Will oil go up or down

[Mad Dog]

hi m.d.,

sorry but what does BOHICA mean? i am sure everyone else knows but...

Bend Over, Here It Comes Again 

[desdawg]

I guess so. This is new. I never saw signs for ethanol free gas before the last few weeks. Lots of beef ranchers around here who hate what ethanol is doing to feed prices. Also people saying that it can hurt your engine.

Peternap had a thread here a while back about how it was eating up the diaphrams, etc in his small engine carb's (chainsaws, etc.)

[benevolance]

bohica... awesome...

I always liked snafu... bohica might be my new favorite

[muldoon]

I would echo peternaps comments about the dangers of trying to daytrade this tape.  It's not a good idea at all.  There are moves that defy logic, reek of manipulation.   Betting the wrong way can get you crushed, after you get stopped out it moves exactly how you thought.  There's a few explanations for our current rally; but most feel it is related to falling oil, which is directly tied to strengthening dollar of the past 3 weeks.  Problem is, the dollar gaining strength doesn't make alot of sense in context.  James Turk had an article out on this, http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current  he lays out some clear logic for the case of manipulation.  If you buy the story, these recent gains will be given back in short time.  Until some other form of propping can be worked out. 

From my programming days, I would just comment in

/* caution, there be dragons here */

Were not in a free market. 

[glenn kangiser]

I think you nailed it, muldoon.  Manipulation agrees with all the stufff I read....but then -- no one else does.

[desdawg]

Yeah the suddenly everything is wonderful theory isn't even logical. Housing prices in the Phoenix area reportedly have another 13% to decline that decline lasting until Q4 2009 when prices will be roughly 60% of peak bubble pricing. I went out looking yesterday for a rental or two to add to my inventory and found a couple that are pretty interesting. Now I can afford to drive around and look. I also found a lot of garbage. One is a real money pit and is priced at $17,900. Almost everything is in need of repair. It is owned by Wells Fargo. I may offer 10K cash since I have a lot of material that will work there but it is a fair distance from home and I don't want to be pressured to commute to work on it. So if it sits for a while it won't hurt me. I don't trust gas prices to stay down come Fall when the home heating season starts.
The other one I found is a pretty good looking property owned by Citibanks mortgage division. It is priced at $38,900 so I may offer $35K contingent upon getting a new mortgage. I don't know if I can get a new investment mortgage in todays world. If the regulations allowed for Citi to write new paper on their asset they could get a better price and it would probably already be sold. Some of the big losses could be minimized if the rules were different a the rules themselves cause a lot of the downside. B of A wants $200 just to apply for a mortgage. There are very few mortgage brokers aound these days. They used to be as common as Realtors. It has almost thinned out to being just the major banks speaking of manipulation.

[benevolance]

Well in all fairness... Some areas had more of a bubble to burst than others when it comes to the real estate market.

Phoenix Southern California, Florida, NYC, Myrtle Beach...Those places were setting themselves up for a catastrauphic fall because they experienced growth rates and price increases that defied all banking logic for decades.

So the bubble has burst some of the banks got themselves in trouble and ran out of money...There have been foreclosures, new home construction has stopped in some areas...Prices are down pretty much across the board.

But you know what people still need a place to live and work and all of that so houses are going to sell. They built way more houses than the market could bear in some of these boom areas...All the builders wanted to get every last cent of money out of these markets...They were building more houses than people were arriving... they were ignoring commonly used business practices and telling themselves the good times would never end.

In places like Phoenix it may take another year or so of slowed new home construction and prices dropping before consumer demand levels out with the number of available houses and at that time you will have recovery..

IT is the same in South Florida where they tried to develop the whole state into sub divisions

[peternap]

Back to gas and oil.
The thing that hasn't been discussed in this thread (I don't think) is Georgia. This has been completly ignord in the market...why...no one is sure. Ask ten experts and get twenty opinions. Some say demand isn't as great as thought.

I've read everything I can find and the most reasonable experts say that it will have an impact. I have a theory as to it not impacting the market yet, but I'll keep it to myself for now. I have been hinting at it for a couple weeks though.

[desdawg]

It is not hard to get off topic when discussing gas and oil since nearly everything else is tied to it. Along with a reduction in gas prices is a reduction in food prices as an example. I just filled up at $3.69 my lowest price in ages. I have gotten back to running on the top half of the tank instead of the bottom. Whoever would have guessed $3.69 would seem like a bargain. I hope it keeps dropping down. I heard earlier today on the radio that a pipeline was shut down in Georgia although it hadn't been damaged. Just a precaution. I heard it periferally and didn't hear whose it was. I drove into Chandler this morning and picked up a firebox for the fireplace on my soon to be enclosed patio and the radio was on but I wasn't really focused on it. So it kind of slipped by. I have spent the last couple of days getting in touch with what is going on locally so I haven't paid much attention to what the Russians are doing although I hear about it once again on the periphery. I don't even care if John Edwards cheated on his wife.

[desdawg]

A blurb that mentions Georgia and oil Peter: http://www.thestreet.com/s/all-you-need-to-know-about-oil/university/energy-education-series/10423147.html?puc=_tscrss

[benevolance]

Well Russia agreed to the cease fire so calm is restored... Personally I think this was a test...  Georgia is allied to the USA... So they get bold and invade the territories that want to be part of Russia...A literal attack...People are killed the landside is blown up it is a real war with tanks and planes and guns...

Russia comes in and liberates the areas... and the Sh*t hits the fan when they kept fighting the army after those 2 areas were liberated. Why should they just stop fighting them...Why not eradicate them so they will not go back and attack those 2 enclaves again and again.

But today russia stopped the assault.

I nearly choked last night seeing Bush's address on TV where he said they used a brutal and disproportionate use of force...

that was too much for me to keep inside I was in a restaurant eating supper and I saw that and I yelled out bullsh*t

America has killed over 1 million Iraqis destroyed their country because 19 people from Saudi Arabia attacked 2 buildings in America with a civilian plane. We invading Iraq was a disproportionate use of brutal force...Anyone else remember shock and awe and the 5 days to bagdad?

Yet when Georgia attacks and Russia responds they are brutal and evil...

The propaganda machine is hard at work in this country

[glenn kangiser]

No sh*t, Peter.  I fully agree.  Mr Pot calling the kettle black.

[benevolance]

I think it was really a test...A Test to see how organized the Russian army is...Could they strike quickly and defeat a small well armed force easily. They wanted to see what kind of weaponry they were using...

The small country of Georgia gets to be the pawn in all of this and be the neo cons guinea pig