"The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman

[n74tg]

There's a catchy title for ya.  It's also one of the most interesting books I've ever read in my life. 

This guy founded Stratfor (strategic forecasting).  Every week I get a free email discussing some aspect of world politics or economics.  Of course, if I paid $100 a year, the emails would be much more detailed.  Still, the free ones are mostly worth reading. He discusses lots of things we never hear about in either the major or alternative media.

So, when I came across this book at the library, I took a chance.  Glad I did, because it's been a real trip.

For instance, some of the stuff we read on the internet says the American empire is on it's last legs, imminent collapse, etc.  Friedman goes just the opposite, stating this century will be the "American century"; and then he goes on to give lots of reasons why; militarily, economically, politically.  He paints an interesting picture.  The U.S. will have plenty of problems in this century, but everyone elses problems are even bigger than ours.  That has been proven to an extent recently as we hear/read about the economic problems in the European Union (specifically Greece).

Here's something he discusses that particularly interested me.  He said that the main reason we lost in Vietnam, have apparently lost in Iraq and are losing in Afghanistan is that a conventional "victory" (picture the Allies WW2 victory for comparison) is not what our goal is or was.  What the goal is/was is using the minimal amount of force (troops, lives, assets, equipment, dollars, etc) to disrupt our adversaries and to prevent them from making any substantial changes to the world power structure on which America sits at the top.  I've always wondered why we seem to be spending so much effort trying to capture/kill bin Laden.  Something I had never put two and two together to realize was that his goal is to unite all the Muslim factions around the world.  Now, if he succeded in doing that, then the world power structure would be changed dramatically and in a direction that could seriously affect America's future.  So, our involvement is to keep the Shia and Sunni from uniting, to keep them stirred up, hating and fighting one another (just as they have done for the last 1000 years), because doing so doesn't threaten our long term power in the world. 

Because I write about this here, don't assume I automatically agree with all he says.  It is however interesting to read and think about.

One last thing I'll mention that was also of interest.  I thought earth's population was/is pretty much exploding.  Friedman discusses this at length, and in fact the birth rate is dramatically falling pretty much all over the planet.  All of the advanced countries have average birth rates down around 1.5 to 1.6 (children per woman), where 2.1 is what is considered to be the required rate to maintain a stable population.  While sub-Saharan Africa and India are not yet down to these low rates, their rates have been falling pretty rapidly too.  So, if you listen to Friedman, we are not about to explode our population to the point of endangering us all.  In fact, by 2050 the world's population will be decreasing. 

Agree with him if you want, or disagree with him.  I didn't write this to start up a debate on these issues.  I wrote it to share the fact that this has been an interesting and thought provoking book.  Consider adding it to your read list.

[RainDog]

Thank you. That goes up high on my short list of books to get. I'll check my local library for it today.

[MountainDon]

I haven't read that one, but I have read something that has the same statements on global population trends.   

[glenn kangiser]

Thanks, Tony. 

Interesting sounding.