Well, John's business should start booming

peternap · December 12, 2007, 08:36:22 AM

With the Fed's somewhat lame statement and quarter point cut yesterday, I think people just got slapped in the face with reality.

We'll see if John's "Muddle through" economics will hold up under a full blown recession (or depression...there's not much difference). In any case, I think we'll see more people building their own homes.

This isn't a novel idea. When I was a teenager, we all worked on construction crews in the summer. Everyone could do something different. When someone needed to build himself a house, he provided the materials and beer and we provided the muscle power. It was a pretty good system that's proven itself over and over.

peternap · December 12, 2007, 09:09:36 AM

I just saw the Fed's hairbrained scheme to cover their tracks from yesterday. Notice this the same thing they did after 9/11.

The best description of yesterdays market selloff, is:
Goldylocks wanted diamonds for Christmas.
The Fed gave her Rhinestones.
She had a temper tantrum
This morning, they gave her another package and said, "here honey, see if you like this"
The new package made her happy...for a couple of days but she's about to start taking cocaine to cure her depression and make her happy until the drugs run out.

December 12, 2007, 09:36:24 AM

I think you're right Peter. People should have been building their own homes all along. The last 20 years of economics has been nothing but smoke and mirrors since we're worse off now then before this suposed boom of the past 2 decades. I know I make less money today than I did in 1987 and work harder to get it. It's to the point now that sub contractors in this region are working on 5% or less margin. We used to make close to 20%. We can thank the Fed and illegal imigration for most of it.

glenn kangiser · December 12, 2007, 10:01:03 AM

I have pretty well quit working for the fun of it. Once in a while if I'm hungry I'll take one with a low margin and I do have some fill in jobs for friends that are low key but if big companies or new customers want me to work for trading dollars, I usually turn them down anymore. I'd rather be home working on my own projects if there is not a profit to be made.

On building their own houses, people have been so ingrained in the US with the specialist training that many are convinced that they can't do anything other than the thing that they were trained to do. I have news for them, but will they listen?hmm

I have always wanted to be able to do any job I would hire a person, sub or employee to do-- keeps them from getting me by the short hair...but I do settle for using professional help and knowing enough to know if they are taking advantage of me or not. Therefore, I think places like our forum are the perfect place for people who don't recognize their full potential to learn and get away from that specialist mentality.

Nope -- we're non-union here.

Plumbers can pick up hammers - electricians can do concrete- teachers can learn to build their own house.

StinkerBell · December 12, 2007, 11:19:53 AM

Peter where do you live? I have some Beer!

December 12, 2007, 01:02:32 PM

QuoteI have pretty well quit working for the fun of it.

I've been moving in that direction for the past couple of years Glen. As soon as my new cabin is done it will be paid for since I'm building with cash. Then I can sell my current home and retire on the proceeds. I've turned down alot of work lately because there's just no profit in it. I told a builder that I've worked for years and he says he can get it done for that price. I'm like go ahead but I bet you get more headaches out of the deal. My work is hassle free for him and he knows it. Another thing I'm getting sick of is 0 tolerance scheduling where they expect the work to be done even if it rains or another sub gets behind. They expect us to work overtime and weekends for free to keep a schedule. That sort of thing never happened even just 5 years ago.

williet · December 12, 2007, 01:22:46 PM

Peter,
That was GREAT! I can't think of a better way to put it

glenn kangiser · December 12, 2007, 01:51:47 PM

Quote from: ScottA on December 12, 2007, 01:02:32 PM
QuoteI have pretty well quit working for the fun of it.

I've been moving in that direction for the past couple of years Glen. As soon as my new cabin is done it will be paid for since I'm building with cash. Then I can sell my current home and retire on the proceeds. I've turned down alot of work lately because there's just no profit in it. I told a builder that I've worked for years and he says he can get it done for that price. I'm like go ahead but I bet you get more headaches out of the deal. My work is hassle free for him and he knows it. Another thing I'm getting sick of is 0 tolerance scheduling where they expect the work to be done even if it rains or another sub gets behind. They expect us to work overtime and weekends for free to keep a schedule. That sort of thing never happened even just 5 years ago.

I know that one. I quit doing Home Depots and avoid most Costco building work or anything similar. Last Home Depot the General Contractor was such a screw up he cost everyone else time but expected us to pick up for him and catch things up for no extra pay. I don't mind going back in and fixing other peoples screw ups at Tand M though.

MountainDon · December 12, 2007, 04:40:17 PM

Quote from: peternap on December 12, 2007, 08:36:22 AMIn any case, I think we'll see more people building their own homes.

I believe most people will just stay in their existing home rather than try to build their own. I know people and have relatives who should not be allowed to own power tools, let alone actually use them to build a house.

Some folks are more frightened by the thought of building something like an addition or a whole house. One of my suburban neighbors should have been frightened of the addition he started, but he wasn't and he didn't take direction very well. A paid contractor assumed the job and completed it.

YMMV

December 12, 2007, 10:37:51 PM

i bought the adobe block package and there was a whole folder of documents with articles and pictures showing how to build a house chapely and easily...

One thing we have to remember here is that if people are going to build their own houses they better do it in t he country and without money owed... Many places will not give a mortage on a house where the lumber is sawed off the land instead of bought at home depot...And try getting the bank to listen to an idea about a house built of straw bales or adobe blocks laid and made by you....

Good luck with that

Now if people buy their own land save up money after land is paid for and start building a house that they want with alternative materials and methods... Great

The best thing about this place is that you learn to do things differently and you learn how to find other materials and methods to build things that cost a lot less money... often you can get materials for free...

If say oil doubled in price, or the stock market crashed or the dollar got devalued and collapsed people would have to find other ways to get their houses built for less money than people are doing now...

Where this site is so valueable also it that we talk about growing our own food alternative methods for energy, heat...things people would have to consider if the economy collapses (should I say when and not if?)

I would like to see the interest rate go down more...But the Feds could care less about America or the economy here...They make more money when there is a crisis than when everything is going great.... stock market crashes, wars, they are just a bank that happens to be in control of America's economy...When things are bad and everyone forecloses...they buy up our houses and resell them when the economy recovers so to speak.... Not that simplistic but you get the idea...

the Fed is the single greatest evil in America today.... Which is why I am voting Ron Paul...I cannot stand the fact that he is a republican.... but he is the only hope we have to combat the fed.... He is the only chance to remove eminent domain....And he would end the wars bring all the troops home and spend the money on healthcare instead....

I think as the housing market gets worse we will see lower interest rates and more discount thinga ma jigs... they are just window dressing to get shoppers to look into their window... The meat and potatoes of it is the interest rate... I think it will drop more and if Oil ever stabilizes somewhat there will be a bounce back for the economy...And the housing market will level off... it may take several years to recover from the drop off....

What makes me so mad was the fact that the banks created a false boom for the housing market with the variable rate mortages to people that normally would not qualify to get a home loan.... And the collapse is the rates going up and people defaulting

We have learned about this trick and the market will correct itself eventually

I am glad that a lot of banks went belly up... they deserved to! They knew they were cooking the books with the market and creating a falso boom...And the bottom had to fall out eventually... Had they prepared and put the profit money away instead of lending out every cent to less than qualified buyers they would not be suffering massive defaults that put them into liquidity problems... It looks good on the banks and lending companies to be in trouble financially.... Serves them right.

glenn kangiser · December 12, 2007, 11:29:43 PM

Ron Paul is actually a Constitutionalist running as a Repuglican if it makes you feel any better.

The international bankers and big business as well as the MSM will likely do all they can to keep him out.

benevolance · December 13, 2007, 12:23:16 AM

i do not think that anyone can win as a republican after the mess Bush and cronies have made of America.

I almost wish Paul had run as a democrat...He is for social programs like health care he does not want to feed the annual war machine...

He is rather conservative on a womans right to choose though..As for protection constitutional rights I think he could run for either party and people would appreciate that....

Sadly I fear the republicans are doomed this time out...No matter who wins the nomination...I do not think it even matters who wins the democratic nomination....America is sick of the republicans in a general kind of way

desdawg · December 16, 2007, 09:13:22 AM

I just read an article in Money magazine about the candidates and their plans to save Social Security. Nine candidates were listed but Ron Paul wasn't even mentioned. It's always been amazing to me that one person (Bush) can take an entire party down. I don't like the Democratic Party. Seems one of the major planks in their platform is to take away from those who do and give it to those who don't. I even see it in our local area with the Board of County Supervisors.

glenn kangiser · December 16, 2007, 10:45:07 AM

Ron Paul wins about every debate or poll he is in so every time they have a choice, MSM leaves him out. Since he isn't sold out to the fascist, the system and the elite they will eliminate him by ignoring him, denying him or if that doesn't work they will probably make it physical.

December 17, 2007, 02:22:23 PM

StinkerBell notes that Peter is quiet after she offers up some Beer.

peternap · December 17, 2007, 07:16:56 PM

Uh....Not quiet....As noted in another thread though, beer drinking used to me happy. Now it just makes me sleep

On another note, If we could get groups together for house raising's, this would become the greatest site on the internet.
Something to think about John. Set up a forum on a state by state basis for old fashioned house building.

StinkerBell · December 17, 2007, 08:14:34 PM

I would love to help someone (someone maybe with more experience then moi) build a home. I think I can learn so much and I am a hard worker. I have my own pink hammer too!

glenn kangiser · December 17, 2007, 11:43:54 PM

Bring your backhoe, Stink.

StinkerBell · December 18, 2007, 01:26:50 AM

Her name is Bella..........

desdawg · December 21, 2007, 07:43:11 AM

It seems like after the dot com bubble burst everyone who salvaged a few dollars became a real estate investor. That got us to here as these new investors could get leverage and did. Many of these people had no experience with real estate beyond owning their own home. I know this because I sold property to some of them. They would take the equity out of their residence (HELOC) and showed up here waiving their checkbooks like it was their first time at an auction. They drove the prices. We have many new homes in the area that have never been lived in. Now those people are discovering what it is like to try to become a landlord with a negative cash flow.
I wonder what the next cycle will be about? People will always chase the fast buck.
Meanwhile I agree with Don. More people who want more space or upgraded amenities will look to remodel rather than replace. It is a poor time to try to sell and unless you absolutely must move. Staying put is a much better economic choice right now.

December 21, 2007, 08:30:53 AM

That's true Des and I agree about people remodeling. When I was contracting, remodeling saved a lot of butts when the new housing market went south.

What I was talking about were youngsters who have never had a house. Building their own may be the only choice for the next couple of years. I suspect the housing market will stabilize in another year, but stabilize at a very difficult level.

I also don't think we've seen the real problem yet. I have noticed that while houses and land are NOT selling, the prices aren't dropping either. I do see people getting fed up with realators (and I suspect bad advice from them is the major reason prices aren't coming down), and trying to sell themselves. The simple truth is banks aren't writing many new mortgages, and the ones they are writing are high interest.

I have been looking for more raw land. That actually went up for a while. The same checkbook waving idiots you were talking about, were buying farm and timber land because of the expected boom in bio fuels. Guess what....Corn isn't the answer and timber prices have tanked so they can't flip the land but have so much in it they can't drop their price without a big loss.

Now the rest of the economy is a big question mark but it doesn't look good to me. Every day I see businesses that I have done business with for years, either closing their doors or moving, downsizing and becoming a one or two man operation.

Stocks....don't get me started. I admit I have made a lot of money in the market this year. Even a bllind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. I still have stock in two Solar Companies. First solar has gone from about 20.00 where I bought it, to 240.00. I'll sell it after the 1st because of the Energy bill (Or lack thereof). Ascent Solar, I'll keep. They will be making most of their sales in Europe where the government has a little more sense about alternate energy. Germany has revised their building code to require alternate energy on all new buildings. It's a shame to take a promising company from Colorado and force them to make the majority of their business overseas.

Anyway, it will be an interesting year in 08. I'm going to sit on the front porch of my solar powered barn, with an end of the world supply of popcorn...and watch

Drew · December 21, 2007, 12:57:13 PM

I can't see the forest for the trees here. I live in the SF Bay Area where I grew up. My folks used to go around on weekends looking at houses. I remember one realtor saying "Thirty thousand" and it sounded like a lot back then (It must have been 1970 or 71.). House prices have grown at an insane rate. Even during other housing slumps, it only slowed the rate of increase.

I live in the first house my wife and I ever bought. It was a Fannie Mae repo we got in 1992. Two dumb kids with two kids of their own, stunned that they could afford a house. It was a 1200 foot cape cod built in 1954 just like 400 others in the neighborhood. When the kids needed their own rooms (The dividing sheet wasn't cutting it anymore) we thought we could a.) move to San Mateo, live in the flood plane, pay another $100K and get one extra bedroom, or b.) remodel. We went with b. and it made a real difference. We had space and the bang for the buck was good. Our back yard backs up against Golden Gate National Recreational Area land, so we get a view of protected land and the ocean. This does not happen in very many working class neighborhoods (i.e., houses listing at less than $1M) in California.

That was about 7 years ago. Now the kids are 2 years from college and we'll move out of the place around then. It will be too much house for us.

We are looking at building something like John's 20'x30' house. It makes sense to sleep in the expensive insulated and heated building, but store the junk in a cheaper per square foot building (railroad container, barn, whatever). The beauty of rural living is the opportunity for outbuildings and to pay for things as you go.

desdawg · December 22, 2007, 12:08:18 AM

Peter you are right on with pricing. The stuff that is selling at fire sale prices belongs or did belong to someone who took a whipping. Those who can hang in there and stay the course will wait it out and try to not take a loss. And yes the stock market is like a roller coaster. I can't watch. It would drive me crazy if I kept too close an eye. I check in once in a while and after all of the ups and downs I am pretty close to where I was. Most of what I have is in mutual funds rather than individual stocks. I like Vanguard as they keep the expenses to a minimum. And with mutual funds you can be diversified across a number of industries from day one.
As for the housing market I think we are looking at another 4-5 years before it comes back anywhere close to what it was, at least in this area of the country. All sections of the country are not affected the same it would seem. Areas like mine that took off hard will be longer getting back on track. Phoenix, Vegas, and from what I hear parts of Florida are all areas where the price run up's were huge and I think they will be the slowest to recover. The repo inventory will be large and will take longer to resell.
Drew I can relate to what you are saying about rural life. I have a pretty small house and a lot of outbuildings. In my experience when I have room to spread out I do just that. I grew up in the country and never had that conditioning where everything had to fit under one roof. Sometimes I do get to wishing my roof was a little larger however. Someday I may fix that but we have gotten along fine for a long time now.

Drew · December 24, 2007, 11:54:39 AM

I tell the kids, "Be nice to that couch. You're taking it with you."

I talked to the guy who rents out railroad containers. He gets $75/mo. for a 20-footer, $140 for 40'. The delivery charge is negligible, something like $40. The thing is that he knows he will never see that container again. Guys like me will give him $75 every month until the day we die.

Or we'll buy the thing for $2k outright knowing what Is is.

We're always going to have stuff. Even if we get rid of the magazines we intend to read, we still have our tools that need to be dry and accessible. I'll probably end up getting one of the 20-footers one day. Then I'll paint it white and put lattice on the sides for a climbing plant. Something to improve the aesthetic. I should also think about the top of it. It would be a clean, snake free 20'x8' area. Plenty of uses for that.

desdawg · December 25, 2007, 08:46:00 AM

If you are going to buy one I would suggest that you go and personally pick one out rather than just placing an order. There are containers and there are containers. Go inside and close the door, make sure you are not seeing any daylight. Some are more beat up than others. Usually a lockbox costs a little extra but it covers your padlock and adds some security. Also you can get a 40' container for just a wee bit more than the 20' one. Check the prices on both and you may opt to double your storage. Most places that sell them have other options available as well. I had a door installed midway on the 40' side of one of mine just because of the way it was going to be oriented on the property. In this hot climate it helps to have that cross ventilation when I have it open. And I was able to put a workbench in the middle with a straight shot at it though the side door. I use the non-door end for storage and the end with the door for a quad garage. Anyway there are different options available.