no more predict the affect of a $1.0 trillion stimulus than Al Gore's models can predict temperatures in 10 years.  There are simply too many variables, and too much is unknown.  We can control cash.  We can control spending.  We can limit interest expense.  We can compute the future value or NPV of discrete decisions accurately.  The Ouiji Board voodoo performed in DC today is nothing more than a means to fulfill a political agenda at taxpayer expense.

The goal and solution, at least short-term, is a balanced budget.  Which will never happen. So we are screwed. 

[muldoon]

I like what I hear in this approach.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/44935992#44935992

[Windpower]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJKFw2Lk92g&feature=player_embedded

[muldoon]

windpower, I like Dylan Ratigan and he has been pretty consistent on this.  The video you posted largely comes from his rant back on August 9th. 

(it starts weird, but it's his show and gets going quickly). 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/44079837
or the youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Z1XOBDbIy0

[Native_NM]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJKFw2Lk92g&feature=player_embedded

He's just a little passionate.  

Banks are a business.  In order to stay in business they have to lend money.  When enough people decide they are not going to borrow from them, they won't be in business anymore.  The first thing you can do is move your money to a Credit Union.  Don't use a credit card unless you pay it off quickly.  Pay cash for your cars.

The best thing you can do is take a 30 year mortgage and make payments to pay it off in 10 or 15. Better yet, build your own.  If America lived within its means, banks would lose their power quickly.  

I have bankers begging us to borrow money.  We have an untapped line, which makes them zero revenue.  It's also a potential liability on their books, so they have to reserve accordingly.  I have worked with my banker for years.  He recently told me he liked it better when his customers were all deep in their lines and overextended.  

[Windpower]

Interview with William Black, author of "The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq-sO_uNaFw&feature=player_embedded

[Windpower]

The next crash is coming:  8 warnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-bank-failures-will-crash-wall-street-again-2011-10-18?pagenumber=1