Thoughts on future lumber prices

Started by suburbancowboy, May 26, 2010, 02:13:50 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

suburbancowboy

I was planning on starting the big cabin cabin this spring when the lumber prices decided to more than double.  The 7000 dollar budget that I had build the shell was not nearly enough.  As an example 7/16 osb went from under 7 dollars to 14.97.  So I was going to put thing on hold until next year and by all my wood in feb. when it is at it's cheapest.  But I have been watching lumber futures and they are dropping.  Also in the last week osb has fallen to 12.47 here in Utah.  Does anybody have a feel for or knowledge of where lumber prices will be by say august?  I think if they drop another 20 percent I have a chance to get it framed late summer or the fall time frame.  I guess in the mean time I will be staying in the 12X16 two story bunk house.

I got up to it a couple of weeks ago and only had to go through one 3 foot show drift in one shady spot.  It was good to see that the bunk house survived the winter.

JavaMan

Well, honestly, you are doing more than I am by watching the lumber futures.  I think if I watched the futures, I would be constantly paralyzed by waiting for better prices.  But, then again, if I knew that in two weeks it the lumber I needed would cost $100 less, I might wait, but to simply think about what might happen farther out than that, I think I'd be always watching and waiting.  


And then, the moment I took a couple days off from it, it would go back up and I'd have missed it. :(

I guess my thoughts are to simply get done what I can now, and hope that things get better (priced) in the future, rather than wait for just the optimum time.  Sorta like getting married or having kids.  If I had waited until I could afford either of those, I would still be single and childless.  ::) ???


muldoon

Basically, you need to understand what the dollar is worth.

 

This is the us dx, us dollar exchange.  You can see that in the past few months the dollar has gained in value.  When the dollar goes up, it goes farther.  Prices fall.  Things get cheaper.  oil.  electricity.  houses.  stocks.  lumber.

The dollar is going up because the other competing currencies are going down.  This is the Euro and the Yuan.  The euro is in a full on debt crises, the china bubble is popping, and latin america remains a horrid pile of corruption and violence.  There is still much wealth in this world that is seeking safety and they are driving the value of the US dollar up. 

So if you want to front run lumber prices, here is what you do.  Watch google news, when you see Spain debt auction failure, Portugal banks downgraded, UK pushing austerity, Ireland unable to make rollever of bonds, Greece in flames ..  wait.  The dollar will increase in value from such trivialities. 

If you see something to the effect of "us dollar plummets" or "us bond auction fails" or the like, you will know the tide has turned and that the bond vigilantes are now after the newest blood in the water which would be us.  If thats the case, you need to spend those dollars you have fast.  However, it might be just a tad late to actually start such a project. 

Bottom line, make headway while you can.  eliminate debt, save dollars for the time being because they get more valuable every day (you can get more for them), but most essentially, build assets now.  especially productive assets. 

were all greece.  were all california.  the future is here, it just is not evenly distributed just yet. 

MushCreek

I'm curious as to why OSB went up so much (nearly 300% here in FL). Other lumber went up a little- maybe 25%. I've heard it was all used up by the various earthquakes in Haiti and Chile? I have the same concerns, as I will be building in less than a year. When it's all said and done, our little homestead will be bought and paid for with no mortgage, and I'll be able to produce much, if not all of my own food should push come to shove. Much of our 'wealth' will be invested in this; I have no idea where to put the rest of it.
Jay

I'm not poor- I'm financially underpowered.