Peak Oil - energy concerns & options

[glenn kangiser]

I think you're right Kathleen.  Maybe it will hold together for a while - maybe it won't but one thing that is for sure -those who have learned the skills of self sufficiency will be much better prepared to take care of themselves.  The city people will be totally unprepared and you can bet they'll be headed to country cousins if possible.

With only a 3 day supply of food in most stores, all it will take is a hiccup in the system for things to start coming unglued.  Fuel, farming or transportation - take your pick- one broken link is all it takes.  We better learn to take care of ourselves, by ourselves. :-/

[jraabe]

Here's an interesting book on making alcohol fuel adjustments. Has anyone worked with this?

Does cars running on corn really make sense?

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0915216434/countryplanscom/002-4122960-5926408

Maybe using the corn to make hydrogen through a fuel cell is a better option:

http://www.newstarget.com/000937.html

[Amanda_931]

I don't know how much sense it makes to run cars on ethanol, i.e., to raise huge crops of corn (sugar cane in Brazil, IIRC, soy for diesel fuel) to fuel our current lifestyle.

But it can be done.   At least until oil gets so precious that the other things that get to come from oil price the whole idea of large personal transportation out of the market--or it takes sooo much acreage to raise fuel that we are we are unable to feed ourselves.  It would probably be a better idea to start thinking about alternatives to large personal transportation--says the person who drove 60 miles each way this morning to deliver some tomato plants that I'd forgotten to take up on Friday.

   oops!
I've just started a book, The Long Emergency by James Howward Kunstler, about what happens after peak oil.  Thirty pages in, it's really interesting.  I did enjoy his (historical) take on suburbia, The Geography of Nowhere.

His idea is that a lot more than just our transportation patterns are due to cheap oil.

Back in the 80's Judith Moffett was writing a series of short stories for Asimov's Science Fiction in which the aliens come, wonder why we are ruining this perfectly nice little planet.  After a nuclear power meltdown that kills lots of people, they give us an ultimatum--think Local, solar, no petroleum driven lmuch of anything.  They were collected in a book--I don't remember that the stories contained the details of the ultimatum, the book did--Ragged World--which I occasionally go back and read.

[jraabe]

Thanks for the lead Amanda; here is a recent article by James Kunstler in Rolling Stone. I expect it summarizes the topic and perhaps the book.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm

This is a good concise overview of the issues and potential "solutions" :-/

Here is another 21st century "solution":

[Amanda_931]

Gee, when I worked in a truck factory, we always wished there was a better way to move cabs around the plant.

Now I know!

[Amanda_931]

Thanks!

Same Kuntzler, same title as the book.

Easier for me to send to people this way, though.

[jraabe]

I finally finished the article myself. Not very optimistic is it?  

While probably not nearly as cataclysmic as Kunstler suggests, the changes most Americans will undergo are also much larger than most of them expect.

We are talking something more than just having to pay a few bucks more to fill up the Lincoln Navigator.

There is already an association! This from the ASPO:
http://www.peakoil.net/

[jonseyhay]

Interesting thread
A couple of years ago on a trip home to NZ, I noticed that one of the major Methanol producers was dismantling its plant. This was quite a wakeup call for me, so I started doing a little research.

Taranaki, my home province, is the center of New Zealand's oil, gas and petrochemical industry and therefore of major strategic importance to the country's economy.  Gas, mostly from the Maui and Kapuni fields, is piped to the 80-hectare methanol complex at Motunui, where it is converted into about 2 million tonnes of distilled methanol. A further 520,000 tonnes of export-grade product was manufactured at their smaller Waitara Valley plant. It seems that these fields are now running dry.
The gas from these fields is also used for several electricity generation plants in NZ. These to are on the way out. Recent newspaper reports suggest that there is about three year's supply left to be tapped. Although, if you look at oil company literature it's saying something completely different.

There have been some recent small discoveries in Taranaki- the onshore Kahili gas and Surrey oil fields are said to be complimenting the more major developments of the offshore Tui and Maari oil fields, and the Pohokura gas field.
The Pohokura one was interesting in that, after spending around 9 million on a new plant, they turned on the taps and there was no gas. Not sure if they have figured that one out yet.
If you look at oil company activity you will notice that the major companies are merging, or buying each other out, they're not spending money exploring, it's not good business to put money into dry holes. Smaller outfits take on most of this exploration.

An interesting sidelight of this exploration is that it seems to be driving the housing market in Taranaki. If you take a close look though, this oil and gas activity is quite small and should not be having that much effect. On closer inspection of local newspaper articles, you notice that they are mostly reported by real-estate agents. Speculators drive most of this activity.

A recent article I penned for the local paper, on the benefits of bike riding also pointed out the peak oil issue. It would seem, judging by the feed back that most folk don't give a toss about how much oil they waste. They don't mind whinnying about the price but change their lifestyles, not a chance. They'd die first.  
jonesy

[jraabe]

Thanks for the down under perspective, jonesy.

This is most definitely a global issue. And ostriches all around the planet are more than willing to stick their heads in the sand.

There are lots of examples of human (and animal) societies that ate their seed corn rather than make even simple lifestyle changes — Easter island, the Vikings starving on Greenland because they wouldn't eat fish or learn from the Inuit.

[glenn kangiser]

Is this part of what we're waiting for

http://komotv.com/stories/38525.htm

Anyone start planting a winter garden yet-  I don't think a Bandaid will fix this and since our government is run by oil/corporate interest's don't look for much price relief in the near future-- my opinoin - which my wife tells me I think everyone is entitled to.

[glenn kangiser]

Here is what I was referring to above - a quote from that famous person--

I think you're right Kathleen.  Maybe it will hold together for a while - maybe it won't but one thing that is for sure -those who have learned the skills of self sufficiency will be much better prepared to take care of themselves.  The city people will be totally unprepared and you can bet they'll be headed to country cousins if possible.

With only a 3 day supply of food in most stores, all it will take is a hiccup in the system for things to start coming unglued.  Fuel, farming or transportation - take your pick- one broken link is all it takes.  We better learn to take care of ourselves, by ourselves. :-/

[PEG688]

[quote author=glenn kangiser

Anyone start planting a winter garden yet-

    Yes we did , just this AM . re-tilled yesterday . And  Jonniece ( Grandaughter from Chi. )&  I did just that . Planted spinach , lettuce , radishs .  Took some pics with the new digital camera , in hopes ,#1 We don't get frosted out . #2 I can email pics to her when it grows . # 3 Some day I'll figure out how to post    Learning curve   HTBH  ;)PEG

[glenn kangiser]

Don't forget that a hoop greenhouse is very easy to build and relatively cheap -- rebar stakes in the ground  12 feet apart -18' to 20 '  pvc - hoops - poly over the top - or double poly and a small blower piped in between poly layers  to make a slightly insulated more wind resistant one.

http://www.westsidegardener.com/howto/hoophouse.html

[Greenbank]

Am I cruel to have no sympathy for a Suburban driver? The truckers I can feel for, but they should just be passing the cost to the rest of us.

I'm not sure what they think is going to happen. If oil costs (made up figures) $60 a barrel, and therefore it costs $3.00 a gallon for gas, the only way gas gets cheaper is if the government subsidizes it, which just means we end up paying for it anyway.

[glenn kangiser]

Boy, Greenbank-- am I glad my wife drives a Mercedes SUV.  It does get 20 miles per gallon though. :-/

I also agree - if we want the big car we have to pay the price - but being a cheaper product- why are the truckers being made to pay more for diesel

I also drive a Kenworth conventional crane/welding truck.  Over $300 for a tank of fuel to run about 3 days hurts -even if you try to pass most of the cost on-- guess we better hope we get a handle on the middle east pretty soon, eh

[Greenbank]

Glenn, I have an old F250 I use for hauling and general errands in the rain when motorcycling is too miserable, so I'm not able to stand proud on the "non gas guzzling" front.  

That said, I knew when I bought it that it pretty much sucked at using fuel, and at $3 a gallon it will cost me $150 to fill up both tanks. I almost perversely like the high fuel prices because it provides a powerful incentive to use it wisely. (Article today in the local paper says our waterways are most threatened by car exhaust, another reason to like high fuel prices, again, in a perverse sort of way.)

A lot of folks own vehicles like Suburbans and Durangos and use them 98% of the time for single-person commuting. I have zero sympathy for them--as you said, it's a choice. Maybe I'm just a horrible person.  

Here's what it will cost you, the Average Person, to run a brand-new 2005 Suburban. Average price: $45K (!). Tax will bring that to about $50K here in Washington. If you finance 40K of that over 60 months at their 2.9% rate, the monthly payment will be $710. If you drive 15,000 a year at an average of 16mpg, that's $235 a month at $2.99 a gallon. Insurance is probably about $100 a month. So that's over $1000 a month for wheels. Wild. And at the end of those five years, the residual value will be pretty poor, too.

Heck, at $235 a month for gas, that Suburban driver in the article could save enough in gas in six months (if they switched to a 30mpg car) to buy something like my beat up but reliable old F250 and keep it around for those times you need a hauler. Not glamourous, but then neither is the Suburban. Heck, split the cost with the neighbor, and share it. I've often been the only one of my friends with a full size truck, and I'm happy to let them use it for what it's good for.

And maybe I'm weird, but I'd just as readily pay the concrete guy extra if gas shoots up as I would if concrete gets more expensive. Why would I expect him to eat a cost he has no control over?

This has got to be good news for railroads. They are far thriftier with fuel per pound/mile than trucks.

Edit: I found a fascinating discussion of passenger transport in the 20th century, and the fuel efficiency of various types of transport:

http://www.lafn.org/~dave/trans/energy/fuel-eff-20th-1.html

Railroads are still king of freight, but the case for passenger railroads isn't so good.

[jonsey/downunder]

Hey Glenn,
Ya reckon you got problems! I got a whole fleet to run.
http://users.tpg.com.au/jonsey/countryplans/fleet3.jpg

Plus the sports car
http://users.tpg.com.au/jonsey/images/yellabike.jpg

And the old ladys runabout
http://users.tpg.com.au/jonsey/images/e-bike3.jpg

jonesy  

[Jimmy C.]

Last night it took $28.00 to fill up my honda civic!

10 gallons! OmG!

I am soooo. glad I traded in my Nissan Frontier truck that got 18MPG last October for the new Civic that gives me 39MPG.
 
 4 years ago I could Fill up my wifey's Civic for $11.50.  

I still miss my truck..

The civic does not like to carry 5- 80 pound bags of concrete!

[glenn kangiser]

Jonesy - at the price of air, how do you manage to keep that fleet running

By the way - the government is succeeding on charging for air now too-- studys for variances and permits for wind generators in some California areas are $2000 or more --for a wind generator that doesn't cost that much -- seems some bureaucrats and whiners deem them unsightly.

[Daddymem]

You should see the stink the rich and powaful are raising here about Nantucket and wind power.  I can't think of a time on Nantucket where it wasn't windy....seems like a no brainer to me but what do I know....

http://www.capewind.org/

http://www.capecodonline.com/special/windfarm/

[glenn-k]

All my power for this property has come from wind and solar for over 3 years now.  PGE -Power company is not allowed here except to trim trees under the neighbors line which crosses my property.

Why can't they see the light?  -a little  joke there-  :-/

I guess I must be public enemy number 1 with my evil 7 foot blades spinning recklessly in an unsightly manner across the skyline.  There goes the neighborhood. No dead birds yet - either that or the cat eats them - in reality more birds die crashing into clean windows than are killed by generator blades.  Besides only the stupid ones crash into the blades -- law of survival of the fittest - we could eventually create a superior strain of bird that is impervious to wind generator blades.    

[Neil]

Assuming that some of what Kunstler will come to pass in the next decade, what should one do to prepare?  A few years ago I had a conspiracy theorist neighbor who advocated food hoarding and a garden.  Food hoarding sounds impractical for something potentially a few years away, but as someone else mentioned there is a learning curve to gardening so starting a garden now makes sense.  Also, if everything requiring oil for manufacturing (e.g. PVs) will be harder and thus costlier to manufacture maybe it'd be good to hoard them.

Neil

[jonseyhay]

Can't see much point in hoarding food. Sooner or later, it will run out, or someone with a bigger stick will come and take it off you, Better to acquire and hoard knowledge, much more valuable. That makes you useful to the guy with the big stick.  And, don't forget feet will still work when the oil runs out.
jonesy.

[glenn-k]

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
    Chinese Proverb

Learning gardening now will be a resource you will use for the rest of your life.  Drp  irrigation or mini sprinklers on a timer is another resource that will keep you from having to worry about watering if you are short on time.

[jonseyhay]

Glenn,
Any danger of a detailed look at your solar BBQ. Maybe a short essay on how you built it and how it works.
jonesy