I finally did something right

[desdawg]

I sneaked an order through at $38.40 for the whole kit and kaboodle. Maybe I snagged a buy order that was still open from yesterdays fever. Down from yesterdays high but still a tidy profit. The price has since dropped to about $33 so far today. The price of tuition. I will continue to watch so I can kick myself later. I think the price was speculative yesterday not based on fundamentals. If the fundamentals truely exist it will come back and then I can give myself the big kick. It was an education non the less.

[desdawg]

PDO dropping a bit more today. Was it all hype? Time will tell. If it was it was quite a manuever. I am surprised it is allowed or if it passes muster more don't use it.

[muldoon]

The DOW fell 359 points yesterday, PDO went down because everything went down.  I wouldn't blame it on stock hype just yet.  The whole board is at an "inflection point".  After the fed hold, rise in oil, "worst june since depression", predictions from royal bank of scotland, jp morgan, and bank of settlements in the last few days about complete collapse in the next 3 months, the equities markets are in a panic.  Add the bankruptcy of the bond insurance companies, the acknowledgement that they no longer have to actually pay any loss claims because that would make them insolvent, and you get extreme panic.  Add a little house bill to curb "speculation" in the oil market and you get alot of money with nowhere safe to go.   You may ask - so we have bad news everyday whats the big deal?  Looking at the slosh report - we see big time draining of liquidity as the loans are coming back in.  http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx   The fed is a bank, they loan money to other banks and that money is returned with interest.  When they drain liquidity they are not rolling over loans effectively taking money out of the pool.  This is the printing press every talks about, except its not printing - its draining and has been since last August.  Theres talk everywhere about inflation - when did you (or anyone you know) get a raise?  What influx of new money is chasing prices up?  I dont see inflation, (inflation is a monetary term and has nothing to do with rising prices).  Prices rising does not equal inflation - if you recall hurricane Katrina/Rita - prices of gas shot up but it wasnt inflation.  If you look every year at Christmas time the prices of the newest video game or toddler toy go through the roof - thats not inflation either.  As I dont see infation, what I see is reduction in quality of life.  Were getting poorer. 

Basically everything paints red to me.  Theres no way to justify the market where it is, much less where it was.  Does anyone think GM is going to do blowout sale next month?  My radio in the truck has been saying its "truck month" since last december.  What about starbucks?  As profits fall, markets decline.  The market is waking up to the idea that profits are going to be dogstuff for quite a while.  They also are waking up to the idea that not only are they not going to make a profit - theres very very few places to even put money for safety.   There are two things that move markets in good times and bad.  Fear and greed.  Dont worry about hype, dont worry about speculation, nor rigged markets, or manipulation.  Its all fear and greed, and once you smell it you can profit.  Right now people are shitting the bed in fear. 

The bond market thing really scares me.  If the insurance companies (MBIA, Ambac) cannot actually insure the bonds, and are rated near C or D debt - then doesn't by law those bonds have to be dumped?  Are we about to see 40 trillion look for an exit at the same time?  What does that look like? 

Been hell at work, not much time to post.

[desdawg]

The Dow hadn't completed it's freefall when I wrote that yesterday. It was a midmorning observation. As far as getting poorer I can say that in my case it seems to be going that direction. The ends that used to meet are becoming further apart. I struggle with every decision I make these days. These are trying times at whatever level we all function at.

[glenn kangiser]

I have never trusted the stock market - seems like a pyramid scheme to me, although many make money at it.  I'm forever doomed to be a lowly working class fool I guess.

[desdawg]

What i like is that it is fairly liquid. You don't have to put an ad in the paper, be available to answer the phone and show what you have to someone if you want to sell. The payment will arrive in your account. No bad checks.

[Sassy]

Well, I have no choice working for the Federal Gov't...  I have to keep my retirement money in the Thrift Plan - which can be diversified any way you want, just about...  for quite awhile now, I've had most of the money in gov't bonds...  that has been steadily rising, has not decreased at all for as long as I can remember...

Glenn says I'm supporting the "war effort" - guess I'm doing that in more ways than one...  I invest in the gov't bonds & also am employed by the gov't taking care of the veterans that come back messed up...     talk about a gov't shill...  lol...  in contrast to all the stuff I post on off-topics...  gee, what a hypocrite I am...   

Ah well, we all have to play the game...  I have lost a few probably about $8-10,000 over the past 3-4 months having some of my $$ in international & another fund...  but I also had made a lot of money before that...  so I guess it all evens out - I just hope that in a couple years when I am at the age I can take it out, there's something left 

[desdawg]

Sassy you will probably be way ahead of the rest of us.

[peternap]

When the market gets like this I don't even look at it. I have no idea what it did but I can guess. muldoon gave you a very good explanation of what's going on. I'll give my take on it from a watcher viewpoint.

Markets always go down when there is turmoil ....on Friday. The daytraders and small investors don't want to take a chance. This is worse during a holiday weekend. This was a double dumper because the 4th is next Friday and a lot of people are taking their vacation all next week.

I don't expect anything to happen much until the 8th or 9th. Doesn't much matter to me because the small amount I'm in for now won't hurt me. Most of it is sitting in a Money Market account earning 5% until this gives me some indication of where it's going.

Now if that Broker goes bust, I might start crying in my beer.

[desdawg]

PDO closed yesterday at $28. Still watching to see where it all settles out. The split shares pay out Monday.

[desdawg]

It dropped another $5.00 today.

[desdawg]

The day after the split and the price is $14.43 per share. Of course the oil price is dropping. Same price at the pump here for the 3rd week in a row. What a concept. The politico's are starting to make noise about this country dropping it's dependency on foreign oil and taking care of ourselves. If that becomes policy the domestic suppliers should get a boost in the market I would think.

[peternap]

A lot of profit taking in oil right now Des. It'll go back up. You might want to pick a sell price and wait for it. It looks like it is selling over value.

[desdawg]

I was curious to see what would have happened if I had waited and gotten and additional quantity of shares (25%) but each share would be worth 38% less than it was when I sold them. I am trying to understand the game and how it is played.

[muldoon]

No one ever went broke taking a profit. 

[desdawg]

Good point. I see the little oil stocks are on the rise again today. And the Dow is giving back yesterdays gain or more.

[muldoon]

yeah, it gave back all of yesterdays and had an ugly close.  We cant seem to get over 11200 with any conviction.  If we slide anymore and lose this ground I think the next leg down goes all the way to 10700 before another inflection point.  That's where the support/resistance line sits anyway. 

were getting close to the point where my financial plan will be "short the phonebook"  ...  last week I thought we were headed back north after that last panic down so don't ask me.  It's getting all chicken-headed out there, people dont know where the hell there going or doing. 

I dont feel too bad about not getting it either after reading this this morning:
Naked Capitalism reports on results of some popular hedge fund managers after the first 6 months. 

I bolded some of the pundits I have been reading in the news..  oops on them. 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/cheer-up-hedge-funds-had-lousy-first.html

Manager...................... 6-months .................... 12-months

Marty Whitman ........... ( - 43.38% ) ..................( - 34.61% )
Mohnish Pabrai ............ (- 41.20% ) ..................( - 36.88% )
Bill Miller .................. ( - 37.05% ) .................. ( - 40.90% )
Joel Greenblatt ............ ( - 37.00% ) .................. ( - 37.00% )
Eddie Lampert ............ ( - 28.95% ) .................. ( -33.94% )
Robert Bruce .............. ( - 25.00% ) ................... ( - 19.16% )
Bruce Sherman ............ ( - 24.68% ) .................. ( - 30.55% )
Charles Brandes ........... ( - 24.58% ) .................. ( - 29.51% )
Robert Rodriguez ......... ( - 22.20% ) .................. ( - 17.75% )
Mark Hillman .............. ( - 21.53% ) .................. ( - 25.40% )
Carl Icahn .................. ( -21.00% ) ................... ( - 3.98%)
Edward Owens ............ ( -20.94% ) ................... ( - 16.74%)
Irving Kahn ................ ( - 20.75% ) ................... ( - 24.68% )
Brian Rodgers ............. ( -20.48% ) .................... ( - 24.68% )
Arnold Schneider ......... ( -20.39% ) .................... ( - 27.25% )
Bill Ackman ............... ( - 19.38% ) ................... ( - 23.06% )
Chris Davis ................ ( - 19.17% ) ................... ( - 19.75%)
Bill Nygren ................ ( - 17.80% ) ................... ( - 27.96% )
Richard Snow ............. ( - 17.68% ) ................... ( - 19.77% )
Hotchkis & Wiley ........ ( - 17.28% ) ................... ( - 25.02% )
Richard Pzena ............ ( - 16.27% ) ................... ( - 25.22% )
David Dreman ............ ( - 15.82% ) .................. ( - 11.87% )
Tweedy Browne .......... ( -14.73% ) ................... ( - 17.23% )
Arnold Van Den Berg ... ( - 14.67% ) .................. ( - 22.32% )
Robert Olstein ............ ( - 14.46% ) .................. ( - 21.05% )
Wally Weitz ............... ( - 14.31% ) .................. ( - 23.00% )
Third Ave. Mgt. .......... ( - 13.84% ) ................... ( - 11.83% )
John Rodgers ............. ( - 13.57% ) ................... ( - 21.47% )
Mason Hawkins .......... ( - 13.51% ) .................. ( - 20.88% )
Dodge and Cox ........... ( - 13.17% ) .................. ( - 15.01% )
Bruce Berkowitz ......... ( - 12.26% ) .................. ( - 3.68% )
David Swensen ........... ( - 12.19% ) .................. ( - 12.23% )
Ron Baron ................. ( - 11.70% ) .................. ( - 12.80% )
Ian Cumming .............. ( - 11.05% ) .................. ( - 11.68% )
David Tepper .............. ( - 10.68% ) .................. ( - 14.87% )
Jean-Marie Eveillard ..... ( - 10.62% ) ................... ( - 7.23% )
NWQ Managers .......... ( - 10.46% ) ................... ( - 13.39% )
Ron Muhlenkamp ........ ( - 9.58% ) ..................... ( - 13.39%)
Glenn Greenberg ......... ( - 9.45% ) ..................... ( - 15.22% )
Michael Price ............. ( - 9.26% ) ..................... ( - 13.87% )
Tom Gayner .............. ( - 9.19% ) ...................... ( - 17.50% )
Richard Aster ............ ( - 6.73% ) ...................... ( - 5.00% )
George Soros ............. ( - 6.56% ) ..................... ( - 9.43% )
Ruanne Cunniff .......... ( - 6.40% ) ..................... ( - 10.61% )
David Einhorn ............ ( - 5.91% ) ..................... + 3.18%
Chuck Akre ............... ( - 4.00% ) ..................... ( - 11.08% )
Warren Buffett ........... ( - 4.00% ) ...................... ( - 3.60% )

[desdawg]

I bailed on a couple of mutual funds again day before yesterday, the up day. I am glad I didn't wait until today. I keep looking through the Vanguard funds and they are mostly all posting red. There is no where to hide except the old cash money market account. The only thing I find that fits my budget is the small oil companies that are posting in the green.