I have heard so many conflicting reports about the direction oil is headed. Some say all the gains will be given back. Some say demand destruction isn't global so the demand will remain. It would make sense to me that with winter coming and home heating season demand will return in a couple of months. It is all pretty confusing as we are not just limited to what occurs in our own economy and our own part of the world. And yet we are effected by all of it.
barring a major war or hurricane...Oil is going to go down considerably...
Iran is sitting on oil... stockpiling like crazy because there is more oil for sale on the market than there are buyers for it. I think that they have 30 million barrels stockpiled ready to sell if there was a buyer.
Saudi Arabia is pumping at less than half of their full capacity...Iraq is pumping less than 30% of their capacity thanks to us blowing their oilfields to smithereens...
Our economy tumbling will slow down other countries growth as well and the whole world will see a slowdown of sorts... Too much oil on the market and a slow economy worldwide ...Oil is destined to drop in a big way.
I say it hits $100 a barrell by labour day... IMHO
The idea that in 3 days oil can come down nearly 20 bucks a barrel on the idea of demand destruction floors me. I don't think macro level changes work so fast - that is a huge move for such a short period of time. Also today is August contract expiration, were seeing some percentage of people selling off contracts so they do not take delivery. More sellers than buyers = price goes down. In past months this mostly rolled into the next month contracts .. I find it curious that as oil slides this week, financials rocket back up. Almost like watching money leave one sector and march into another. I don't know what the price of oil is going to do by labor day or even tomorrow.
Quote from: muldoon on July 22, 2008, 02:19:44 PM
The idea that in 3 days oil can come down nearly 20 bucks a barrel on the idea of demand destruction floors me. I don't think macro level changes work so fast - that is a huge move for such a short period of time. Also today is August contract expiration, were seeing some percentage of people selling off contracts so they do not take delivery. More sellers than buyers = price goes down. In past months this mostly rolled into the next month contracts .. I find it curious that as oil slides this week, financials rocket back up. Almost like watching money leave one sector and march into another. I don't know what the price of oil is going to do by labor day or even tomorrow.
I agree and I especially agree that it's odd that oil is going down and financials up. All that happening during a week when naked shorts that are already illegal, are especially illegal ???
That should have no effect on oil and most of the covering has already happened in Financial s.
The whole thing is ODD and hard to predict.
My guess is that oil will be back up by labor day. >:(
I see that the pump price here has dropped 7 cents here since the last time I filled at my favorite station. I didn't fill today just noticed driving by. The message over the weekend was mixed and I was trying to decide rather or not to sell the oil stocks I have. After PDO paid off I decided I was playing with the houses money so I got more into some more small domestic energy companies.They are all small bets and won't make me as much as I will save at the pump over an extended period. If everyone goes back to driving like they used to demand destruction will be short lived. And all of those vacations that weren't taken this summer will become a reality. Caution will flee for many. Personally I have made very few trips to the mountains this summer. I see this as an opportunity to catch up a little on the work I haven't been getting done there so I plead guilty myself. Plus like I said the winter is coming with it's inherent use of heating fuel nationwide. Oil provides for more than just transportation needs. Although that is where we become most painfully aware of it as it is a constant need as we commute here and there. I think it is a mixed bag and like muldoon says it won't travel in a straight line although it is at the moment. The current direction is down. I really have to get my crystal ball out of the shop. Surely it is tuned up by now. Plugs, points condensor. Nothing worse than a crystal ball with a bad condensor. I should maybe sell now and buy back later at a reduced price or wait for the next spike and sell then. Decisions decisions.
They've already tasted blood. They may let loose of our arm for a bit but I don't see them giving up our leg soon.
It's going to go up and down. But over the long run, my money is on up.
Quote from: benevolance Saudi Arabia is pumping at less than half of their full capacity...
That depends on what you mean by "capacity". If you mean the maximum they can pump out of the ground with existing infrastructure, you are incorrect. Saudi capacity is currently 11.3 million bpd (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7652575), and in July they have been pumping at 9.7 million bpd, or about 86% of capacity. They will be expanding capacity to 12.5 bpd by June of 2009 and claim they will pump at that capacity for a short period before dropping back to 10.4 million bpd. They have a long standing policy of keeping 1.5-2.0 million bpd of idle capacity.
well one of the reasons I believe oil will come down is that they have stuck it to the consumer for a while now and the market has beared all it could handle of the high prices that were completely unecessary ... Price has been driven to all time highs due to nothing but speculation on the market... all of which has nothing to do with actual supply or actual demand. Investors fund managers etc.. driving the price sky high....and while the oil companies are making record profits they are buying all their company shares back driving the cost of the shares through the roof.
In a way this was almost an artificial high... no not like buying bad weed and pretending it is choice... this is a price spike that had nothing to do with demand, usage or supply. Now that the entire world is in recession Demand is way down... the money to pay for oil is way down... People all over the world are starting to polarize in the idea that we need to use something else other than oil..
the natural reaction for this is of course lowering the price back to a semi normal level and allow the people to return to their oil consuming lives so that they can make record profits again once the world resumes being comfortably addicted to oil.
When oil goes below $100 a barrel... and gasoline is at $250 a gallon all will seem right with the world again for most americans...Then slowly we can dig ourselves out of this recession and get prepared to go through this circus all over again in the near future
I don't think we'll ever see $2.50 a gallon gas again. It may go down to $3.25 if we are real lucky.
Scott
Gas is already pushing towards $3.50 a gallon here...it is low $3.60's
Once oil drops below $100 a barrel I expect to see it well below $3.00 a gallon
The cheapest gas in the county here is 4.33/gal. Most of it is still 4.65 or so
sad, but true. i hope everyone will be mad enough about this oil scam to keep looking for alternatives even if the price stays down. but i won't holld my breath.
$4.03 in the Mountain State. But deisel is still in the clouds at $4.79 Ouch! :(
Diesel is still $4.50 a gallon here... It is ridiculous
I passed 3.81 for regular unleaded this morning, and with rboc falling I think it will keep going south for at least a few more days.
Today, the senate and congress will vote on H.R. 3221, known as the housing bill. This will raise the federal debt ceiling some 800 billion and give Paulson the blank check he asked for to bail out banks and gse's. It looks like it's a slam dunk with no chance of not being passed. With taxpayers on the hook for any losses, these banks look like a good place for money to flow into .. no need to stay in commodities for safety as the us taxpayer is about as safe as one can get in my opinion.
Here is the FNM/FRE bailout part, http://www.rules.house.gov/110/text/110_atostohto3221.pdf
Commodities are getting crushed, http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
oil, gold, wheat, cotton, soy, nearly everything. This takes the risk of a fast "crash" out of the picture for me and replaces it with a long depression. Looking at the TNX this week I see the price of long debt going up. This time next year, mortgages may likely be 10%... what will that do to the housing market?
We have unusually high gas prices here where I am at. They are holding above $4.00. I just checked Tucson & Phoenix which are more in line with what you are seeing. In the $3.80-$3.90 range. After about 3 month's I have finally received a counteroffer to a bid I put in on a duplex, (short sale). I guess I better get my mortgage application in pretty quick given this turn of events. The price on the duplex is good. The default mortgage was 120K and the counter was at 63K. This was an IndyMac mortgage originally.
Stock prices dipped and I was down then they came back up about 10% from where they had dipped to. Confusing for an easily confused country boy.
Well thankfully the proce keeps dropping on oil...It hit $122 today in trading... Slowly it keeps inching down
Like to see it below $100 a barrel by labour day
filled my 36.5 gallon gas tank yesterday@ $3.77 a gal. only cost me $118.00(it wasn't empty). saw gas for $3.74 later. now if i could just figure out a way to make my pension payment increase. :-\
Wait until next week and see what it does. That should be a better indicator of what it will do. This week was influenced.
Well prices at the pump have not come down really much at all considering that oil has dropped $25 a barrel in the last 2 weeks.
If the price of oil does not go up...We will start to see even better prices at the pumps..I expect gasdoline to go down 5-10 cents a gallon at the pumps this week if oil stays around $120 a barrel
Regular unleaded is $3.84 here today. That's down from $3.87 last weekend.
Scott
That really is an insult considering that the price of oil has come down $25 a barrell which is what a 16-17% drop in the price of crude...I just hope that as we see a continued drop in the price of crude and gasoline worldwide we will see the benefits at the pumps here... I am expecting noticeable drops in gasoline in the next 2 weeks...
It would be nice if we saw a 20% reduction in the price of gasoline...From $4.00 a gallon into the $3.25 range...We have cheap gas here in Rural South Carolina (columbia is gross but rural areas are okay) I expect gas to be under $3.60 a gallon in the next day or two...I am holding out hope for $3.50 a gallon in a couple weeks when I have to make another trip to Canada towing vehicles up north.
Don't expect miracles. Big oil is in control of our government. What do they have to worry about? A sham investigation? Yeah - sure -- I will go out and check into what my left hand is doing.
Well We filled up tonight for $3.57/9 a gallon in the Saturn wagon...I am hoping for another 10 cent decrease in the next week [cool]
I was giving this some thought earlier. These crude oil prices we are seeing on the news are for futures. That is to say for oil to be delivered at some later date. The gas we buy today was made from oil purchaced at an earlier date. So if oil just went down why would we expect gas to go down at the exact same time and rate? The fact that it is going down now leads me to belive that these price moves have been preplanned. If not preplanned are they simply trying to prevent a future surplus by dropping prices ahead of the futures prices? Make any sense?
Another thing I'm wondering is how much of the total volume of oil sold is sold on futures contracts? I would think that major refineries would have purchaced oil contracts months or years in advance and would be unlikely to be trading those contracts on the open markets just weeks before expected delivery. I could be wrong but this seems like recipe for disaster.
The democrats in the house attempted to pass legislation to release some of the strategic reserve into the market place. The republicans blocked the measure. What I heard was that a 1% increase in available oil would drop the price at the pump 10%. If I heard it right. The dem's were arguing consumer relief and that the taxpayers had already paid for that oil once. The repub's were arguing that this wasn't a good enough reason to get into the strategic reserve. This is one of the few times I actually agreed with the democrats. The oil that would be made available would be sweet crude and it would be replaed later with a heavier crude of lesser quality.
It is so funny to me that we spend all this time effort and money stockpiling oil in the strategic reserve...Why not take that time energy and money and put it into ways to lessen the amount of oil we consume, so as to lessen our dependency on foreign oil.
We have just about all the tech we need... BioDiesel from Seawater Algae is much better alternative than ethanol...It would be very easy and profitable for us to make all of our diesel from Sea water algae...
If we consumed 25% less oil there would be a dramatic drop in the demand worldwide and that would create relief in the price of crude and gas at the pump that we so desperately need.
The powers that be do not want affordable energy or energy that does not come from Coal or Oil :-\
I would hope that would be what comes out of all this period of high prices would be a shift in that direction. And I think it will eventually.
Well this country and the world needs to stop using prime farmland that was used for growing corn and soybean as food and making ethanol...
Considering that most of the low lying desertland in the world is in close proximity to oceans... we can easily produce all the biodiesel the world could ever need... Replacing this retarded ethanol push. It is cheaper to make Sea Algae bio diesel than it is to make contemporary diesel. Cheaper cleaner pollution free fuel..That does not use farmland.
Here you go.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080727/bs_nm/energy_gasoline_retail_dc_1
It is a good start...But really we need to see another 20% drop in the price of crude before things can start getting back to normal...
Getting gasoline below $3.00 a gallon for an extended period of time will allow consumers to spending more money into the local economy. Retail sales might rebound a little...And the housing market has shown some signs of life on lower end homes and the purchasing of foreclosures...More people might be willing to buy a house if they were not spending so much of their paycheck on heating oil or gasoline.
The drop in crude is coming just in time for the northeast...Fall is fastly approaching and they need a serious drop in the price of natural gas and home heating oil. Heating oil that costs $5.-- a gallon would have disasterous effects on the economy in the northeast.
I think natural gas is going up.
Probably because there is a huge push across america for natural gas powered vehicles...
They did the same thing to diesel... it was half the cost of gasoline for years so was propane...And now it cost more! All to encourage us to keep using inefficient gasoline to power our automobiles...
nevermind that there is 20% more energy in Natural gas compared to Gasoline for the same amount of fuel. So making new cars specifically to burn natural gas we as consumers would get 20% more mileage...And currently natural gas is half the price of gasoline....So we could fill up for half the money and drive 20% further
Mr Oil does not want any of this to see the light of day
Rough conversions don't seem to show that much power in NG or propane I don't think.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/science/energy_calculator.html
I expect all energy to go up or down with the price of oil in the long run. Doesn't matter what form it takes. Gas is down to $3.60 here now.
Just filled up yesterday - $4.11 for regular - cheapest I've seen in the valley... California seems to be way more expensive than other places... >:(
I hit it at $3.79 in Chino valley yesterday. Then I got back to the Phoenix area and it was $3.85. It's a BS deal and the local guys don't want to take any of the rap. Blame it on big oil.
Propane develops less HP than gasoline. I never really noticed it when driving propane powered vehicles but I don't have a lead foot.
One thing about propane is that engines can have much higher compression without detination or sprak knock...
Same thing applies for natural gas... We are burning a better fuel in an engine set up for inferior gasoline.. that is half the problem
A Engine designed for propane or natural gas with high compression pistons will deliver more power and better fuel efficiency... the higher the compression the more work done for each cycle of the engines pistons.
High efficiency diesel engines in cars europe have compression ratios in the 18-20:1 range...Which is why they are so much better on fuel twice the compression means twice the work done... in layman's terms
I paid 3.64 today at the exxon by work. So it's coming down as RBOC futures market said it would.
As for long term, man know knows? I can see the case for a 70 barrel and I can see the case for 300. I know not which path we take.
A 70 per barrel would mean we hit deflation on a global level, and the amount of money and thus consumption globally takes a nose dive. As consumption delines supply and demand says prices plummet. A 300 barrel means the US inflates/hyperinflates and our money doesnt go as far in comparison to the rest of the world who merely pick up the slack in anything we elect not to consume. If we keep seeing congress bailouts this is likely.
Neither are pretty in the global economy. A deflationary 50-70 dollar barrel will kill oil companies. some may smile on that, however myself being employed by one I would prefer not. It also would go along way to kill nationalized oil nations like Saudi, UAE, USSR, Venezuela, Iran... they in turn (especially Saudi) would have a high likely hood of not buying continuing US debt. The 300 barrel indicates a declining US dollar, where the rest of world continues paying roughly the same in their currency while it gets more expensive for us. This has far reaching repercussions on the global economy as well....
See, think of it like this. there are five guys on a deserted island. specifically there are 4 chinese guys and one American. Heres the breakdown. One Chinese guy says, I will fish. Another says I will grow food, another says I will gather and filter water, another says I will hunt providing fresh meat. The american says I will eat.
From an economics perspective the American has the most important job. If he did not consume, the other 4 would be out of a job. However, if the American was not in the picture the Chinese might need to work less and enjoy the fruits of their labor more. ...
So, what will they do here? Thats what decides where oil is headed I believe.
It's rather ironic that the future of democratic America lies in the hands of red china continuing to pay our bills. >:(
I'm still going with my prediction that it will be up. Eventually, it will settle between now and then, but not for a while.
I am convinced that the futures market we are seeing now, is being allowed to settle.
The entire market is still drunk although, I am seeing faint signs of some leveling out. I bought astock inb a makeup company today that has tumbled on the flimsiest reasons. Earnings were very good, management is good. They have some long term debt that comes due in 2012 but is well within the ability of the company to repay. It was just shorted down.
I expect an immediate bounce. The Financial s I bought have already produced thousands of dollars of profit, which I happily took today. No reason for them to bounce. They were just NOT shorted.
I keep hearing more and more about natural gas as a motor fuel. I started buying back some of the domestic energy stocks I had when the dip began towards the end of July. The prices are coming down to below where I sold them. So I am betting it will go back up when the winter heating season begins for the majority of this country. JMO but I am betting on it. If Boon Pickens plan is implemented he called for using the NG that was is being used to generate electricity as motor fuel through the transition to alternative (wind) energy. If everyone starts competing for the NG resources that are available there will be a big push to get more out of the ground and that will push the price higher. So I am looking at domestic companies that produce both NG and oil. If NG becomes a viable motor fuel that should relieve some demand for oil and lower the gasoline price at the pump I would think. It's a mixed bag but I am looking at the stock prices.
I think there is to much infrastructure change and expensive modifications for NG to become a viable vehicle fuel option in the near future. Just my opinion. Major agencies like cities - gov agencies maybe where money is not an option. Maybe that is enough
You could be right Glenn. Boone Pickens had addressed that in his presentation. I don't remember what price tag he put on it. I am hearing that in some South American countries NG is being used extensively for a motor fuel. The biggest problem is that it is not a liquid and has to be compressed into the fuel tank. That takes time so a fill up could take a while. It would be best suited for fleet situations where the night crew could see to it IMO. Tanks could be filling all day and be switched out at night. And I am hearing about it starting with government fleet situations. I don't think it would be an inexpensive proposition.
It takes a little longer to fill up a NG car
There are commercial filling stations open to the public in the northeast...And you take your bi fuel car in and they fill it up...Takes 15 minutes or so.... Not that big a deal
Considering that most people do not burn more than one tank of fuel a week most people can fill up on the week-end or one night after supper...No big deal.
Propane filling is quick and easy...Does not really take much longer than gasoline... low pressure for propane the fuel is not liquified which is why it is so quick and easy
honda civic has/had a NG car and you could buy a filling station to have in your garage($2,000 i think for the station) and fill overnight. shorter range but equivalent to about 1/2 the cost of gas.
jack roush(the race car owner) has a propane conversion for rhe F150 p.u. truck for $10,000. i forget how much you save on propane not counting conversion. his building is in my general area so i always pay attention to news about him. he, big at ford mo. co. and i drive an F150.
Propane pumps as a liquid and burns as a vapor. Out here in the country I don't have natural gas available. Electricity would be an option if it could handle the loads I carry. For any kind of heavy hauling I think we will be using fossil fuels for some time. Propane would work but I don't think it will replace diesel fuel.
Can remember in the early 70's that my uncle in MS converted his delivery vehicles to propane. Drove them forever until he shut his buisness down. Wasn't much on long trips as the availability of stations to fill up on the way was uncertain. Here all the propane delivery trucks use their own product to run. By the way propane now here is $2.90 delivered. Suppose to be a $.10 discount for summer fills. Still high. Hope mine will not need that much. On average it has ben runing 115-140 gallons a winter. 500 gallon tank indicates that it is somewher between 50-60% so if they only fill to 80%-90% (normal) then I don't think it will be too bad.
Supposed to only fill to 80% of liquid capacity. The remaining 20% allows room for vaporization to occur. Propane will vaporize at any temperature above -44 F. The little spitter valve that gets opened when filling releases liquid when the tank is filled to 80%.
And so it begins. Synthetic diesel and jet fuel with a NG base.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080806/rentech_synthetic_fuel.html?.v=2
Today the dollar is getting stronger and oil prices are declining.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/08/markets/oil/index.htm
Give it time Des. Oil is going down mostly because investors are changing over for the time being. The dollar isn't going up because of a stronger economy. It;s going up because things are slipping overseas.
I still expect oil to fo back up and settle somewhere in the middle.
So the way I see it, If we can wipe out the economy of the entire world, then we should be in good shape.
Wow- these politicians and manipulators are way ahead of me. d*
holy crap, once we crossed 74.4 on the DX (yesterdays 200 day moving average) with upward direction we broke out huge. It has not closed above the 200 day moving average since March 2006, this was a big signal. Today were up 1.33 to nearly 76 again, huge rally in the dollar. good morning trichet, you still gonna raise? I think it's becoming clear that the US is the proverbial eater on the deserted island. If we go south, everyone else goes down just as hard. We are also positioned well with the cuts last year while everyone else raised to fight inflation. Now that Euro and Asia are sitting at high rates and were low we can hold while they must cut to stir their own economy. Those cuts will slow their own economies, but leaving them high strangles any growth over there. That combination continues to raise USD as those FRNs get repatriated back here. Those looking for the US$ to crash should take a good look at the charts. The dollar already has crashed. More could be in store of course, but much of the recent strength in the Euro can be attributed to Bernanke's willingness to cut and Trichet's willingness to hike. Thats not the case going forward.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=&sid=a71O39Xm_tjw
I still don't really like equities but I damn sure wouldn't be sitting in commodities now.
.. peter, this is a strong trend break. Consider the possibilities here.
(http://www.loopy.org/us-dollar-rally.png)
Quote from: muldoon on August 08, 2008, 09:55:21 AM
holy crap, once we crossed 74.4 on the DX (yesterdays 200 day moving average) with upward direction we broke out huge. It has not closed above the 200 day moving average since March 2006, this was a big signal. Today were up 1.33 to nearly 76 again, huge rally in the dollar. good morning trichet, you still gonna raise? I think it's becoming clear that the US is the proverbial eater on the deserted island. If we go south, everyone else goes down just as hard. We are also positioned well with the cuts last year while everyone else raised to fight inflation. Now that Euro and Asia are sitting at high rates and were low we can hold while they must cut to stir their own economy. Those cuts will slow their own economies, but leaving them high strangles any growth over there. That combination continues to raise USD as those FRNs get repatriated back here. Those looking for the US$ to crash should take a good look at the charts. The dollar already has crashed. More could be in store of course, but much of the recent strength in the Euro can be attributed to Bernanke's willingness to cut and Trichet's willingness to hike. Thats not the case going forward.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=&sid=a71O39Xm_tjw
I still don't really like equities but I damn sure wouldn't be sitting in commodities now.
.. peter, this is a strong trend break. Consider the possibilities here.
(http://www.loopy.org/us-dollar-rally.png)
I know muldoon....boy do I know. There has been a TREMENDOUS amount of data thrown at me this week. (Now you know why I took a nap yesterday morning ;D)
I have formed some definite opinions that change hourly....so I am proceeding with reckless caution ::)
The one thing I am sure of though is that big things are brewing!
I once again dumped the oil stocks I had been buying back. The message is painfully clear that I can't anticipate and get out in front of something. I just need to wait until the 11th hour and scramble like everyone else or stay out. Staying out is seeming safer at the moment. Maybe I should just invest with Martha Stewart. Her stock is going up. The american dollar will now buy more curtains and doilies.
I heard Martha Stewart was supposed to go broke. I was crying for her. Who mis-informed me?
Des, this market is VERY hard to play and has been for a while now. Anyone that ever said they could predict stocks with certainty, was joking or fibbing. That's especially true now.
Wild swings are just that. Wild swings and don't reflect fundamentals. We can guess at some stocks with some accuracy....but again, it's an educated guess.
I have a couple that are stuck in a rut. Every morning they take a dead cat bounce and then go down during the lunch dump, and keep going till close. I've been daytrading them and making a few hundred a day on them. One morning, they'll fool me.
Study fundamentals and if we ever get a real market back, you'll be ready to invest. Remember, there's a lot of difference between an investor and a trader. Trading is risky and done long enough, you'll get burned.
Martha Stewart is supposed to have her goods in Wal-Mart soon. There was an attempt at a website for wedding registry that isn't working out. It was called the knot instead of the noose. It might have worked better if had been called what it was.
Peter I am not educated enough to make good educated guesses apparently. I need to develop a mood swing personality so I can run with the herd. I need to ricochet with press releases. You are probably on the right track thinking in real short periods of time, measured in hours. I never tried to work that way. It is just not my nature.
My DW saw them in Wally World the other day. Thought they were only in KMart.
Remember Des, daytrading is dangerous and I never met a fulltime daytrader that made any money.
You can watch trends though. I have a long list of stocks I've researched and watch. Since I'm going to tell you to stay away from it for now, I can tell you that it's one I've been daytrading because of the trend. Every morning, it goes up and I sell what I have (usually 2000 shares). This morning I sold when it was up 0.07.
Every evening before close, I buy back. Now, Monday is earnings for ASTI so don't try it with them now. Since they are still in the early stages of production, earnings themselves are a non-event, however, management is very tight mouthed about what's happening and the key to the PPS will be if the give any good news.
The stock could skyrocket (for a short time), drop although I doubt much lower than it is, or stay the same. A lot of investors will dump long held shares if there is no news.
Freddie Mac is tempting but I think it has more downward room to go.
What I'm saying is just watch what's going on and then try to figure out why. Look at the data muldoon puts on here. It's just research, granted, good research, but still nothing you can't pick up on with a little practice.
There is a website GasBuddy.com where you can go and find the best prices in your neighborhood for gas. I use it to compare all the time. The prices are posted by site users not the stations themselves. For instance I know by looking that if I drive to the place up north I can save at least 2 cents a gallon by filling up at the Safeway store in Chino Valley, AZ rather than filling here before I leave. I usually top off my tank there anyway so if I am going to take some 5 gallon cans along I will fill them there rather than here. Why it cost less when the fuel has to be transported out of Phoenix I imagine than it cost here closer in I can't imagine. Greed. The safeway store here locally is usually 4 cents a gallon more than it is there. My one ton holds a fair amount of fuel + the cans so it saves a few bucks to that have that information. And I hate supporting greed any more than is necessary. I just wondered if anyone else had found and used the site. It appears to cover every state and province. So you can find the national average price and compare between states if you want. If I fill along I-40 it usually costs 50-60 cents a gallon more as those stations busily rip the tourists and travelers. And yet here locally the best prices are usually found right along I-10. Go figure.
I find the best prices are when 2 interstates intersect... When I make trips back home to take cars...I find the best gas price is where interstate 81 meets interstate 77 near Wytheville Virginia...best prices for 100 miles in any direction that I have ever seen..... Huge truck stops right there between the two interstates.
Good point Peter. The are along I-10 where I see the best prices is where it intersects with I-8. All are within a mile or two of that intersection. I never would have made the connection if you hadn't mentioned it.
you have to be careful on the interstate though... many times within sight of the interstate a gas station will put the price up 10-20 cents a gallon...All the locals in that area drive a mile to the other side of town for the better deal.
I make a note of where I buy gas on my trips to Maine...try to stop where I know the prices are good....and to avoid the stations that gouge
That is what is good about the website. You can look at what the different stations are charging before you travel. I think it is a great idea. And you are not supporting the price gougers.
i agree 100%
we keep a journal of sorts of where we stopped and the mileage marker... and we compare prices and adjust our favorite stopping spots accordingly if we see gouging...I do not always take the cheapest gas... driving one truck loaded with parts and towing another loaded down on a tow bar...Ease on and off the interstate is a big issue for me....I will gladly pay a little more and be thankful to get it if the station is right beside the interstate at the end of the off ramp and right beside the on ramp to get back on...I will not exit onto an expressway that is 4 lanes with no way to get turned around... take that into a town then have to make 3 or 4 turns in parking lots which is hell with the tow bar if there is not plenty of room.... Just to save 5 dollars on a fill up.
I hunt the best prices more when we are in the car not towing though d*
That is what seems so strange to me. The best prices are next to the freeway here. The gougers are at the other end of town. I guess they think they have their neighborhood locked in.
Gas with 10% ethanol is down to $3.49 here today. For ethanol free gas it's $3.64.
I filled up my 90 dodge pick up at $3.42... there is a station that usually is a few cents cheaper but it is on the other side of town... so $3.42 it is! d*
I have been looking for months now to find a station here that does not blend in Ethanol....I have not found one.
Last week in Maine they are still using MTBE instead of Ethanol in some stations...I thought that stuff was illegal...I was sort of half stunned when I saw it in Portland last week ???
Seems that the price per barrel has no effect here in Alaska. $4.41/gallon regular unleaded, down a mere .10 cents a gallon. >:( Diesel still up and over $5.00/gallon. BOHICA.
Quote from: ScottA on August 11, 2008, 01:28:21 PM
Gas with 10% ethanol is down to $3.49 here today. For ethanol free gas it's $3.64.
It costs a lot to not blend it in, huh Scott?
I guess so. This is new. I never saw signs for ethanol free gas before the last few weeks. Lots of beef ranchers around here who hate what ethanol is doing to feed prices. Also people saying that it can hurt your engine.
hi m.d.,
sorry but what does BOHICA mean? i am sure everyone else knows but...
Quote from: apaknad on August 11, 2008, 10:34:20 PM
hi m.d.,
sorry but what does BOHICA mean? i am sure everyone else knows but...
Bend Over, Here It Comes Again d*
Quote from: ScottA on August 11, 2008, 10:04:46 PM
I guess so. This is new. I never saw signs for ethanol free gas before the last few weeks. Lots of beef ranchers around here who hate what ethanol is doing to feed prices. Also people saying that it can hurt your engine.
Peternap had a thread here a while back about how it was eating up the diaphrams, etc in his small engine carb's (chainsaws, etc.)
bohica... awesome...
I always liked snafu... bohica might be my new favorite
I would echo peternaps comments about the dangers of trying to daytrade this tape. It's not a good idea at all. There are moves that defy logic, reek of manipulation. Betting the wrong way can get you crushed, after you get stopped out it moves exactly how you thought. There's a few explanations for our current rally; but most feel it is related to falling oil, which is directly tied to strengthening dollar of the past 3 weeks. Problem is, the dollar gaining strength doesn't make alot of sense in context. James Turk had an article out on this, http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current he lays out some clear logic for the case of manipulation. If you buy the story, these recent gains will be given back in short time. Until some other form of propping can be worked out.
From my programming days, I would just comment in
/* caution, there be dragons here */
Were not in a free market.
I think you nailed it, muldoon. Manipulation agrees with all the stufff I read....but then -- no one else does. d*
Yeah the suddenly everything is wonderful theory isn't even logical. Housing prices in the Phoenix area reportedly have another 13% to decline that decline lasting until Q4 2009 when prices will be roughly 60% of peak bubble pricing. I went out looking yesterday for a rental or two to add to my inventory and found a couple that are pretty interesting. Now I can afford to drive around and look. I also found a lot of garbage. One is a real money pit and is priced at $17,900. Almost everything is in need of repair. It is owned by Wells Fargo. I may offer 10K cash since I have a lot of material that will work there but it is a fair distance from home and I don't want to be pressured to commute to work on it. So if it sits for a while it won't hurt me. I don't trust gas prices to stay down come Fall when the home heating season starts.
The other one I found is a pretty good looking property owned by Citibanks mortgage division. It is priced at $38,900 so I may offer $35K contingent upon getting a new mortgage. I don't know if I can get a new investment mortgage in todays world. If the regulations allowed for Citi to write new paper on their asset they could get a better price and it would probably already be sold. Some of the big losses could be minimized if the rules were different a the rules themselves cause a lot of the downside. B of A wants $200 just to apply for a mortgage. There are very few mortgage brokers aound these days. They used to be as common as Realtors. It has almost thinned out to being just the major banks speaking of manipulation.
Well in all fairness... Some areas had more of a bubble to burst than others when it comes to the real estate market.
Phoenix Southern California, Florida, NYC, Myrtle Beach...Those places were setting themselves up for a catastrauphic fall because they experienced growth rates and price increases that defied all banking logic for decades.
So the bubble has burst some of the banks got themselves in trouble and ran out of money...There have been foreclosures, new home construction has stopped in some areas...Prices are down pretty much across the board.
But you know what people still need a place to live and work and all of that so houses are going to sell. They built way more houses than the market could bear in some of these boom areas...All the builders wanted to get every last cent of money out of these markets...They were building more houses than people were arriving... they were ignoring commonly used business practices and telling themselves the good times would never end.
In places like Phoenix it may take another year or so of slowed new home construction and prices dropping before consumer demand levels out with the number of available houses and at that time you will have recovery..
IT is the same in South Florida where they tried to develop the whole state into sub divisions
Back to gas and oil.
The thing that hasn't been discussed in this thread (I don't think) is Georgia. This has been completly ignord in the market...why...no one is sure. Ask ten experts and get twenty opinions. Some say demand isn't as great as thought.
I've read everything I can find and the most reasonable experts say that it will have an impact. I have a theory as to it not impacting the market yet, but I'll keep it to myself for now. I have been hinting at it for a couple weeks though.
It is not hard to get off topic when discussing gas and oil since nearly everything else is tied to it. Along with a reduction in gas prices is a reduction in food prices as an example. I just filled up at $3.69 my lowest price in ages. I have gotten back to running on the top half of the tank instead of the bottom. Whoever would have guessed $3.69 would seem like a bargain. I hope it keeps dropping down. I heard earlier today on the radio that a pipeline was shut down in Georgia although it hadn't been damaged. Just a precaution. I heard it periferally and didn't hear whose it was. I drove into Chandler this morning and picked up a firebox for the fireplace on my soon to be enclosed patio and the radio was on but I wasn't really focused on it. So it kind of slipped by. I have spent the last couple of days getting in touch with what is going on locally so I haven't paid much attention to what the Russians are doing although I hear about it once again on the periphery. I don't even care if John Edwards cheated on his wife.
A blurb that mentions Georgia and oil Peter: http://www.thestreet.com/s/all-you-need-to-know-about-oil/university/energy-education-series/10423147.html?puc=_tscrss
Well Russia agreed to the cease fire so calm is restored... Personally I think this was a test... Georgia is allied to the USA... So they get bold and invade the territories that want to be part of Russia...A literal attack...People are killed the landside is blown up it is a real war with tanks and planes and guns...
Russia comes in and liberates the areas... and the Sh*t hits the fan when they kept fighting the army after those 2 areas were liberated. Why should they just stop fighting them...Why not eradicate them so they will not go back and attack those 2 enclaves again and again.
But today russia stopped the assault.
I nearly choked last night seeing Bush's address on TV where he said they used a brutal and disproportionate use of force...
that was too much for me to keep inside I was in a restaurant eating supper and I saw that and I yelled out bullsh*t
America has killed over 1 million Iraqis destroyed their country because 19 people from Saudi Arabia attacked 2 buildings in America with a civilian plane. We invading Iraq was a disproportionate use of brutal force...Anyone else remember shock and awe and the 5 days to bagdad?
Yet when Georgia attacks and Russia responds they are brutal and evil...
The propaganda machine is hard at work in this country
No sh*t, Peter. I fully agree. Mr Pot calling the kettle black.
I think it was really a test...A Test to see how organized the Russian army is...Could they strike quickly and defeat a small well armed force easily. They wanted to see what kind of weaponry they were using...
The small country of Georgia gets to be the pawn in all of this and be the neo cons guinea pig