Russian Scholar Says U.S. Will Collapse Next Year

[peternap]

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

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MOSCOW —  If you're inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn't mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.

Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia's state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership.

"There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010," Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy — a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend.

The prediction from Panarin, a former spokesman for Russia's Federal Space Agency and reportedly an ex-KGB analyst, meshes with the negative view of the U.S. that has been flowing from the Kremlin in recent years, in particular from Vladimir Putin.

Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has likened the United States to Nazi Germany's Third Reich and blames Washington for the global financial crisis that has pounded the Russian economy.

Panarin didn't give many specifics on what underlies his analysis, mostly citing newspapers, magazines and other open sources.

He also noted he had been predicting the demise of the world's wealthiest country for more than a decade now.

But he said the recent economic turmoil in the U.S. and other "social and cultural phenomena" led him to nail down a specific timeframe for "The End" — when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control.

Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.

Turning to economic woes, he cited the slide in major stock indexes, the decline in U.S. gross domestic product and Washington's bailout of banking giant Citigroup as evidence that American dominance of global markets has collapsed.

"I was there recently and things are far from good," he said. "What's happened is the collapse of the American dream."

Panarin insisted he didn't wish for a U.S. collapse, but he predicted Russia and China would emerge from the economic turmoil stronger and said the two nations should work together, even to create a new currency to replace the U.S. dollar.

Asked for comment on how the Foreign Ministry views Panarin's theories, a spokesman said all questions had to be submitted in writing and no answers were likely before Wednesday.

It wasn't clear how persuasive the 20-minute lecture was. One instructor asked Panarin whether his predictions more accurately describe Russia, which is undergoing its worst economic crisis in a decade as well as a demographic collapse that has led some scholars to predict the country's demise.

Panarin dismissed that idea: "The collapse of Russia will not occur."

But Alexei Malashenko, a scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center who did not attend the lecture, sided with the skeptical instructor, saying Russia is the country that is on the verge of disintegration.

"I can't imagine at all how the United States could ever fall apart," Malashenko told the AP

[ScottA]

A breakup would be the best thing that could happen but I don't think it's likely. A more likely scenario is a states revolt against the federal government. If this depression gets really bad the feds won't be able to cope with it. They are so disconnected from the people by now that it's doubtful they could deliver any meaningful help to the people who will be homeless and hungry leaving the problem to the states and local governments to deal with. The states having this financial load placed on them will be likely to refuse to continue supporting the feds unfunded mandates in so many areas. The feds may try to assert some sort of force over the states but I belive it will fail leaving the federal government in some diminshed condition.

Another area they have problems with is income taxes. People barely able to make ends meet will avoid paying leaving washington with huge shortfalls in revenue.  The states will face the same tax problems and property tax revolt of some kind may happen in some areas. What we have now is a new Rome and it will fall just like the old Rome. The only question is when.

[wildbil]

With the cultures so different from area to area in the US, I believe this is likely to happen. But it could also be just a reorganization of the federal gov. Then again, it might also stay the same.

[peternap]

With the cultures so different from area to area in the US, I believe this is likely to happen. But it could also be just a reorganization of the federal gov. Then again, it might also stay the same.

We haven't settled the "War of Northern Aggression" yet!

[glenn kangiser]

Damn Yankees, Peter, Damn Yankees.

[glenn kangiser]

I had posted a link to this a few months ago - I have been watching with interest to see how his predictions will work out.

[Bishopknight]

I know bad times are ahead but I don't see this happening.